This stems from other conversations in various threads, but I thought it might be deserving of it's own.
Could Sean Monahan have the relative value of someone like Joe Nieuwendyk, who landed us Jarome Iginla?
My own thought is that Sean still has enough value to be potentially used in an Eichel trade, or used an a trade to acquire additional pieces for that trade.
But, using Nieuwendyk as a comparable seemed like a good place to start my analysis.
First, the trade in question:
It took place in December, prior to the WJC where Iginla had a bit of a coming out party. He had started the season strong in Kamloops, and had been selected 11th overall in the most recent draft after a just under point per game pre draft season in the WHL.
I'm not sure if anyone can provide any additional context on Cory Millen as I can't beyond statistics; I don't really remember him playing for the flames, and the stats show he played ~90 games for us with 40 points over parts of 2 seasons for us before moving on to play in germany. League journeyman type of career, a la stempniak or versteeg it looks.
11th overall in a recent draft, and a journeyman for a star center. Sounds not bad; for comparison 10-14 in the 2020 draft is Perfetti, Askarov, Lundell, Jarvis, Holloway. Those are some good prospects.
The relative value of prospects has seemingly increased: the length of team control and the ability to stretch cap space to talent ratio with low value entry contracts is invaluable in the Cap world. So it's not apples to apples. But, relative value difference may be offset by Nieuwendyk's contract dispute and desire for a much higher dollar value than calgary could afford (Dallas signed him to a
contract worth almost double what Calgary's reported offer had been) versus Sean Monahan's relatively cost effective in the cap world 6.375 for 2 more years.
Comparing Nieuwendyk to Monahan is an attractive match; they're both tall, large Centers who have a reputation for a shoot first mentality and finding open ice. Neither is known for using their size to bully people on the ice, but they're not afraid of getting to the middle and parking there. They both generate similar amounts of shots per season, both have a similarly high (~+5%) Shooting average compared to league averages over their career.
Career wise in Calgary, Nieuwendyk debuted at the tail end of his D+1 season at the age of 20. He scored at a 1.07 ppg pace in the regular season. 314 goals in 577 games in 9 years.
Though he never had any major injuries, he never played any full seasons. He was captain of the club and was part of a cup winning squad, though his playoff performance was notably less impressive than his regular season.
Sean Monahan started for the flames as a 19 year old the season after he was drafted. He has played 8 seasons for the club, 591 games and has 439 points, 204 goals.
Sean's stats have been relatively consistent in the playoffs, where his 0.7 ppg is only 0.04 ppg off of his regular season career of 0.74.
So, Joe had a somewhat more impressive career for the flames just off the cuff. Of course, the team Sean has been on is nowhere near the team that Nieuwendyk played on for most of his time in Calgary, and yet still chronically underachieved in the playoffs... oh the life of a Flames fan.
Trying to era adjust for the periods is a bit difficult. I selected the mid point year in both of their respective careers with the flames to compare the eras: 89-90 for Joe (his best season; 45 goals; 95 points) and 2017-2018 for Sean (His 2nd best season with 31 goals;4 points).
Average goals for in 89-90 was 295; Calgary had most in the league with 348.
Average goals for in 17-18 was 240 (* this is up from the lull in the 220s of the prior year, which could also be used as a mid point in monahans career.) The flames were 27th in the league with only 216 for. (WHAT A BAD TIME TO BE A FLAMES FAN)
Joe was in on (45/348) 12.9% of the flames goals that season. Disappointing follow up to the cup winning season as they fail to pass the kings in the conference semi finals.
Sean was in on (31/216) 14.3% of the flames goals in the corresponding season. This is a season where league scoring in general is down ~20% from the Joe's time. Arguably much more impressive given the relative lack of team depth and talent.
If we adjust Sean's career stats to match the era of Nieuwendyk, it gives him approximately 85 more points (41 goals). That would put him at a more comparable to Nieuwendyk: 245 goals and 524 points in 591 games.
It's not a perfect translation, and again I don't think you can account for the much higher quality of teammate that Nieuwendyk was working with the majority of his career. But, I don't think their relative value can be seen as far off. If you remove Monahan's first season and match his age to Nieuwendyk it gets even more flattering as a comparison.
I think Jeff Carter is another player with a similar history to Monahan prior to his trade for Columbus, and also landed a huge package.
Now, Monahan's injury history is starting to pile up. But, couldn't that be said of someone like Jack Eichel too? Monahan's injuries all seem to be spread out in different areas of his body. Good news that this isn't again in his wrists for example. If the surgery fixes him, he could still have a very productive career ahead. After all, he leads the flames in playoff points over his time with the flames:
The same wasn't true for Joe:
And Sean has 2 more GWG than Joe (these guys are pretty even.)
1. I want more respect for Sean Monahan's value to the team!
2. I want more respect for Sean Monahan's relative trade value.