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Old 08-28-2019, 02:21 PM   #1
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Default Rube's 2019 NFL Gambling Odyssey (and NFL Preview Thread)

Hey gang, after last year's losing season and a general trend I'm noticing with my life in which I'm not quite watching as much football as I used to, I'm trying to take on a little bit more of an analytics approach to gambling this year. As such, I've built a pretty extensive database that I'm going to be relying on this year to make my bets. However, due to this being the first year that I'm employing this strategy, I'm not going to share exactly what I'm doing until I know whether it's successful. Being the man of science I am (LOL), I'm also going to be making bets based on both my old and new methods and tracking them to determine which ones are more successful throughout the year.

One of the methods I've been using for the last couple of years to predict overall W-L records is using the Pythagorean Expected Wins totals from previous seasons and then looking for value plays where I feel Vegas has set the O/U too far on one side. This has been fairly successful for me and I've been tinkering with it a bit more this offseason to try and get more accurate predictions.

With that said, I thought I'd use this thread to do a bit of an NFL preview series that's based entirely on data and not on my own personal opinions and biases.

First, a bit of a primer:

The main stats I've elected to include for analysis are aforementioned PEW and the PEW differential (PEW - Actual Wins). I use the "Adjusted Pythagorean Wins" model developed by football outsiders. Here's a link that provides a little more background on how model works.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/st...thagorean-wins

PEW is incredibly consistent in being able to predict which teams are candidates for positive and negative regression in the upcoming season. In 2018, teams with a negative PEW differential of -0.5 or greater lost an average of 2.5 more games than the previous year. Teams with a positive differential of 0.5 or greater won an average of 2 more games the following season. Of course there are exceptions and outliers but the model is generally solid

The other stats I look at when predicting records for the upcoming season are fumble recovery rates, adjusted man games lost (injuries), winning percentage in one-score games, and net penalty yards vs. league average. Why? Because most of these factors are a result of "luck" and fluctuate from year to year, so if a team is above or below the league average in any of these areas, there's a possibility for regression. Fumble recovery rates and winning percentage in one-score games, for instance, average out as 50/50 propositions and are generally pretty good indicators of how lucky a team was in the previous season.

So now that we have that out of the way, I'll go ahead and post the previews.

Last edited by rubecube; 08-28-2019 at 03:17 PM.
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Old 08-28-2019, 02:22 PM   #2
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AFC East

New England Patriots
Rube’s 2019 projection: 11-5

Vegas O/U Win Total: 11 (O -141, U +118)
2018 record – 11-5 (Super Bowl Champions)
2018 PEW: 10.8 (-0.2 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 45.7%
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 78.6 (+0.4 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 94 (+94.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 5, .600 winning percentage (+10% vs. NFL Average)

While it would be nice for non-Patriots fans to believe this team is heading for a decline, there really isn’t much to hang your hate on in terms of negative regression. The Pats were a very honest 11-5. While they benefited from penalties, they had negative fumble luck and were league average in the injury department. Their record in one-score games was higher than the league average but the sample size wasn’t big enough to indicate any kind of luck in that area either. Barring massive injury problems, this team should be a lock to win 11 games again. That said, unless you’re a Pats fan, I’d stay away from any kind of action on their win total because there’s absolutely zero value there.

Miami Dolphins
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 5-11

Vegas O/U Win Total: 4.5 (O -130, U +118)
2018 record – 7-9
2018 PEW: 5.1 (-1.9 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 41.2% (-8.8% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 95.3 (+17.1 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -122 (-121.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 8, .875 winning percentage (+37.5% vs. NFL Average)

It’s certainly looking like a long season in Miami. This is one of those examples where the eye test matches the data because the Dolphins on paper look like a bottom tier team. The positives, if you’re a Miami, fan is that they were “unlucky” in terms of FRR, AGL, and NPY. However, their .875 winning percentage in one-score games will absolutely regress this season. Moving that number to the NFL average would have given the Dolphins a 4-12 record last season. Accounting for that regression and splitting it with the positive regression they should see in other areas puts them at the 5-11 mark for me, but you could easily convince me of 4-12. Like the Pats, there’s not much value in taking action on the Vegas numbers.

Buffalo Bills
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 6-10

Vegas O/U Win Total: 6.5 (O -195, U +162)
2018 record – 6-10
2018 PEW: 5 (-1 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 47.2% (-2.8% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 33.8 (-44.4 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -16 (-15.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 6, .500 winning percentage (= NFL Average)

There’s just nothing in the data to suggest that the Bills were any better than their 2018 record says they were. They were lucky in the injury department and pretty much par in every other department. It’s possible that Josh Allen takes a massive leap forward in year 2 like we see with many young QBs, but usually when that happens there are underlying numbers from the previous season to suggest as much and we just don’t see that here. I think taking the under on this one is a massive value play.

NY Jets
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 8-8

Vegas O/U Win Total: 7 (O -177, U +147)
2018 record – 4-12
2018 PEW: 5.3 (+1.3 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 45.5% (-4.5% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 74.6 (-3.6 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -131 (-130.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 8, .250 winning percentage (= NFL Average)

The Jets are a great example of why I’m doing a more data-driven approach to gambling this year. If you had asked me to project their record without looking at the data, I would have probably gone with 6-10. However, upon looking at their stats, I can see that they're due for positive regression in almost every category. There’s not enough value for me to take the over, indicating that Vegas also sees them as closer to an 8-win team than a 7-win team.

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Old 08-28-2019, 02:40 PM   #3
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I've got the Browns to win the division at 20:1. Will finally pay out this year (hopefully).
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Old 08-28-2019, 03:03 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Weitz View Post
I've got the Browns to win the division at 20:1. Will finally pay out this year (hopefully).
About that...

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 11-5

Vegas O/U Win Total: 8.5 (O -108, U -110)
2018 record – 10-6
2018 PEW: 10.8 (+0.8 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 48.9% (-1.1% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 29.7 (-48.5 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 77 (+77.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 7, .429 winning percentage (-7.1% vs. NFL Average)

I’m pretty bullish on the Ravens this year. In fact, they’re currently 35-1 to win the Super Bowl, which might be the best value play out there at the moment. I can totally understand people being concerned about Lamar, and if the Ravens run into injury trouble (an area they were lucky in last year), the wheels could easily come off. However, this is a team whose underlying numbers support their record from a year ago and indicate improvement to come for this year. The over is an excellent play here, as is betting on them to win the AFC North. Basically take as much action as you can get on the Ravens right now.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 9-7

Vegas O/U Win Total: 9 (O -150, U +126)
2018 record – 9-6-1
2018 PEW: 9.7 (+0.7 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 51.4% (+1.4% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 40.4 (-37.8 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 139 (+139.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 11, .545 winning percentage (+5.5% vs. NFL Average)

While PEW shows the Steelers were a tad unlucky last year, they were fortunate in almost every other category (FRR being insignificant here). Again, these projections are based solely on the data we already have, which means I can’t comment on the Brown and Bell departures and what they mean to the team. I think 9-7 is a fair mark for this team but they could easily be 8-8 or 10-6 depending on if they see negative regression or not. This is another line I have no interest taking action on.

Cleveland Browns
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 8-8

Vegas O/U Win Total: 9 (O +109, U -130)
2018 record – 7-8-1
2018 PEW: 7.1 (+0.1 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 56.5% (+6.5% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 51.1 (-27.1 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 96 (+96.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 9, .556 winning percentage (+5.6% vs. NFL Average)

The offseason champs! The Browns are rolling into this season with all sorts of hype, but the underlying metrics suggest that maybe we should pump the breaks a bit. I understand that Hue Jackson can be blamed for many of the early season woes, but the numbers are the numbers, and this was firmly a 7-win team who was maybe a tad lucky to be a 7-win team. I can definitely envision scenarios where they sneak into a wild-card spot but they’re going to need a lot of things to break their way again to get there. I definitely don’t see much value in this line, but if you’re buying the hype then the over isn’t a bad play by any means.

Cincinnati Bengals
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 7-9

Vegas O/U Win Total: 6 (O +124, U -148)
2018 record – 6-10
2018 PEW: 5.9 (-0.1 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 52% (+2% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 104.9 (+26.7 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -12 (-11.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 7, .286 winning percentage (-21.4% vs. NFL Average)

There really isn’t much here to discuss. They were slightly unlucky with injuries and very unlucky in one-score games. I think the new coach is an upgrade on Lewis but the numbers can’t account for that. You could easily sway me on either 7-9 or 6-10. Either way, I’m not putting any money on this line.

Last edited by rubecube; 08-28-2019 at 03:46 PM.
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Old 08-28-2019, 03:25 PM   #5
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Boo you!
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Old 08-28-2019, 03:51 PM   #6
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AFC South

Houston Texans

Rube’s 2019 Projection: 10-6

Vegas O/U Win Total: 8.5 (O -110, U -108)
2018 record – 11-5
2018 PEW: 10.3 (-0.7 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 57.8% (+7.8% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 89.6 (+11.4 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 158 (+158.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 11, .545 winning percentage (+4.5% vs. NFL Average)

I’d be a bit more confident in this projection if not for the Andrew Luck retirement. This is a team that was lucky in almost every single category except injuries, so a repeat 11-win season doesn’t seem likely. That said, I don’t see any realistic way they finish with less than 9 wins considering who else is in the division. The over isn’t great value, but it’s close to even money and it’s a likely winner.

Indianapolis Colts
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 8-8

Vegas O/U Win Total: 7.5 (O -109, U -109)
2018 record – 10-6
2018 PEW: 10.3 (+0.3 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 46.5% (-3.5% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 116.5 (+38.3 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 162 (+162.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 8, .500 winning percentage (= to NFL Average)

Based on the numbers, the Colts should haven been the favourites to win the AFC South this year and they were…until Andrew Luck retired. This is still a talented team on both sides of the ball, with good coaching, and a capable quarterback, so I still think the over is a good play here but you’ll probably be sweating it for most of the year.

Tennessee Titans
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 8-8

Vegas O/U Win Total: 8 (O -104, U -114)
2018 record – 9-7
2018 PEW: 8.2 (-0.8 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 56.3% (+6.3% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 68.7 (-9.5 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 257 (+257.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 7, .571 winning percentage (+7.1% vs NFL Average)
The Titans defied the odds last year by being one of the few teams to not regress negatively based on the previous year. The reason? The football gods decided to hand them another largely fortunate seasons. The odds on that happening for a third consecutive season aren’t great. It’s rare to see a team get lucky in every single one of the categories I’m tracking but the Titans did just that. 8-8 seems reasonable but if they regress negatively beyond the average in some of these areas, they could easily go 6-10.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 7-9

Vegas O/U Win Total: 8 (O -113, U -105)
2018 record – 5-11
2018 PEW: 5.7 (+0.7 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 39% (-11% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 104.6 (+26.4 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -377 (-257.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 8, .250 winning percentage (-25% vs NFL Average)

The Jags weren’t just a little unlucky last year, they were one of the unluckiest teams in the NFL. I’m trying to be a bit conservative with these projections which is why I went with 7-9 here, but I think the Jags are a darkhorse in the AFC and betting on them to win the AFC South is one of those sneaky bets that could pay well (odds are down on that right now due to the Luck injury, so I can’t attest to the value).

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Old 08-28-2019, 04:32 PM   #7
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Rube you bet every game every week or just a selection of them? I can't recall from previous years.


My general week consists of:
- 4 team parlay
- probably 4-6 individual bets (moneyline, O/U, Etc)
- $25 weekly fanduel league (dabble in some other contests if im confidant in my picks)
- Dumb bet or 2 if I am watching with some friends.
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Old 08-28-2019, 04:47 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Weitz View Post
Rube you bet every game every week or just a selection of them? I can't recall from previous years.


My general week consists of:
- 4 team parlay
- probably 4-6 individual bets (moneyline, O/U, Etc)
- $25 weekly fanduel league (dabble in some other contests if im confidant in my picks)
- Dumb bet or 2 if I am watching with some friends.

I generally try to limit myself to about 4-6 individual bets. I've stopped doing much DFS. Usually I'll put in a $5 12-team parlay just for ####s and giggles. I'll usually also bet the primetime games so that I have some kind of rooting interest in them if the Eagles aren't playing and I don't have fantasy guys involved.
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Old 08-28-2019, 05:41 PM   #9
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AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 10-6

Vegas O/U Win Total: 10.5 (O -113, U -105)
2018 record – 12-4
2018 PEW: 11 (-1 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 53.9% (+3.9% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 60.8 (-17.4 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -272 (-271.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 9, .556 winning percentage (+5.6% vs NFL Average)

The Chiefs are definite candidates for some regression, thought I do question by how much. They were lucky in most categories but not by a wide margin. Still, with the average rate of regression for teams with negative differentials being around 2.6, 10 wins seems like a safe bet but I’m not confident enough to take the under on this one because there’s really no value in doing so.

Los Angeles Chargers
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 9-7

Vegas O/U Win Total: 9.5 (O -152, U +127)
2018 record – 12-4
2018 PEW: 10.6 (-1.4 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 46.3% (-3.7% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 100 (+21.8 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -139 (-138.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 7, .857 winning percentage (+35.7% vs NFL Average)

-1.4 is a notable differential because it usually foreshadows a pretty big drop the following season. Usually when I see anything over +1 or -1 I can very quickly find several categories that paint a narrative on ways in which the team was fortunate. The Chargers, however, were unlucky in most categories except for one-score games. If you drop their one-score game percentage to NFL average, you get a 9.5-win team, which matches what Vegas has them pegged for. However, I put a bit more stock into the differential than I do the other categories, so I’d be fairly comfortable taking the under at the value it’s at.

Denver Broncos
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 8-8

Vegas O/U Win Total: 7 (O -114, U-104)
2018 record: 6-10
2018 PEW: 7.4 (+1.4 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 56.1% (+6.1% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 76.2 (-2 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 21 (+21.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 10, .400 winning percentage (-10% vs NFL Average)

Remember what I just said about the Chargers? Basically, apply the reverse of all of that to the Broncos. The Broncos were a team who were average to slightly lucky in most categories, but their PEW differential was +1.4, which usually means their headed for a few extra wins this year. I don’t think there’s a tonne of value in the over, but it is a likely winner if you bet it.

Oakland Raiders
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 4-12

Vegas O/U Win Total: 6 (O -104, U -114)
2018 record: 4-12
2018 PEW: 3.7 (-0.3 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 38.2% (-11.8% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 81.7 (+3.5 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 10 (+10.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 6, .500 winning percentage (= NFL Average)

Honestly, I wish I could provide some good news about the Raiders, but the numbers just don’t back it up. They were very unlucky in the fumbles department but just about average everywhere else. In other words, they were exactly what their final record said they were. Much like what I said regarding the over with the Broncos, there’s not a tonne of value in taking the under here but you’ll probably win your bet.

Last edited by rubecube; 08-28-2019 at 05:43 PM.
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Old 08-28-2019, 06:18 PM   #10
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NFC East

Dallas Cowboys
Rubeís 2019 Projection: 7-9

Vegas O/U Win Total: 9 (O +103, U -122)
2018 record: 10-6
2018 PEW: 8.4 (-1.6 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 56.5% (+6.5% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 78.5 (+0.3 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -205 (-204.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 12, .750 winning percentage (+25% vs NFL Average)

FADE! FADE! FADE! I love it when the data backs up my biases. This team was a total fraud last year. They finished 9th in the league despite being ranked 21st in DVOA. They won one-score games at a totally unsustainable clip (even with Amari Cooper) and their PEW differential is in that lose 2-3 more games than the previous season range. They very well may buck the trend and put in a more complete performance this year because there definitely is talent there and they have a pretty easy schedule for the first 3 weeks, but donít be surprised if weíre speculating about Jason Garretís job by the middle of November. There isnít really any value to be had in betting the under unfortunately but Iíd be shocked if they win more than 8 games.

Philadelphia Eagles
Rubeís 2019 Projection: 9-7

Vegas O/U Win Total: 9.5 (O -188, +156)
2018 record: 9-7
2018 PEW: 8.5 (-1 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 45.3% (+6.5% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 118.5 (+40.3 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 143 (+143.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 12, .500 winning percentage (= NFL Average)

The Cleveland Browns of the NFC. Lots of flash offseason acquisitions and potential, but poor underlying numbers. You can certainly say the Eagles were unlucky in the fumble and injury department (2nd highest AGL in the NFL last year) but that doesnít address the fact that the team was kind of ass even when they were healthy. Pederson and Grohís offensive game plans and play-calling were tremendously uninspired for the first half of the year and the defense couldnít get off the field on third and longs. From my biased, personal perspective, I think theyíre a better team than they were last year but I also think that taking the under here isnít a completely unreasonable bet based on the numbers.

Washington Professional Football Team
Rubeís 2019 Projection: 6-10

Vegas O/U Win Total: 6.5 (O +165, U -199)
2018 record: 7-9
2018 PEW: 5.7 (-1.3 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 59.5 (+9.5% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 99.3 (+21.1 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -217 (-216.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 6, .667 winning percentage (+16.7% vs NFL Average)
This was a team who had some rough injury luck last year but who also just wasnít very good and have a very mediocre coaching staff. Itís tough to see anything in the numbers that suggest a turnaround this season, and theyíre probably closer to 5-11 than 7-9, so Iím splitting the difference with 6-10. There is zero value to be found here.

NY Giants
Rubeís 2019 Projection: 7-9

Vegas O/U Win Total: 6 (O -103, U -115)
2018 record: 5-11
2018 PEW: 6.9 (+1.9 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 40 (-10% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 53.3 (-24.9 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -32 (-31.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 12, .333 winning percentage (-27.3% vs NFL Average)

So the Giants might not have been as bad as we thought they were. Donít get me wrong, they were bad, and Iím still convinced their front office has no clue what itís doing, but this was a team that was unlucky to not be 8-8 and I donít think itís out of the question for them this year. Iím going 7-9 to be on the safe side but I would feel comfortable betting the over on this line.
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Old 08-28-2019, 06:45 PM   #11
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NFC North

Chicago Bears
Rubeís 2019 Projection: 11-5

Vegas O/U Win Total: 9.5 (O +132, U -158)
2018 record: 12-4
2018 PEW: 11.6 (-0.4 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 50% (= NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 36.6 (-41.6 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 226 (+226.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 10, .600 winning percentage (+10% vs NFL Average)

Iíve seen quite a few people talking up regression for the Bears this season but Iím just not seeing it in the data. I donít think theyíll win 12 games again because they were marginally lucky in the penalty, differential, and injury departments, but weíre not looking at a massive collapse here by any means. If Trubisky sorts his #### out, they might very well be the team to beat in the NFC. The over is a great play here, IMO.

Minnesota Vikings
Rubeís 2019 Projection: 9-7

Vegas O/U Win Total: 9 (O +100, U -119)
2018 record: 8-7-1
2018 PEW: 8.5 (+0.5 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 33.3% (-17% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 73.9 (-4.3 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 55 (+55.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 5, .600 winning percentage (+10% vs NFL Average)

Again, I think the over is a decent play here. I personally think the Vikings go 10-6 but the data firmly supports 9-7, so at worst youíll push.

Green Bay Packers
Rubeís 2019 Projection: 8-8

Vegas O/U Win Total: 9.5 (O +113, U -119)
2018 record: 6-9-1
2018 PEW: 7.4 (+1.4 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 47.5% (-2.5% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 92.7 (+14.5 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -145 (-144.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 9, .333 winning percentage (-16.7% vs NFL Average)

I have the Packers improving by anywhere from 3-5 games, but the model conservatively supports 2, so thatís why I went with 8-8. I definitely donít think taking the over is a bad bet here.

Detroit Lions
Rubeís 2019 Projection: 7-9

Vegas O/U Win Total: 6.5 (O -143, U +120)
2018 record: 6-10
2018 PEW: 7 (+1 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 51.2% (+1.2% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 76.8 (-1.4 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 34 (+34.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 6, .333 winning percentage (-16.7% vs NFL Average)

This team looks like a firm 7-9. They werenít particularly unlucky in any category except for one-score games (small sample size) and PEW differential. Thereís not really much else to say about them so it will likely come down to coaching and injuries this year.
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Old 08-28-2019, 08:54 PM   #12
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NFC South

New Orleans Saints
Rubeís 2019 Projection: 10-6

Vegas O/U Win Total: 10.5 (O +109, U -130)
2018 record: 13-3
2018 PEW: 11.5 (-1.5 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 55.6% (+5.6% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 50.7 (-27.5 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -125 (-124.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 7, .714 winning percentage (+21.4% vs NFL Average)

I think the Saints are a very good team, but I also think the NFC South is going to be more competitive this year and Iím not surprised to see their numbers predicting a dip. They could also very easily win 11-13 games again, so I wouldnít fault anyone for taking the over at its current price. For me, itís a stay away.

Atlanta Falcons
Rubeís 2019 Projection: 8-8

Vegas O/U Win Total: 9 (O +116, U -138)
2018 record: 7-9
2018 PEW: 7.8 (+0.8 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 37.8% (-12.2% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 77.9 (-0.3 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -102 (+102.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 8, .500 winning percentage (= NFL Average)

You could easily talk me into 9-7 for this team but any higher is pushing it as they were unlucky but not tremendously so. I tend to think there isnít a value play to be had here.

Carolina Panthers
Rubeís 2019 Projection: 9-7

Vegas O/U Win Total: 7.5 (O -173, U +144)
2018 record: 7-9
2018 PEW: 7.8 (+0.8 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 57.1% (+7.1 vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 103.8 (+25.6 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -28.5 (-12.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 10, .300 winning percentage (-20% vs NFL Average)

Why am I higher on the Panthers than the Falcons? Because the Panthers had more injury problems and less luck in one-score games last year. I think theyíre also a sneaky good pick to win the division if thereís good value there. I wouldnít touch this line though.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rubeís 2019 Projection: 7-9

Vegas O/U Win Total: 6.5 (O -114, U -104)
2018 record: 5-11
2018 PEW: 6.4 (+1.4 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 53.7% (+3.7 vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 128 (+49.8 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 181 (+181.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 11, .364winning percentage (-13.6% vs NFL Average)

The league leaders in AGL from last season also went 3-8 in one score games. Iíd be shocked if they won less than 7 games and wouldnít be surprised at all if they went 8-8 or 9-7 with a little luck on their side. I canít say that the over is a great value but it looks like a lock if the wheels donít completely fall off.
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Old 08-28-2019, 10:06 PM   #13
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NFC West

LA Rams
Rubeís projection: 10-6

Vegas O/U Win Total: 10.5 (O +130, U -155)
2018 Record: 13-3
2018 PEW: 11.2 (-1.8 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 65.8% (+15.8% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 39.6 (-38.6 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -26 (-25.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 7, .857 winning percentage (+35.7% vs NFL Average)

Everything I said about the Cowboys earlier goes double for the Rams. This isnít to say the Rams arenít a good team, but none of these numbers are sustainable, and as they fall back to Earth, so will the Ramsí record. They could still very well go 11-5 but 9-7 or 10-6 seems far more likely.

Seattle Seahawks
Rubeís projection: 10-6

Vegas O/U Win Total: 8.5 (O -109, U -109)
2018 Record: 10-6
2018 PEW: 10.1 (+0.1 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 63.6% (+13.6% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 65.7 (-12.5 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 22 (+22.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 11, .455 winning percentage (-4.5% vs NFL Average)

The Seahawks are currently +315 to win the NFC West and I think thatís a more valuable play than the over, but Iíd also take the over as well. Yes, they were a bit lucky in terms of FRR and AGL, but they were also slightly unlucky in one-score games which sort of evens it out. I think theyíre a solid 10-win team that could be an 11-win team with a bit of luck.

San Francisco 49ers
Rubeís projection: 8-8

Vegas O/U Win Total: 8 (O -121, U +102)
2018 Record: 4-12
2018 PEW: 5.6 (+1.6 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 46.2% (-3.8% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 105.5 (+27.3 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 29 (+29.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 9, .333 winning percentage (-16.7% vs NFL Average)

Hereís a team that got absolutely railroaded by the football gods last year. While you could make the case for 7-9 and a value play on the under, I think positive regression in injuries and one-score game victories should pull them to 8-8.

Arizona Cardinals
Rubeís projection: 3-13

Vegas O/U Win Total: 5(O -133, U +112)
2018 Record: 3-13
2018 PEW: 2.8 (-0.2 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 51.2% (+1.2% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 95.6 (+17.4 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 4 (+4.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 6, .333 winning percentage (-16.7% vs NFL Average)

I just donít see anything in the numbers to suggest any kind of improvement this season. I do think they will be a better team but it wonít show up in their record. They may win 4 games instead of 3 but I feel pretty comfortable taking the under here and itís good value.

Last edited by rubecube; 08-28-2019 at 10:10 PM.
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Old 08-28-2019, 10:29 PM   #14
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My head hurts.
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Old 08-29-2019, 12:16 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Weitz View Post
Rube you bet every game every week or just a selection of them? I can't recall from previous years.


My general week consists of:
- 4 team parlay
- probably 4-6 individual bets (moneyline, O/U, Etc)
- $25 weekly fanduel league (dabble in some other contests if im confidant in my picks)
- Dumb bet or 2 if I am watching with some friends.
If you play DK we have a $10 weekly league going that Luongo usually plays in and could always use more people.

Goes for anyone else here as well.
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Old 08-29-2019, 04:09 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hockey View Post
If you play DK we have a $10 weekly league going that Luongo usually plays in and could always use more people.



Goes for anyone else here as well.
I'd probably be interested in that. I don't like playing in the big pools but I like playing with "friends."
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Old 08-29-2019, 05:33 PM   #17
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Quote:
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If you play DK we have a $10 weekly league going that Luongo usually plays in and could always use more people.

Goes for anyone else here as well.
Iíd be interested I think. Fire me a PM.
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Old 08-29-2019, 08:45 PM   #18
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Some where in your projections I think you have projected wins as 4 higher than losses in the combined records. So somewhere you might have two teams who will come up a win short of what you have. Maybe there is another round to dial that in?


Green Bay under doesn't seem a terrible bet as they would have to improve by 4 wins to beat the 9.5 line. The value is not great but it would look like a probable outcome.
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Old 08-29-2019, 08:48 PM   #19
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Quote:
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Some where in your projections I think you have projected wins as 4 higher than losses in the combined records. So somewhere you might have two teams who will come up a win short of what you have. Maybe there is another round to dial that in?
Sorry, I'm not following.
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Old 08-29-2019, 08:52 PM   #20
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If you add up all the records you have 258 total wins and 254 losses as opposed to 256 and 256.
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