2021 NHL Draft

[Arsenal14]

I always really enjoy seeing Button's list because he isn't afraid to have strong opinions. As mentioned L'Heuerux at 8 and Svechkov at 10 are way higher than any of the other sources I've seen. Simon Robertsson isn't even on his list and Fabian Lysell is way lower than anybody else has him. Sometimes he's right in hindsight, sometimes not but at least it isn't just putting players in consensus spots like some of the other sources tend to do. Corey Pronman is similar - I don't always agree with his takes but he at least has opinions and will break from the pack. In Pronman's case it tend to be rating small skilled players higher than most and goalies and bigger physical players lower. Not sure if Button has a "type".

[Monahammer]

I've listened to Button talk and I think he'd be the first to admit that he can fall in love with certain players, and has as many whiffs as he has hits. But I think his lists fare as well or better than most over time.

[Sandman]

Chances are, if Craig really likes L’Heureux and Svechkov, then Todd must really like them too, amirite?

[Hanna Sniper]

Originally Posted by Sandman

Chances are, if Craig really likes L’Heureux and Svechkov, then Todd must really like them too, amirite?

No, their observation are independent of each other,

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Sandman

Chances are, if Craig really likes L’Heureux and Svechkov, then Todd must really like them too, amirite?

Interesting to look back at the last couple of drafts

Connor Zary: Ranked #11 by Craig (drafted 24)
Jakeub Pelletier Ranked #33 by Craig (drafted 26)
Juso Valimaki: Ranked #17 by Craig (drafted 16)
Matthew Tkachuk: Ranked #5 by Craig (drafted 5)
Rasmus Anderson: Ranked #33 by Craig (drafted 53)

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Interesting to look back at the last couple of drafts

Connor Zary: Ranked #11 by Craig (drafted 24)
Jakeub Pelletier Ranked #33 by Craig (drafted 26)
Juso Valimaki: Ranked #17 by Craig (drafted 16)
Matthew Tkachuk: Ranked #5 by Craig (drafted 5)
Rasmus Anderson: Ranked #33 by Craig (drafted 53)

Exactly. I'm sure Craig does his own homework, but there's gotta be situations where they're having lunch or visiting Mom, and the topic of prospects in the draft comes up. "So where do you have L'Heureux? Really? That high?"

I get into deep conversations with my brothers about the draft, and I'm not even a professional scout...

[Poe969]

Yet...

[Hanna Sniper]

Originally Posted by Sandman

Exactly. I'm sure Craig does his own homework, but there's gotta be situations where they're having lunch or visiting Mom, and the topic of prospects in the draft comes up. "So where do you have L'Heureux? Really? That high?"

I get into deep conversations with my brothers about the draft, and I'm not even a professional scout...

Its obviously your not a professional scout, but I highly doubt that you would throw your brother under the bus each and every year trying to get him fired

I wouldn't be surprised if Graig submits a list to the Flames, any good brother would, rather than selfishly sabotaging him. Graig isn't paid by the Flames and he's not tied to being secretive about his numbers

Even Grant's list alone shows you how out of phase they really are

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by Hanna Sniper

Its obviously your not a professional scout, but I highly doubt that you would throw your brother under the bus each and every year trying to get him fired

I wouldn't be surprised if Graig submits a list to the Flames, any good brother would, rather than selfishly sabotaging him. Graig isn't paid by the Flames and he's not tied to being secretive about his numbers

Even Grant's list alone shows you how out of phase they really are

What?

[Calgary4LIfe]

I like most lists, especially the ones that describe the player and make you understand why the person putting together the list really feels that way.


McKenzie's lists are aggregate, so no explanation needed really.


I may not agree with Pronman, or Craig, or whomever, but they put their lists out there every year, and they usually describe why they feel that way about each selection. They are able to defend it. To me, that's worth more than just a list that is just stat watching with vague descriptions. FC describes the players in-depth too. The Hockey Writers. Etc.


It is a tough thing to do, IMO. How do you make the top 50 kids sound different enough from one another, even if you have watched them a lot. How do you pick up on their strengths and weaknesses, especially on a year like this? How do you start ranking them. Do that, and then explain it to me and defend it, and I will appreciate your work a heck of a lot more.


Craig Button is often right. He is often wrong. I respect him because he does his own thing, explains what he sees and defends it.

[albertGQ]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Interesting to look back at the last couple of drafts

Connor Zary: Ranked #11 by Craig (drafted 24)
Jakeub Pelletier Ranked #33 by Craig (drafted 26)
Juso Valimaki: Ranked #17 by Craig (drafted 16)
Matthew Tkachuk: Ranked #5 by Craig (drafted 5)
Rasmus Anderson: Ranked #33 by Craig (drafted 53)

We drafted Tkachuk 6th

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Interesting to look back at the last couple of drafts

Connor Zary: Ranked #11 by Craig (drafted 24)
Jakeub Pelletier Ranked #33 by Craig (drafted 26)
Juso Valimaki: Ranked #17 by Craig (drafted 16)
Matthew Tkachuk: Ranked #5 by Craig (drafted 5)
Rasmus Anderson: Ranked #33 by Craig (drafted 53)

Craig also had Nikolayev in the middle of the first round, if I recall correctly.

[Sandman]

Forgot to post about one guy from the U-18's that I thought I had in there: LW William Stromgren, 6'3"190lbs. 2g/3a/5pts in 7 games. Big power winger who's skating looked good, and his big shot was on full display. He's said to be more of a playmaker, and his stats in every league look like it-lower goals, high assists. In the Hockeyettan, Sweden's 3rd highest league, he did quite well-1 goal, 11 assists in 11 games. He was the top scorer on his J20 team with 10 goals and 8 assists in 14 games. Looks to able to play in traffic, as he stickhandles well, and leans into checkers going to the net, with good puck protection. Didn't look like a guy who initiates contact all the time, but he doesn't shy away from it, will muck for loose pucks, and works hard. Most pundits have him in the second round.

Just for perspective, in the 2018-19 U-18's, Zion Nybeck had 5 pts, Holtz had 7 pts, and Raymond had 8 pts.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Thanks for all this, Sandman.

This sure doesn’t sound like a “weak draft” like a lot are saying, I think people are only calling it weak because of the limited info we all have.

[iloveicedhockey]

I remember being bored one lunchtime in the run up to the Pelletier draft and looking at outliers from button's list and noted that Pelletier was ranked higher on his than most.

Maybe some small correlation but by the time the flames usually pick in the middle it's usual a gong show anyway.

[NewFan]

If we lost last 2 games we would be sitting bottom 5 in the standing. But they will win a couple games and will be at 15th as usual. Even you don't know who they will pick at 5th overall, I'm sure the trade value of that draft could have a very high value.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

Thanks for all this, Sandman.

This sure doesn’t sound like a “weak draft” like a lot are saying, I think people are only calling it weak because of the limited info we all have.

It's weak in terms of elite talent at the top. The depth and quality isn't bad.

[1qqaaz]

If the Flames win every remaining game, the only team they can "pass" in the standings is Chicago. The Flames would do this by winning 2 of the last 3 games. The Flames cannot mathematically catch up to Dallas, NY Rangers or Philly. Arizona isn't picking.

However, the only team that can pass Calgary in points is Vancouver. That's only possible if Vancouver goes 3-0-1 and Calgary goes 0-3.
That's extremely unlikely.

So Calgary is pretty much locked into the 11th-12th picks.
Based on Tankathon, these are the odds (Arizona messes things up a bit):


1st OA: 3.0% chance
2nd OA: 3.3% chance
11th OA: 78.9% chance
12th OA: 14.4% chance
Total: 99.6% chance.
The chances of picking 10th a more than nothing (I mentioned Vancouver), and the chances of picking 13th are zero.

So after picking 11th/12th, a top 2 pick is the next most likely option.
So start looking at who you have 11th, because that's very likely will the Flames will pick.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

If the Flames win every remaining game, the only team they can "pass" in the standings is Chicago. The Flames would do this by winning 2 of the last 3 games. The Flames cannot mathematically catch up to Dallas. NY Rangers or Philly. Arizona isn't picking.

However, the only team that pass Calgary in points is Vancouver. That's only possible if Vancouver goes 3-0-1 and Calgary goes 3-0.
That's extremely unlikely.

So Calgary is pretty much locked into the 11th-12th picks.
Based on Tankathon, these are the odds (Arizona messes things up a bit):

10th OA: 0% chance
11th OA: 78.9% chance
12th OA: 14.4% chance

The Flames have a 6.3% chance of winning the lottery a picking top 2.
So after picking 11th/12th, a top 2 pick is the next most likely option.

So start looking at who you have 11th, because that's very likely will the Flames will pick.

At this stage, I hope we don't even use our pick this year. I hope Buffalo uses our pick.

[1qqaaz]

I'm going to criticize my previous post.
The chances of picking 12th are higher than 14.4%. Like I said, if the Flames win 2 of the last 3 games, they pick 12th.
I would say the chances of that are more than 14.4%.
In fact, the chances might even be over 50%.