Nick Shore could be a diamond in the rough [The Athletic]

[SanFranFlamesFan]

I apologize if this has been referenced anywhere else, but I read Ryan Stimson's first piece for The Athletic on how the Sabres (or anyone really) could identify cheap, under-utilized talent.

His #1 suggested target is Nick Shore. By Stimson's own Personal Shot Contribution metric (shot assists + assists, where a shot assist is an assist that leads directly to a shot) Shore compares very similarly to Jonathan Marchessault in his age-25 season with Tampa. His rate stats are in line with 1st line/2nd liners around the NHL.

He suggests there is evidence that Shore could really thrive with more talented linemates, given that he was dragging around Trevor Lewis, Jordan Nolan and Andy Andreoff.

A highly recommended read if you're an Athletic subscriber. It left me hoping that we re-sign him, and give him a chance with more more talented linemates to see what he can do.

[oldschoolcalgary]

interesting... i remember someone posting something similar about Marschessault and how Calgary should have targeted him (this was the year before he blew up in FLA) based on the advanced stats.

i mean, it seems like a relatively inexpensive risk for calgary, esp as someone in the fold already so there's not acquisition costs...

[David Struch]

Yes, I remember hearing when he was acquired, the Flames thought he had more offense to offer.

His most productive season was back in 2014-15 in Manchester where he had 20 goals & 22 assists in 38 games.

Perhaps they try Shore out at 2nd or 3rd line centre or top 9 right winger?

[savardandjokinen]

He wasn’t too bad in his games here but never thought he got a fair chance

[TheIronMaiden]

One thing I admired during Shore's 9 game showing last season was how responsible he was in his own zone. Even if he doesn't break out to be a scoring threat, I like the addition of bottom six players who can kill penalties. This helps relieve the burden on Backlund.

[GranteedEV]

I would like to see if Shore can center Jankowski and Brouwer - something like:

Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland
Frolik-Backlund-Foo
Tkachuk-Bennett-Czarnik
Jankowski-Shore-Brouwer

[DJones]

Too me he's a no brainer resigning.

Would be very happy to have him on the 4th line to start the year.

[8sPOT]

Jankowski is a center. A big, smart, skilled center that can skate. He needs to play center. Because he’s a center.

[TheScorpion]

He'll be back, no question. He's an RFA who should cost next-to-nothing but who can produce, Brad shouldn't think twice here.

[ForeverFlameFan]

We'll probably get a good shot at how Shore is offensively if there's an injury between the top 3 centers. That, or even a RW gig in the middle 6.

[David Struch]

Here is Shore's face-off % for the past 5 seasons.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...shoreni01.html

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by SanFranFlamesFan

I apologize if this has been referenced anywhere else, but I read Ryan Stimson's first piece for The Athletic on how the Sabres (or anyone really) could identify cheap, under-utilized talent.

His #1 suggested target is Nick Shore. By Stimson's own Personal Shot Contribution metric (shot assists + assists, where a shot assist is an assist that leads directly to a shot) Shore compares very similarly to Jonathan Marchessault in his age-25 season with Tampa. His rate stats are in line with 1st line/2nd liners around the NHL.

He suggests there is evidence that Shore could really thrive with more talented linemates, given that he was dragging around Trevor Lewis, Jordan Nolan and Andy Andreoff.

A highly recommended read if you're an Athletic subscriber. It left me hoping that we re-sign him, and give him a chance with more more talented linemates to see what he can do.

This absolutely screams data mining to me. Acquiring 'shot assists' but not actual assists might be a sign of a great player who is playing with lousy line-mates, or it might just mean that the shot assists are not all that effective. Or it might mean absolutely nothing at all.

The stat requires a lot more than 'compares very similarly to Jonathan Marchessault in his age-25 season' before one should start hanging their hat on it as a useful predictor.

If you compare any finite set of data, you will find patterns that are just coincidence. For instance, if you look at, say, 5 years of stock returns, you will discover things like: investing in stocks that begin with a particular letter will result in outperformance; or if you buy on the 12th and sell on the 21st of every month you will outperform (or whatever). Unfortunately, in the next period, it will be a different letter and a different set of time periods.

Patterns showing up in data does not prove anything (unless you can go on to show that the patterns are consistent, sensible, repeatable, robust, etc).

When I watch Nick Shore, I see a serviceable player, but without a lot of offensive flair. If that changes, and he starts producing more, it will more likely be because he has done something to improve his game.

[getbak]

His required qualifying offer is $971,250. He'll probably get that. He is arbitration eligible, but I don't think he has a great case for any outrageous amount of money.

[SanFranFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

This absolutely screams data mining to me. Acquiring 'shot assists' but not actual assists might be a sign of a great player who is playing with lousy line-mates, or it might just mean that the shot assists are not all that effective. Or it might mean absolutely nothing at all.

The stat requires a lot more than 'compares very similarly to Jonathan Marchessault in his age-25 season' before one should start hanging their hat on it as a useful predictor.

No problem, Stimson has has done a lot of research into very interesting statistics. It's all backed up publicly. Here's his work on Shot Assists. He's shown that his work has been more predictive that Corsi. It is extremely labour-intensive since it requires watching all of the games over many seasons and quantifying every type of pass.

https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/01/27...ass-at-a-time/

He's really on the forefront of advanced statistical reason and unlike other people, he's actually using it to suggest novel tactics like a 1-3-1 with one player behind the net.

It's worth a read.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by SanFranFlamesFan

He's really on the forefront of advanced statistical reason and unlike other people, he's actually using it to suggest novel tactics like a 1-3-1 with one player behind the net.

I assume that's for offense 5v5, but since it could be for 5v5 defense or 5v4, I'll ask anyways: which is it?

[bigrangy]

Well if he's on to something and Shore can provide a Marchessault-esque impact then

Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland
Tkachuk-Shore-Bennett
Mangiapane-Backlund-Brouwer
Klimchuk-Jankowski-Frolik

Looks pretty good. Pick up a decent rental at the deadline and if Shore is a good 2C that team could do damage.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

Well if he's on to something and Shore can provide a Marchessault-esque impact then

Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland
Tkachuk-Shore-Bennett
Mangiapane-Backlund-Brouwer
Klimchuk-Jankowski-Frolik

Looks pretty good. Pick up a decent rental at the deadline and if Shore is a good 2C that team could do damage.

Lol why do you hate backlund

[bigrangy]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Lol why do you hate backlund

Mangiapane should be able to contribute at a middle 6 level next year based on what he showed in the AHL and throughout his junior career, and Brouwer was at least an ok 3rd liner before GG came along. Backlund is a great #3C and if both of those wingers can contribute like they should be able to then that could be a good 3rd line

Of course, this is the Flames, where nobody ever surprises with unexpected good play, so both of those wingers will probably be in the AHL by March.

[FlamesFanTrev]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

Mangiapane should be able to contribute at a middle 6 level next year based on what he showed in the AHL and throughout his junior career, and Brouwer was at least an ok 3rd liner before GG came along. Backlund is a great #3C and if both of those wingers can contribute like they should be able to then that could be a good 3rd line

Of course, this is the Flames, where nobody ever surprises with unexpected good play, so both of those wingers will probably be in the AHL by March.

I think it was more of a "why do you hate backlund so much?" as in to saddle him with Brouwer. If Backland could be your 3rd line center, that's pretty eviable depth at center in my opinion

[kyuss275]

While I think they will re-sign Shore I think he will start as 13th forward and hope for injuries. I think the dereck Ryan rumours have legs. New coach is going to want a player that knows his system and helps relate it to the players. Ryan is probably one of the cheaper options to do it. Shore is not taking janko or Backlund place.