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View Poll Results: Pick the best prospect from the following
Connor Mackey 141 49.13%
Dustin Wolf 146 50.87%
Voters: 287. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 10-23-2020, 09:25 AM   #21
Monahammer
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Therein lies the problem. I personally put more weight with the better player long term, otherwise Gawdin would be top 5, he will most likely get some games next season.
That's why I think it's immaterial to vote on proximity to NHL games- who cares ultimately IMO. But voting on who we think has the most chance to blow our collective socks off in the NHL, that is exciting.
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Old 10-23-2020, 09:26 AM   #22
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Is Connor Mackey, top-four defenceman, the new Spencer Foo, top-six forward?

Memories of Foo ranking as CalgaryPuck's 8th-best 2017 prospect and 7th-best 2018 prospect. The age curve matters.

That said, I do like Mackey far more than I liked Foo (little shot of playing), and, unlike my thoughts with Foo, I think Mackey will play in the NHL in a larger capacity than season-end feel-good call-up. Another thing that tricked people with Foo was accounting for just college and not conference strength, where Mackey played in a conference (WCHA) almost twice the strength Foo did (ECAC).
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Old 10-23-2020, 09:41 AM   #23
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The age curve definitely matters and it seems weird that people would argue it doesn't. A guy like Mackey is older than Adam Fox or Cale Makar. Compare their progress at age 21 and there is literally no comparison whatsoever.

But I voted Mackey because it's not just potential that matters, but also likelihood.
I'm hopeful Mackey makes it as an NHL defenseman based on where his game is at right now, whereas Wolf is probably less likely to make it but certainly has higher upside.
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Old 10-23-2020, 09:42 AM   #24
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We did a consensus prospect ranking over at FN that looks very similar to this so far, right down to Mackey and Wolf coming tied for fourth.
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Old 10-23-2020, 09:53 AM   #25
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I would not be surprised if Mackey plays more games this season than Wolf plays in his career. The likelihood of Wolf playing pushes him down a notch or two
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Old 10-23-2020, 09:57 AM   #26
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I think Kinnvall is a better D prospect than Mackey to be honest, and I'm more interested in Poirier as well.

Mackey seems pretty vanilla.
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Old 10-23-2020, 09:59 AM   #27
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Poirier is such a wild card. If he gets it together his upside is huge.
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Old 10-23-2020, 10:03 AM   #28
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Did Mackey cause it sounds like he's got top 4 potential and is pushing for an NHL spot now.

I really like Wolf as a prospect but goalies are voodoo. Parson's and Gillies were also somewhat highly touted at one time. I dont know if I can get super excited about a goalie prospect until I see one start dominating the AHL level.
I keep hearing these "goalies are voodoo" comments but we are talking about phenomenal junior numbers. There's no smoke and mirrors here as this kid is that good and if he was two inches taller he would have likely been a 1st or 2nd round pick. His development could go sideways in the pros as with any prospect but as of today his ceiling is considerably higher than Mackey's who's also not played any pro hockey to date. Since when were undrafted college UFA's sure things while top 5 ranked NHL goaltending prospects not even worth considering in your system because of voodoo?
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Old 10-23-2020, 10:16 AM   #29
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I keep hearing these "goalies are voodoo" comments but we are talking about phenomenal junior numbers. There's no smoke and mirrors here as this kid is that good and if he was two inches taller he would have likely been a 1st or 2nd round pick. His development could go sideways in the pros as with any prospect but as of today his ceiling is considerably higher than Mackey's who's also not played any pro hockey to date. Since when were undrafted college UFA's sure things while top 5 ranked NHL goaltending prospects not even worth considering in your system because of voodoo?
Yeah his numbers are unreal and he is full credit for them.

However, and this is pretty much a common theme with guys coming out of junior when they hit the pros, their size becomes a much bigger deal because the shooting abilities of the opponents goes up exponentially.

He is tiny by todays G standards. That is going to be something that he has to overcome and will have to include a change in style to some degree. Thats a hard transition and one most of them cannot make.

There are always outliers to this, but the G graveyard is littered with smaller bodies. The most promising thing about him though is he isnt a whole lot smaller than Hart is and they played the same systems for years.

Mackey by all accounts is already close to playing NHL minutes which is a product of being older and playing both junior and 3 full years of NCAA. That's why I would have him ahead of Wolf and by quite a bit as far as prospects go.

Obviously hoping like hell both guys are studs and make this team better for years to come. One just has a much likely chance/pathway to do so over the other.
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Old 10-23-2020, 10:16 AM   #30
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The reason I voted Wolf over Mackey is because it isn't just the organization pumping his tires. There seems to be a bit of a buzz in hockey circles, it probably means the player is pretty good.
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Old 10-23-2020, 10:18 AM   #31
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Once again vote how you want. There are those that vote 100% on potential, some that vote 100% on the likelihood to see an NHL rink, others that apply a mix, some using the value in a trade. Completely up to you.
and in the later rounds, I play a game called "pick blindly and see if I hit the most popular prospect"
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Old 10-23-2020, 10:19 AM   #32
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The age thing is an odd take to me. Coming out of the college stream, a player will generally be age 23 or 24 when turning pro, four years older than going through juniors. It doesn't mean that they've been crap for four years.
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Old 10-23-2020, 10:24 AM   #33
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Missed the main vote, voted without looking and..... still tied. LOL
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Old 10-23-2020, 10:27 AM   #34
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The age thing is an odd take to me. Coming out of the college stream, a player will generally be age 23 or 24 when turning pro, four years older than going through juniors. It doesn't mean that they've been crap for four years.
For sure.

But a 24 year old on the verge isn't as valuable as a 19 or 20 year old on the verge of making an NHL team.

They have more room to develop.

Mackey is well touted, he looked good in the Saddledome bubble by all reports, and people think he'll play. But he's less likely to take huge steps in the next two or three years when compared to a recently drafted defenseman.
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Old 10-23-2020, 10:29 AM   #35
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Dead even at 71 votes each as of this post, crazy.
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Old 10-23-2020, 10:34 AM   #36
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I voted Mackey. He appeared to be the consensus top college free agent and hearing Ryan Huska discuss his ability on the radio convinced me that he is likely to be a regular NHL player soon.

I am more excited about the potential of Wolf, but I want to see him play some pro before I put him in the top echelon of prospects. This is more trying to learn a lesson from rating Tyler Parsons so highly when he dominated juniors, than anything specific to Wolf.
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Old 10-23-2020, 10:44 AM   #37
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I think Wolf is a very long shot, given "goalie" and size. While Mackey may have a lower ceiling (tough to compare D v G), he has a much higher probability of actually playing. So when I multiply upside by probability, I get a much higher number for Mackey.
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Old 10-23-2020, 11:03 AM   #38
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This vote is not only polarizing but fascinating. Without a set of criteria it is pretty subjective and no matter what everyone's vote is correct.

For me it is really about ceilings. The higher the potential the better the prospect. The ability to reach that potential has a number of fluid factors that may not even come into play with another prospect. All things considered equal between 2 prospects, I may use "when a prospect will play an NHL game" to break a tie, however the likelihood of that being the definitive factor in my ranking system is slim.

Between the 2, Wolf's potential is a starting goaltender while Mackey's potential is a second pairing defenseman. Even if I could agree that he will top out as a first pairing, I would only think that this is due to the partner he is paired with and not the other way around (second fiddle). I believe a potential starting goaltender far outweighs a potential 3rd or 4th defenseman.
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Old 10-23-2020, 11:23 AM   #39
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I definitely lean to potential more than likelihood, but I generally come to trade value as the bottom line.

What is Mackey worth if you dealt him today?
What is Fox worth if you dealt him today?

For me that takes you right into why they are running neck and neck. Mackey is a guy that you can put on your roster to start the season on a nice cost controlled contract. He'll play.

Wolf is a guy with upside but some limitations that may keep him from securing that upside, so he's not worth the return of say Carter Hart 18 months ago. But as he moves through his young career that will become more clear.
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Old 10-23-2020, 11:52 AM   #40
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Went with Mackey because he’s played in tougher leagues and isn’t a goalie. Seems like a lower floor
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