[CP Story] Stat Hack: Is David Rittich the Flames Weakness?

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I suspect that pressure is mitigated some by recognizing that for all his flaws Mike Smith still wins more games than he loses. Rittich and Smith are purportedly close—that likely counts for a lot more for him than the numbers Smith posts.

Yeah, because our offence is ridiculous enough to cover for Smith's trash half the time.

[LWcrowfoot]

We really have to spot pointing to wins for Mike Smith. This teams scores him out of trouble and into wins.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by LWcrowfoot

We really have to spot pointing to wins for Mike Smith. This teams scores him out of trouble and into wins.

For sure ... his save percentage did have two segments that suggested starter though.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by nik-

Yeah, because our offence is ridiculous enough to cover for Smith's trash half the time.

Right. So why would Rittich lose sleep over his goaltending partner?

[nik-]

Because they're still more likely to lose under Smith than him and they don't want to lose.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by nik-

Because they're still more likely to lose under Smith than him and they don't want to lose.

I suspect the results don't change much with a realistic goaltender swap for Mike Smith.

To be clear, this is not to vindicate Mike Smith who has been terrible. This is to counter the ridiculous suggestion that Smith's performance is putting any strain on David Rittich's psychological well being.

[GioforPM]

Even if you assume Smith is the worst goalie in the league, any backup you could get is so marginally better that you can't assume it results in any more wins than they already have, or would have in the future.

Let's say you replace Smith with Ward. Does a .006 difference move that needle?

[LWcrowfoot]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I suspect the results don't change much with a realistic goaltender swap for Mike Smith.

To be clear, this is not to vindicate Mike Smith who has been terrible. This is to counter the ridiculous suggestion that Smith's performance is putting any strain on David Rittich's psychological well being.

It's an assumption but a fair one. No where near ridiculous. When you have to carry the load for a co-worker/teammate/that one partner in a project who sucks, it's straining. Doubt it's any different for an athlete.

Speaking generally it must be nice for a starting goaltender to know his backup is going to carry the load if he falters, if he goes through a rough patch of game. Speaking specifically about the Flames, Rittich doesn't have that. Now if that affects him or not we don't know but that idea shouldn't be dismissed or treated with such derision.

[LWcrowfoot]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Let's say you replace Smith with Ward. Does a .006 difference move that needle?

Let's say you replace Smith with Ryan Miller, someone actually rumoured about last week, someone Treliving apparently asked about. Does that 2.71GAA and 0.922SP move the needle?

[icecube]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I suspect the results don't change much with a realistic goaltender swap for Mike Smith.

To be clear, this is not to vindicate Mike Smith who has been terrible. This is to counter the ridiculous suggestion that Smith's performance is putting any strain on David Rittich's psychological well being.

It's stressful and frustrating when a coworker continues to drop the ball and make everyone else's job harder. Which is why the other marines ended up beating private pyle with socks filled with bars of soap. Who's to say that Rittich isn't affected by Smith's suckage?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by LWcrowfoot

It's an assumption but a fair one. No where near ridiculous. When you have to carry the load for a co-worker/teammate/that one partner in a project who sucks, it's straining. Doubt it's any different for an athlete.

How so is Rittich "carrying the load" for Mike Smith? The schedule the coaches have set seems unaffected by the performance of both goalies.

Speaking generally it must be nice for a starting goaltender to know his backup is going to carry the load if he falters, if he goes through a rough patch of game. Speaking specifically about the Flames, Rittich doesn't have that. Now if that affects him or not we don't know but that idea shouldn't be dismissed or treated with such derision.

He doesn't?

Between 23 Nov–9 Dec Rittich was 0-2-1 in four starts and was pulled once. In that two week period Mike Smith rattled off 6 wins posting a 1.59 GAA and a 0.939 SP, and he pitched a shutout. That looks exactly like the sort of support you assume Rittich is pining for.

[dino7c]

Mike Smith is also playing against bottom feeders 90% of the time

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by LWcrowfoot

Let's say you replace Smith with Ryan Miller, someone actually rumoured about last week, someone Treliving apparently asked about. Does that 2.71GAA and 0.922SP move the needle?

He might except I'm not trading for with a sprained MCL who hasn't played since he got hurt mid December. His recovery was supposed to be 6 weeks and it's way beyond that now.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Mike Smith is also playing against bottom feeders 90% of the time

Yes. It's what backup goalies do.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by LWcrowfoot

Let's say you replace Smith with Ryan Miller, someone actually rumoured about last week, someone Treliving apparently asked about. Does that 2.71GAA and 0.922SP move the needle?

I know it's not that simple but man, if Smith had a .922 behind this team that would be a 2.17 GAA.

[nik-]

Mike "Doesn't Cause Psychological Trauma" Smith.

[GioforPM]

I have a pretty hard time with the armchair psychoanalysis that we have on the forum, whether it's Rittich, or whoever. Like how there's assumptions that players must hate having X on their team because he's not scoring. I kind of assume they like a team mate if they like their personality and they don't if the guy's a dick.

I seriously doubt Rittich gives a second thought to how Mike Smith will let him down if he gets yanked. I think he just plays his own game.

[Bingo]

This has become a very odd conversation.

[MJK]

I believe that Rittich can get the job done and IMO you don't have to look past his W/L record for that:

20-4-5 is pretty amazing and even if you slot the best goalie in the world in his place it's unlikely the record get much better than that. It's hard to fault him in any of the shootout losses and we don't have to worry about that in the playoffs.

Goalies will have ups and downs but one thing for certain is that W/L record. I was actually surprised it was a good as it is when I took the time to check it out.

I don't think he's a weakness at all.

[DeluxeMoustache]

^ when you factor in that two of the regulations losses are 1-0 and 2-0 losses, you have a goalie that did pretty much everything he reasonably could be expected to do.

To me, sv% is a team stat firstly. More specifically, the ceiling or expected sv% are team stats. Then a goalie can help improve it a bit with some huge saves, or tank it with bad goals

I’m not worried about his mind set. The two against SJ were
- weird spin around with release obscured by Andersson’s skate, plus an unsubstantiated report that someone turned down the gravity in the building
- a bad turnover that he rightly played and wrongly put in to Burns’s shin pads
Neither are reflective of his ongoing ability to stop the puck in normal situations that he faces regularly. Sv% that game was low due to two flukes. That was a full moon game, not business as usual.

Vancouver had two basically unstoppable goals, and the one that got through him .. well, he for sure wants it back, but that was a heavy shot. They showed other goals he scored and beat other goalies with a similar release. Goals happen. He bounced back and shut the door in the 3rd and OT and looked really good. Sv% that game was lower than you would like owing to half a period of shot suppression, and some wicked grade A shots.

So me, I’m not concerned.