[GDT] Flames at Pens - 5:00PM MDT

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Mattman

Really good to hear Brodie is back!

I honestly didn't mind Rinaldo in the lineup. He adds more than Reider

Rinaldo was playing hungry. I agree with you but I think he might have a short shelf life.

[united]

Optional skate yesterday as expected, per the beat writers, so hopefully the boys had a good team bonding rager Saturday night and are fired up to earn another W tonight.

Awesome news on Brodie.

[Kovaz]

Curious to see the impact of Brodie coming back. For all the criticism he's gotten over the years, he's still a net positive in a top pairing role. In fact, when you go pair-by-pair, Brodano is the only D pairing with significant ice time with a positive goal differential:

By TOI:

• Hanifin-Hamonic: 294:55 TOI, 8GF 19GA (29.6%)
• Giordano-Brodie: 191:55 TOI, 10GF 8GA (55.6%)
• Kylington-Andersson: 175:07 TOI, 5GF 6GA (45.5%)
• Giordano-Andersson: 164:13 TOI, 3GF 10GA (23.08%)
• Brodie-Stone: 75:37 TOI, 2GF 4GA (33.33%)
• Hanifin-Andersson: 68:05 TOI, 1GF 1GA (50%)
• Giordano-Hamonic: 61:16 TOI, 3GF 3GA (50%)
• Hanifin-Stone: 54:16 TOI, 2GF 2GA (50%)

Some real ugly numbers in there. But the pairings of Gio-Brodie and Hanifin-Andersson have both been solid and they've got solid possession stats to back it up too (both >53% in Corsi and xGF). I'm hopeful that a lack of chemistry in our D core was the driving force behind the losing streak, and by getting back to a familiar top4 with chemistry we can start finding our game again.

[GioforPM]

He might not be paired with Gio tonight, not because of strategic lineup decisions, but more to ease him back in.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

Curious to see the impact of Brodie coming back. For all the criticism he's gotten over the years, he's still a net positive in a top pairing role. In fact, when you go pair-by-pair, Brodano is the only D pairing with significant ice time with a positive goal differential:

By TOI:

• Hanifin-Hamonic: 294:55 TOI, 8GF 19GA (29.6%)
• Giordano-Brodie: 191:55 TOI, 10GF 8GA (55.6%)
• Kylington-Andersson: 175:07 TOI, 5GF 6GA (45.5%)
• Giordano-Andersson: 164:13 TOI, 3GF 10GA (23.08%)
• Brodie-Stone: 75:37 TOI, 2GF 4GA (33.33%)
• Hanifin-Andersson: 68:05 TOI, 1GF 1GA (50%)
• Giordano-Hamonic: 61:16 TOI, 3GF 3GA (50%)
• Hanifin-Stone: 54:16 TOI, 2GF 2GA (50%)

Some real ugly numbers in there. But the pairings of Gio-Brodie and Hanifin-Andersson have both been solid and they've got solid possession stats to back it up too (both >53% in Corsi and xGF). I'm hopeful that a lack of chemistry in our D core was the driving force behind the losing streak, and by getting back to a familiar top4 with chemistry we can start finding our game again.

Yeah three good pairings by expected results ...

Giordano - Brodie 192 Min 56.32 xGF%
Giordano - Andersson 164 min 54.83 xGF%
Hanifin - Andersson 68 min 53.90 xGF%

Luckily they're using two of them at the top of the food chain tonight.

Three more pairs are just under water

Giordano - Hamonic
Davidson - Kylington
Hamonic - Hanifin

Andersson - Kylington hasn't been good

Anything with Stone has been a rough ride

[Cheese]

Projected Lines

FORWARDS

Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm

Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Andrew Mangiapane

Milan Lucic - Derek Ryan - Dillon Dube

Tobias Rieder - Mark Jankowski - Michael Frolik



DEFENCE

Mark Giordano - Rasmus Andersson

Noah Hanifin - Michael Stone

Oliver Kylington - Brandon Davidson



GOALTENDERS

David Rittich

Cam Talbot

I think this will change when Brodie is cleared and in the lineup.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

How long has it been now? Nault brings it up every day. I think the Flames haven’t had a lead since nov 7th.

Yes. The Flames have also not opened the scoring in a game since 3 November: a 4-2 loss in DC. That is nine straight games surrendering the first goal. It was also the last time the Flames scored a goal in the first period. Ten games, one first period goal.

[ForeverFlameFan]

I'm expecting a great effort tonight with TJ back in the lineup.

[blankall]

The absolute thrashing by Pittsburgh last year was what set the Flames on fire and let to them finishing first in the conference. Maybe the Flames can set themselves on the right path this year by thrashing Pittsburgh?

[TheIronMaiden]

Tobias Rieder - Mark Jankowski - Michael Frolik

The penalty kill line, because even when they are even strength it looks like they are on the PK.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Tobias Rieder - Mark Jankowski - Michael Frolik

The penalty kill line, because even when they are even strength it looks like they are on the PK.

That's not really true. That line actually has outstanding underlying numbers.

Jankowski's on-ice luck though... insanely low.

[2Stonedbirds]

Go flam-adiddle...?

[Karl]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

That's not really true. That line actually has outstanding underlying numbers.

Jankowski's on-ice luck though... insanely low.

Jankowski's bad on-ice luck, PDO, whatever we go by from what I've seen doesn't have that much to do with bad luck from my standpoint.

Can you really say that Jankowski's been THAT unlucky? I don't buy that. Or here's another way of putting it. Can you really say Janko's usually been one of the better Flames players but has just been snakebitten? Or, can you say time and again, 'Man, Janko got absolutely robbed there'.

Nope. Janko's been consistently one of if not the weakest and most ineffective Flames on the ice this year regardless of who he's played with or his lesser minutes and deployment. That is what the overall picture tells me. So. Straight up Janko's been general hot garbage this year, with few exceptions, despite the outstanding underlying numbers saying something different.

It's on Janko to turn himself around, not lady luck to bail him out or excuse him for his ####ty play to this part of the year. And that is what those underlying numbers have been doing; giving a weak excuse for his lacklustre play.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Derek Wills @Fan960Wills
T.J. Brodie is skating on a pairing with Mark Giordano...looks like he’ll return to #Flames line-up vs. #LetsGoPens tonight. #CGYvsPIT

Wes Gilbertson @WesGilbertson
#Flames top pair at morning skate in Pittsburgh — Giordano and Brodie.

Looks like Rieder will play on fourth line, Davidson and Rinaldo will be scratched.

Great news about TJ but why in hell is Peters so in love with Toby Reider??? I don't get, the guy sucks.

[Karl]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Great news about TJ but why in hell is Peters so in love with Toby Reider??? I don't get, the guy sucks.

True. But picking from Rieder, Janko, Frolik and Rinaldo is like picking which rotten apple is better.

Basically, it's like pick which of these poisons is less toxic and less harmful to your health.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Great news about TJ but why in hell is Peters so in love with Toby Reider??? I don't get, the guy sucks.

In love? He is on the 4th line, in and out of the lineup. Been no worse than some of the others...good at pk and has speed.

And a goal

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Karl

Jankowski's bad on-ice luck, PDO, whatever we go by from what I've seen doesn't have that much to do with bad luck from my standpoint.

Can you really say that Jankowski's been THAT unlucky? I don't buy that. Or here's another way of putting it. Can you really say Janko's usually been one of the better Flames players but has just been snakebitten? Or, can you say time and again, 'Man, Janko got absolutely robbed there'.

Nope. Janko's been consistently one of if not the weakest and most ineffective Flames on the ice this year regardless of who he's played with or his lesser minutes and deployment. That is what the overall picture tells me. So. Straight up Janko's been general hot garbage this year, with few exceptions, despite the outstanding underlying numbers saying something different.

It's on Janko to turn himself around, not lady luck to bail him out or excuse him for his ####ty play to this part of the year. And that is what those underlying numbers have been doing; giving a weak excuse for his lacklustre play.

I think any player that's been on the ice for over 2 hours without having a single goal scored by his team has to be at least partially unlucky, no?

His numbers suggest he's actually done quite well defensively, but his offensive numbers by a rate standard are way down the list on the team.

[kermitology]

Not expecting much from this group yet. Shootout win meaning that they basically tied and they haven’t held a lead in ages. They’re still pretty terrible, and Pittsburg could just beat the crap out of them.

[Karl]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think any player that's been on the ice for over 2 hours without having a single goal scored by his team has to be at least partially unlucky, no?

His numbers suggest he's actually done quite well defensively, but his offensive numbers by a rate standard are way down the list on the team.

Partially? Yes. Mostly or even largely? Nope. Not to me. He isn't playing well enough or even looking good enough to give me an impression that luck is playing the biggest role in his regression and non-existent offensive numbers.

Rieder and even Rinaldo who are both non NHL calibre hockey players look like they're doing more good out there than Janko.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Karl

Jankowski's bad on-ice luck, PDO, whatever we go by from what I've seen doesn't have that much to do with bad luck from my standpoint.

Can you really say that Jankowski's been THAT unlucky? I don't buy that. Or here's another way of putting it. Can you really say Janko's usually been one of the better Flames players but has just been snakebitten? Or, can you say time and again, 'Man, Janko got absolutely robbed there'.

Nope. Janko's been consistently one of if not the weakest and most ineffective Flames on the ice this year regardless of who he's played with or his lesser minutes and deployment. That is what the overall picture tells me. So. Straight up Janko's been general hot garbage this year, with few exceptions, despite the outstanding underlying numbers saying something different.

It's on Janko to turn himself around, not lady luck to bail him out or excuse him for his ####ty play to this part of the year. And that is what those underlying numbers have been doing; giving a weak excuse for his lacklustre play.

I realize you just want to rant but:

Jankowski prior to this season had 31 goals on 325 unblocked shot attempts (9.54%). Jankowski this season has 22 unblocked shot attempts. With luck matching his previous rate he should still have 2 goals this season. Based on the context of the shot attempts he has taken, he has 2.33 expected goals.

Further, Jankowski has been on the ice for 140 unblocked shot attempts for. Not even one of those has bounced off a skate or stick or trickled through. His expected on-ice goals count is up to 7.02 based on the context of the shot attempts that have been made while he is on the ice.

You can whine about Janko's play all you want (something I did not even comment on) but we've seen players playing far worse get ten game winning streaks worth of bounces in their favour.

No one is saying he should be lighting the world on fire, but it's reasonable to say he should probably have a couple of goals and a couple of assists and have been on the ice for a couple more goals he had no contribution towards.