[GDT] Flames at Pens - 5:00PM MDT

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Janko should thank his lucky stars he isn't a regular healthy scratch or playing in Stockton. The guy is just out there killing time. Certainly not the reason the team is doing as badly as it is, but he really brings nothing to the table. Such a disappointing player.

[Karl]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

I realize you just want to rant but:

Jankowski prior to this season had 31 goals on 325 unblocked shot attempts (9.54%)

Jankowski this season has 22 unblocked shot attempts.

With luck matching his previous rate he should still have 2 goals this season.

Further, Jankowski has been on the ice for 140 unblocked shot attempts for. Not even one of those has bounced off a skate or stick or trickled through. His expected on-ice goals count is up to 7.02 based on the context of the shot attempts that have been madd while he is on the ice.

You can whine about Janko's play all you want (something I did not even comment on) but we've seen players playing far worse get ten game winning streaks worth of bounces in their favour.

It's more than that.

Like I said in my previous post, it's also about how Janko looks out there. He's not just unlucky but even more so he's looking wholly unimpressive. As I said, even Rieder and Rinaldo look like they're doing more good stuff out there than Janko, and they're not NHL quality players. That's no good and very worrying.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Karl

It's more than that.

Like I said in my previous post, it's also about how Janko looks out there.

How someone looks out there is influenced by their luck. Just look at people raving about Lindholm's season when he was shooting unsustainable percentages.

[Karl]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

How someone looks out there is influenced by their luck. Just look at people raving about Lindholm's season when he was shooting unsustainable percentages.

Only partially. Do you honestly think that Janko's looked actually good on the ice for more than rare or fleeting moments this year? I can't.

Or what about 'Oh god. Janko got robbed and was truly unlucky not to get a point there or to not score a goal there'. I can think of maybe 2 or 3 occasions to this point that I've sort of thought that.

And even defensively, although the advanced may say otherwise, he hasn't looked very good in that regard either, especially on the PK.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Karl

Only partially. Do you honestly think that Janko's looked actually good on the ice for more than rare or fleeting moments this year? I can't.

I don't think Jankowski's looked good any more than I think he's looked bad. He's looked like a 4C who might be more successful on the wing, and he's been playing a 4C role... and he's undeniably been unlucky at both ends.

[bubbsy]

I grow more and more annoyed by "PDO". This team has terrible PDO, but this team also just looks absolutely useless most shifts/periods/games.

It's their game execution that is resulting in a weak PDO, and not just a weak PDO resulting in the weak results. As such, they can't just keep doing the same thing and expect PDO numbers to "regress to the mean".

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

I don't think Jankowski's looked good any more than I think he's looked bad. He's looked like a 4C who might be more successful on the wing, and he's been playing a 4C role... and he's undeniably been unlucky at both ends.

Janko has been undeniably unlucky on all of his whopping 12 shots on goal this year? He's on pace for roughly 40 shots, which isn't even half of his total from last season. If he were making more of an impact I might agree with you but to have totals that insanely low tells a big part of the story. Across the entire league, there are maybe 3-5 forwards who play as regularly as him with worse shot figures.

For comparison - Alan Quine amassed 12 shots in only 9 games, while seeing under 10 minutes per game of ice time. Jankowski has regressed into worse than replacement level.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

I grow more and more annoyed by "PDO". This team has terrible PDO, but this team also just looks absolutely useless most shifts/periods/games.

It's their game execution that is resulting in a weak PDO, and not just a weak PDO resulting in the weak results. As such, they can't just keep doing the same thing and expect PDO numbers to "regress to the mean".

For sure. It doesn't take into account the quality of shot or the quality given up.

Generally those things even out, but xGF% is probably the best one for how the team is playing.

The Flames have the 30th ranked PDO ... so unlucky. But are they? They're the 16th ranked team in five on five xGF%, and 20th ranked xGF% in all situations.

The team is now ranked 26th in points %, so unlucky to some degree, but not to the extent suggested by PDO

[EVERLAST]

Whoever posted the pickle before last game needs to repost it.....it worked.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Janko has been undeniably unlucky on all of his whopping 12 shots on goal this year? He's on pace for roughly 40 shots, which isn't even half of his total from last season.

For comparison - Alan Quine amassed 12 shots in only 9 games, while seeing under 10 minutes per game of ice time. Jankowski has regressed into worse than replacement level.

Offensively yes. And this matches the eye test. He doesn't get shots on net, he doesn't get in on the forecheck or use his size. He's invisible.

But defensively he's also invisible which is a good thing.

He's second in CF/60, SA60, 3rd in xGA60, 1st in SCA60 and 2nd in HDCA60

The guy has been quite solid defensively (or his linemates have and he's along for the ride)

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Offensively yes. And this matches the eye test. He doesn't get shots on net, he doesn't get in on the forecheck or use his size. He's invisible.

But defensively he's also invisible which is a good thing.

He's second in CF/60, SA60, 3rd in xGA60, 1st in SCA60 and 2nd in HDCA60

The guy has been quite solid defensively (or his linemates have and he's along for the ride)

That's all well and good in a bubble, but his minutes have gone from similar to last season earlier on, to that of someone who just isn't moving the needle enough for a coach to give him a regular shift. If he was truly playing quite good defensively as you say, I'd imagine Peters would be using him much more than he is and certainly not trending into the 7-8 minute range that a guy like Rinaldo would be getting.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

That's all well and good in a bubble, but his minutes have gone from similar to last season earlier on, to that of someone who just isn't moving the needle enough for a coach to give him a regular shift. If he was truly playing quite good defensively as you say, I'd imagine Peters would be using him much more than he is and certainly not trending into the 7-8 minute range that a guy like Rinaldo would be getting.

I'm sure he's not facing the toughest of competition for sure, but I'm guessing the reason he isn't getting healthy scratched often is because of his defensive game.

It's not much to write home about, but it does suggest he's above replacement level.

[TheIronMaiden]

Unfortunately the Flames have painted themselves into a corner where every game feels like a must win.

[Phaneufenstein]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Unfortunately the Flames have painted themselves into a corner where every game feels like a must win.

Are you serious?

It's game #27 of 82.

[Barnet Flame]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Goes without saying that despite Pitt's injuries this is still going to be a massive challenge.

Hoping they got some confidence from that win on Saturday.

If Rittich starts I hope he's stapled to his crease.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Janko should thank his lucky stars he isn't a regular healthy scratch or playing in Stockton. The guy is just out there killing time. Certainly not the reason the team is doing as badly as it is, but he really brings nothing to the table. Such a disappointing player.

I've always wondered why this team has such tolerance for players that cease to contribute. I mean the ones that are not hard to move around. We commit to certain players beyond their usefulness after they have one good season or part of a season. I don't know whether they're holding out hope for a return to form or what it is, but all I know is its way too easy to stay in this line up. There needs to be a more competitive culture within the organization to earn ice and NHL pay.

When Janko can get away with putting up a shot every other game, let alone a point, and still keep an NHL spot, you're not going to get a motivated player.

We're way too loyal to players for what some of them bring on the ice.

[bax]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

I've always wondered why this team has such tolerance for players that cease to contribute. I mean the ones that are not hard to move around. We commit to certain players beyond their usefulness after they have one good season or part of a season. I don't know whether they're holding out hope for a return to form or what it is, but all I know is its way too easy to stay in this line up. There needs to be a more competitive culture within the organization to earn ice and NHL pay.

When Janko can get away with putting up a shot every other game, let alone a point, and still keep an NHL spot, you're not going to get a motivated player.

We're way too loyal to players for what some of them bring on the ice.

Who would you suggest replacing him with? I don't think it's a loyalty thing, there just isn't anyone better to replace him right now.

Besides, Janko scored 31 goals the last two seasons and was a big part of our PK. I don't think it's that unreasonable to give him 20 games to try and figure it out before replacing him with an AHL guy

[Karl]

Originally Posted by bax

Who would you suggest replacing him with? I don't think it's a loyalty thing, there just isn't anyone better to replace him right now.

Besides, Janko scored 31 goals the last two seasons and was a big part of our PK. I don't think it's that unreasonable to give him 20 games to try and figure it out before replacing him with an AHL guy

Between Janko, Frolik, Rieder, Quine and Rinaldo, it's like pick your poison and try choosing which of those very useless guys you'd rather have playing in your lineup.

Like choosing which you think will be the least unpleasant of the 5 turds.

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by Barnet Flame

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Phaneufenstein

Are you serious?

It's game #27 of 82.

Yes I am serious, if the Flames keep losing they will dig themselves a hole they can't get out of.

I trust the Snake, and right now they are on pace for 78 points. 18 points or 9 wins short of the sacred 96 points.

They will need to get 71 points in 55 games for the Snake prophecy to be true. The quickest way of doing that is 35 wins and 1 OTL. Meaning that they can only lose 19 more games in regulation before they have missed the threshold, even fewer then that if you consider that winning 35 of the next 55 to be completely unrealistic. By all means this is a win now or never scenario.