Sam Bennett Value: Have the Flames held on TOO long? OR is he awesome?

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Why the extremes?

Scoring title? Who has ever come close to suggesting that?

Bennett playing better is a good thing. I see a player that has figured it out and found a role now, which is such a huge thing in the National Hockey League. He generates chances and makes his linemates better. The fact that he's consistently showing up for every game and plays physical is a huge bonus on a team that seems to feed off of energy.

His downside isn't going away though. He doesn't do much with his chances and that may continue or it may not. Last night he scored with his ass, but had two better chances that resulted in shots, but not overly dangerous ones.

If he improves his shot he could pop. If he doesn't he's found a role that will make him a very good third liner on a deep deep team, or an above average complimentary player on second line.

This is a good thing Calgary fans ... don't fight it.

This is where the disconnect happens for me.

How can the same guy be an "above average complimentary" second line player but not produce at least average second line player points?

That just doesn't jive.

I will agree he is starting to play like a real good 3rd line physical banger though...something the club is very short on.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Bennett playing better is a good thing. I see a player that has figured it out and found a role now, which is such a huge thing in the National Hockey League.

I agree.

Originally Posted by Bingo

He generates chances and makes his linemates better.

Errh, half the argument about Bennett is he played with plugs, hence why he sucked. But you can't argue he played with plugs, and sucked, and then go around and say he made his linemates better. Otherwise we wouldn't be complaining about all the plugs he played with.

Originally Posted by Bingo

The fact that he's consistently showing up for every game and plays physical is a huge bonus on a team that seems to feed off of energy.

Yep, need those guys to win. Especially in the playoffs.

Originally Posted by Bingo

If he improves his shot he could pop. If he doesn't he's found a role that will make him a very good third liner on a deep deep team, or an above average complimentary player on second line.

See, this is where the disconnect is. "Great energy guy who plays physically, isn't a liability, but doesn't produce offensively as much as you would like" is the definition of a third line player or fourth liner on a Stanley Cup contender. Not an above average complimentary player on a second line.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Woah, I didn't see Transplant99 post and yet nearly said the exact same thing. Ha.

[DeluxeMoustache]

If you have a deep team with 3 scoring lines your second and third will all chip in

Btw, how many points do you think the 6th highest scoring forward (arguably the complementary second liner) typically gets on a good team?

Hint: Sam Bennett’s rookie year stats are in that ballpark

* Oh and there is a minimum wage in the NHL, they aren’t free.

[Bingo]

Hate to break it you guys ...

That's today's NHL. Quite often your 6th forward isn't a highly productive guy. We've seen it with Frolik last year, and maybe Bennett is that guy this year (because Neal doesn't seem to fit).

So I don't see it as a disconnect.

I see it as a depth / salary cap restraint that means you have tweeners between lines often in NHL rosters. Top line guys that are really more suited to the second or third line (Ferland last year). Third line guys that play a second line complimentary role.

If you're Edmonton you have third line guys filling roles on the top two lines so it could be worse!

[Lanny_McDonald]

I agree with Transplant. Bennett is playing better, but unless he starts to score, he's miscast in his role. I like that he's a banger that will stick up for his team mates, but he has to contribute offensively too, especially if he is on the 2nd line. Remember when we complained that Ferland wasn't a good fit, because of his inability to finish consistently? Same should apply here. I like the game that Bennett is playing, but he needs to finish. He really needs to finish.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by New Era

I agree with Transplant. Bennett is playing better, but unless he starts to score, he's miscast in his role. I like that he's a banger that will stick up for his team mates, but he has to contribute offensively too, especially if he is on the 2nd line. Remember when we complained that Ferland wasn't a good fit, because of his inability to finish consistently? Same should apply here. I like the game that Bennett is playing, but he needs to finish. He really needs to finish.

Totally agree in a perfect world.

How many teams have 6 true top six forwards though?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Totally agree in a perfect world.

How many teams have 6 true top six forwards though?

Edmonton had 6 top 2 defencemen.

[Geeoff]

I have a feeling this thread will not age well even by the end of this season.

I consider myself to have been critical of Bennett's play in previous seasons but he is in beast mode right now. I think he will finish as one of the top 6 forwards on the team in scoring. Keep in mind his current stat line includes games in which he played on the 4th line. It's realistic to expect his totals to go up.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

If you have a deep team with 3 scoring lines your second and third will all chip in

Btw, how many points do you think the 6th highest scoring forward (arguably the complementary second liner) typically gets on a good team?

Hint: Sam Bennett’s rookie year stats are in that ballpark

* Oh and there is a minimum wage in the NHL, they aren’t free.

Sixth highest scoring forward on a good team? Probably around 35.

But what that doesn't take into account is injuries, call ups, line juggling, deadline acquisitions, etc. For example, Guentzel wasn't even in the top 6 of scoring forwards for the Penguins in 2017 with his 33 points (in 40 games). He scored 13 goals in the playoffs though...

When you start looking at the Stanley Cup winning teams, which is the goal obviously, that sixth forward is closer to putting up a 45 point pace in the playoffs on average than 35.

As to your "hint." If Bennett was even putting up his rookie numbers, or had for the last couple years, this discussion is quite different. He didn't though, so what's the point?

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Bingo

That's today's NHL. Quite often your 6th forward isn't a highly productive guy. We've seen it with Frolik last year, and maybe Bennett is that guy this year (because Neal doesn't seem to fit).!

Yeah, but one of the problems with the Flames last year was that Frolik (or whoever you want to call the "sixth forward") didn't produce. And why the Flames finished near the bottom of the league in goals. And why they missed the playoffs.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Hate to break it you guys ...

That's today's NHL. Quite often your 6th forward isn't a highly productive guy. We've seen it with Frolik last year, and maybe Bennett is that guy this year (because Neal doesn't seem to fit).

So I don't see it as a disconnect.

I see it as a depth / salary cap restraint that means you have tweeners between lines often in NHL rosters. Top line guys that are really more suited to the second or third line (Ferland last year). Third line guys that play a second line complimentary role.

If you're Edmonton you have third line guys filling roles on the top two lines so it could be worse!

Certainly agree on the Edmonton take....big trouble for that squad.

To the bolded,

Just to keep things simple...there are 31 teams X 6 F's = 186 forwards.

Last year the 186th F in the NHL compiled 34 points...thats Bennetts career high more or less.

Maybe he does start to produce and gets to that level or higher, its just i dont see why that will happen regardless of where he is playing. He has been WAY below average offensively this year, last year and the year before and its not just because "linemates". Its because he isnt very smart in a hockey sense and his shot is very very much below average.

All that being said, maybe this team can buck that trend and have a below average contributing 2nd line guy and still be very successful? Lets hope so.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Sixth highest scoring forward on a good team? Probably around 35.

But what that doesn't take into account is injuries, call ups, line juggling, deadline acquisitions, etc. For example, Guentzel wasn't even in the top 6 of scoring forwards for the Penguins in 2017 with his 33 points (in 40 games). He scored 13 goals in the playoffs though...

When you start looking at the Stanley Cup winning teams, which is the goal obviously, that sixth forward is closer to putting up a 45 point pace in the playoffs on average than 35.

As to your "hint." If Bennett was even putting up his rookie numbers, or had for the last couple years, this discussion is quite different. He didn't though, so what's the point?

Depends if you watch the games or just look at the stats

If you don’t see any difference between Bennett’s rookie season situation and the last 2 other than resulting stats, I obviously can’t help you

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Yeah, but one of the problems with the Flames last year was that Frolik (or whoever you want to call the "sixth forward") didn't produce. And why the Flames finished near the bottom of the league in goals. And why they missed the playoffs.

No, the production of 1 guy wasn’t primarily causative

[Bingo]

So I think we all agree then ....

35 points is the NHL average 6th forward. Maybe Bennett can get back to that ... maybe he can't? This year is the experiment though as last year he never got a sniff at the top six for more than a handful of games.

Either way he's adding value by generating or sustaining chances.

Last night Peters on the post game show said something to the effect of "he's generating chances to the same level as our top guys. Good to see him rewarded"

They're seeing the same things.

Right now he's a top six complimentary player on this team because he's the best option they have. That isn't a sob story when you have the top four they have though.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Depends if you watch the games or just look at the stats

If you don’t see any difference between Bennett’s rookie season situation and the last 2 other than resulting stats, I obviously can’t help you

Don't say that! I got yelled at!

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Depends if you watch the games or just look at the stats

If you don’t see any difference between Bennett’s rookie season situation and the last 2 other than resulting stats, I obviously can’t help you

Hey you disagree with my opinion, so you obviously don't watch the games!

Why are you the way you are bud?

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

They don’t assume Bennett will do it because Backlund did it. That’s you misunderstanding the comparison.

Some on this board have said Bennett will NEVER break out because his production has gone downhill. People use Backlund as an easy Flames example of why that statement is a stupid one because he’s a great example of a skill guy that took years to get it together offensively at the nil level.

You know what? Both players were first round picks with skill. Bennett in fact went top 4 and was ranked 1st by Central Scouting and Redline. His skill didn’t evaporate even though his confidence did. It’s foolish to write off players as young as Bennett is and assume they can’t or won’t improve. Plenty of posters on this board have made that mistake. There’s lots of time for Bennett to get his offensive confidence back and develop into a 2nd line player. Some people obviously had no patience for his slow development but not every player develops as fast as Tkachuk/Monahan did.

You think Carolina is gonna regret losing patience with Lindholm? Lindholm is having a breakout year at age 23/24. Sam Bennett just turned 22. Canes fans said Lindholm didn’t have a great shot. Many of you have said the same of young Bennett. Guess who’s leading the Flames in goals this year.

Still plenty of time for Bennett to break out. Glad Treliving has more patience than many of our fans.

Good post.

Those fans you speak of are the ones that ruin game threads and make this board unbearable to read on the most days. Sad, really.

And Backlund isn't the only example. There are many, many others.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Bingo

So I think we all agree then ....

35 points is the NHL average 6th forward.

Not quite. 35 is around what the sixth highest forward will score, but does not account for anything like injuries.

If a team had a very set top 6 and there was no injuries or the like, and the 6th forward got 35 points, that sixth forward would be disappointing (offensively).

Start accounting for injuries, good/bad teams, line juggling, and an above average complimentary second line forward should be a "40 point forward" in my opinion.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Not quite. 35 is around what the sixth highest forward will score, but does not account for anything like injuries.

If a team had a very set top 6 and there was no injuries or the like, and the 6th forward got 35 points, that sixth forward would be disappointing (offensively).

Start accounting for injuries, good/bad teams, line juggling, and an above average complimentary second line forward should be a "40 point forward" in my opinion.

Yikes ... splitting atoms now.

Don't think this is changing my point at all. With depth/cap issues the average 6th best forward is no longer a 60 point player. He's a bolt on. Bennett has gone from the fourth line to Calgary's bolt on which is quite a move in one quarter of a season.

He was on an 18 point pace two games ago. Now he's on a 25 point pace. It wouldn't surprise me to see him best 30 this year and carve out a role.

We haven't heard the last of line alterations though, and Frolik and Neal will be heard from again.

But at this point to see this season as anything other than a bounce back for Bennett in terms of his play and role on the team would be holding to an opinion of a player and not letting it go (my opinion only of course)