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View Poll Results: Best guess for Tkachuk's contract result
8 @ 7M 10 1.74%
8 @ 8M 37 6.45%
8 @ 9M 18 3.14%
8 @ 10M 8 1.39%
7 @ 7M 20 3.48%
7 @ 8M 61 10.63%
7 @ 9M 17 2.96%
7 @ 10M 3 0.52%
6 @ 6M 4 0.70%
6 @ 7M 42 7.32%
6 @ 8M 119 20.73%
6 @ 9M 24 4.18%
5 @ 6M 3 0.52%
5 @ 7M 55 9.58%
5 @ 8M 65 11.32%
5 @ 9M 10 1.74%
4 @ 5M 1 0.17%
4 @ 6M 3 0.52%
4 @ 7M 17 2.96%
3 @ 4M 2 0.35%
3 @ 5M 2 0.35%
3 @ 6M 34 5.92%
2 @ 4M 1 0.17%
2 @ 5M 15 2.61%
1 @ 4M 1 0.17%
1 @ 5M 2 0.35%
Voters: 574. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 09-11-2019, 10:13 PM   #1041
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Hopefully we find out in the near future that teams not having cap space isn’t helping RFAs make money as well.

Treliving at some point can look him in the eye and say “So we have (whatever number, say ~6.75) million and not a penny more, it’s all we can do. Do you want to sit out and hope we find more money, knowing there is the risk of missing the year if we can’t?”
I hope he does say that. But Tkachuk’s side should be professional negotiators too and will come back with “we’re not accepting less than market because you can’t manage your cap. Clear the room you need to pay us what we’re worth. Are you willing to lose one of your best players for a year over that? Waste a year where you could be contending?”

This negotiation should come down to what he is worth which granted is not an easy thing to sort out. Clearly a 1 year deal should have the lowest AAV, but what would that be? The market is not very clear IMO other than Aho set the ceiling for a 5 year deal.
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Old 09-11-2019, 10:27 PM   #1042
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^ sure, and Tkachuk wanting more money than Treliving has doesn’t mean more money is available. It means somebody has to go.

Tre can ask Tkachuk who he should get rid of. It’s just business, kid. To which teammate do you want to say goodbye?

“Look, we can pay you, say, 6 million this year and then next year we will have space to get to a number you like better. But if you need that number this year, one of your teammates becomes your casualty”. Let Tkachuk understand, and own, his part in the big picture. If his demands have consequences on the team, let him know.

Then Tre has to make something happen. And what if he can’t?

And the consequence, if Tkachuk wants to stick to it, can be one full year at zero dollars, one year of his career down the toilet, plus trying to recover that money in future years. It’s a lose-lose.

One year at 6 million? Tkachuk may hate himself for taking it but it would be an outcome that is not a lose-lose

It’s just a negotiation.

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Old 09-11-2019, 10:28 PM   #1043
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Said it before I think, but with the Werenski deal and the Meier deal showing some precedent, i could see a

3.33
6.66
10

3 year deal. Sets him up for a huge QO, fits great in the cap and gets everyone to camp on time.

Either that or a

4.5
9

2 year deal.
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Old 09-11-2019, 10:37 PM   #1044
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These RFAs need to understand that the only team beholden to the dumbassery of Kyle Dubas is the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Sebastian Aho as a 22 year old #1C got 5/$42.5. On an offersheet no less.

Tkachuk isn't a #1C. He's very good and he's going to get paid, the money he's actually going to get only goes down from here. There is no pressure on the team to sign him - this is still a playoff team without Matthew Tkachuk. He's not missing a year of service time when he could have $56M guaranteed or whatever.

This is a negotiation. If I'm betting on a side that blinks first, it won't be the one with Brad Treliving on it. He got Johnny done, he'll get this done.
Yeah. Wait for the these rfas to come out of their 'dumbass dubas' fever and be a bit more malleable on their position. Maybe all these gms holding out can help readjust the standard that the stinkin' leafs put out of whack.

I do think it's insane that players that still haven't filled out their potential can command 10 mil now. I think that's bonkers and too much of a jump to happen merely two to three years after the same caliber of players were commanding 6-7.

Enjoy your popcorn kids.
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Old 09-11-2019, 10:54 PM   #1045
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Pressure start to build when the on ice stuff starts and you know and see likely on media (social and otherwise) that your team buddies are getting back in the groove while you’re busy at some gym or practicing with some random players, and you want to be back at it.

Flames have survived an Iginla hold out or two, Regher as well back when I thought, and it will hurt Tkachuk more than the Flames for him to be on the sidelines for camp and beyond.
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Old 09-11-2019, 11:11 PM   #1046
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Be a team player and settle at 7.5 x 6.
Don't be the guy that holds out into the season to try to completely nuke the Gio/Gaudreau cap. Gaudreau took quite the haircut to not miss games when everyone and their dog knows his value is higher than he took (even then).
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Old 09-12-2019, 07:12 AM   #1047
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So Chucky is just waiting for the fitness testing to be done right?
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Old 09-12-2019, 08:36 AM   #1048
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^ sure, and Tkachuk wanting more money than Treliving has doesn’t mean more money is available. It means somebody has to go.

Tre can ask Tkachuk who he should get rid of. It’s just business, kid. To which teammate do you want to say goodbye?

“Look, we can pay you, say, 6 million this year and then next year we will have space to get to a number you like better. But if you need that number this year, one of your teammates becomes your casualty”.
Let Tkachuk understand, and own, his part in the big picture. If his demands have consequences on the team, let him know.

Then Tre has to make something happen. And what if he can’t?

And the consequence, if Tkachuk wants to stick to it, can be one full year at zero dollars, one year of his career down the toilet, plus trying to recover that money in future years. It’s a lose-lose.

One year at 6 million? Tkachuk may hate himself for taking it but it would be an outcome that is not a lose-lose

It’s just a negotiation.
Problem is the GM is negotiating with the agent. And the agent doesn't give a crap about anyone who isn't his client. Agent doesn't care about winning or Cups, just the here and now salary. The guilt trip tactic wouldn't work.

However, you're on the right track that the GM has a clear and concise constraint that everyone knows about and it's public knowledge: he only has x amount of cap to work with. In other words, the pure dollars this year is non-negotiable.

Tkachuk's position on the other hand is negotiable. There's no league wide rule that says a 77 pt RFA coming off his ELC gets paid X dollars.

Its a tough and ugly negotiation and that's why players get agents so they don't hear directly from their bosses about their deficiencies.
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Old 09-12-2019, 08:44 AM   #1049
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Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache View Post
^ sure, and Tkachuk wanting more money than Treliving has doesn’t mean more money is available. It means somebody has to go.

Tre can ask Tkachuk who he should get rid of. It’s just business, kid. To which teammate do you want to say goodbye?

“Look, we can pay you, say, 6 million this year and then next year we will have space to get to a number you like better. But if you need that number this year, one of your teammates becomes your casualty”. Let Tkachuk understand, and own, his part in the big picture. If his demands have consequences on the team, let him know.

Then Tre has to make something happen. And what if he can’t?

And the consequence, if Tkachuk wants to stick to it, can be one full year at zero dollars, one year of his career down the toilet, plus trying to recover that money in future years. It’s a lose-lose.

One year at 6 million? Tkachuk may hate himself for taking it but it would be an outcome that is not a lose-lose

It’s just a negotiation.
If I’m Tkachuk’s agent, I’m not listening to any talk of the Flames cap situation being part of the negotiation. It is all about establishing market value for the appropriate term. If my house is worth $1 million, and you tell me you can only afford $900K, then I start looking for a buyer with enough money in his pockets.
Yeah if I really like you there might be a small concession, but this is Tkachuk’s career.

I feel fairly certain the difficulty here is agreeing on market value and term, not the Flames cap situation.
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Old 09-12-2019, 08:48 AM   #1050
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Isn't the pressure in the other direction? The longer Tkachuk sits out (once the season starts), the lower his cap hit will have to be in order to still be signed and play this season. Otherwise, it'll get to the point where he has no choice but to sit out the whole season, in which case he'll lose out on the $7M+ he would have earned from playing that season - so unless he thinks that for sure he'll be able to get that $7M+ back and more in a contract starting the following year, the pressure will be on him to give a little. Skipping a year in the NHL also probably won't help from a player development perspective and could impact his long term earning potential as well, if it causes his skills to stagnate.
It's pressure both ways, but that's the change. The player used to hold all the cards until December 1st but now both have trouble fitting in what they want to get done if the season starts and time starts to tick.

A $8.5M cap hit for Tkachuk becomes $9.1M if he misses two weeks of the regular season. He misses a month and it's basically $10M
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Old 09-12-2019, 08:48 AM   #1051
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Let’s also say the Flames cap constraint was hard and fast, and the ONLY option is to offer say a 1 year $6.75 million deal. I couldn’t think of a better situation for an offer sheet.
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Old 09-12-2019, 08:50 AM   #1052
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So Chucky is just waiting for the fitness testing to be done right?

Veteran move
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Old 09-12-2019, 08:50 AM   #1053
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Let’s also say the Flames cap constraint was hard and fast, and the ONLY option is to offer say a 1 year $6.75 million deal. I couldn’t think of a better situation for an offer sheet.
How likely is that this late though?

The only teams that have a) the cap space and b) the situation (chance to win) are teams with their own RFA problems.

Even a team like Colorado with cap space is saving said cap space because of McKinnon and others as per Sakic.
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Old 09-12-2019, 08:54 AM   #1054
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If I’m Tkachuk’s agent, I’m not listening to any talk of the Flames cap situation being part of the negotiation. It is all about establishing market value for the appropriate term. If my house is worth $1 million, and you tell me you can only afford $900K, then I start looking for a buyer with enough money in his pockets.
Yeah if I really like you there might be a small concession, but this is Tkachuk’s career.

I feel fairly certain the difficulty here is agreeing on market value and term, not the Flames cap situation.
How can the cap situation not be a factor? Fact is that if Treliving signs Tkachuk for more than the Flames have , he has to make moves. His other contractual commitments don’t magically vanish.

And find another buyer? That’s the whole point of the R in RFA. There is no easy shopping around for another buyer. (Offer sheet scenario aside, and how many of those do we really see?)

It is a fact that the Flames have a cap constraint, and have other commitments.

If you are Tkachuk’s agent, you stuff your fingers in your ears and say “the cap is your problem, just pay me $x”, Treliving can simply and honestly say “I can’t”

Tkachuk deciding he really wants X dollars doesn’t make X dollars available.
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Old 09-12-2019, 08:57 AM   #1055
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Tkaxhuk gives your team a chance to win

There is no holdout situation with him where the flames come out winning

Ultimately I think that is the hammer in the leverage discussion
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Old 09-12-2019, 09:01 AM   #1056
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3 year deal with a high QO like Meier has is too risky.

If we set him up for a $10M QO all he has to do is accept that once qualified and walk to UFA in 4 years. Basically it would be a 3x6.75 then a 1x10 then UFA.

I think the Flames need to try and get a 6+ year deal here or go 2 years.
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Old 09-12-2019, 09:05 AM   #1057
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Problem is the GM is negotiating with the agent. And the agent doesn't give a crap about anyone who isn't his client. Agent doesn't care about winning or Cups, just the here and now salary. The guilt trip tactic wouldn't work.

However, you're on the right track that the GM has a clear and concise constraint that everyone knows about and it's public knowledge: he only has x amount of cap to work with. In other words, the pure dollars this year is non-negotiable.

Tkachuk's position on the other hand is negotiable. There's no league wide rule that says a 77 pt RFA coming off his ELC gets paid X dollars.

Its a tough and ugly negotiation and that's why players get agents so they don't hear directly from their bosses about their deficiencies.

True. To a point. But Tkachuk and his agent still communicate.

Johnny, I believe, at some point told his agent to make something happen. And he got a deal done in time for the season start.

Tkachuk’s agent must ask Tkachuk what hill he wants to die on, if he is willing to miss some time, or even a whole season. He also should be sharing the Flames negotiating position.

I have negotiated and have had people negotiating on my behalf. The negotiator needs to articulate to their client the consequence of sticking with a position, and the consequences of exploring other options. Not just stubbornly sticking to a position.
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Old 09-12-2019, 09:06 AM   #1058
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If the Tkachuk camp wants 5 years, I say just give it to him. That will give the Flames the 7 best years (3 on ELC and 4 from the second contract) of his career and you trade him in the 8th year for assets. Term is risky for the team too, players can always regress, just take the best 7 years and move on.

And do it before the season starts so you maximize that first year of the second contract. If you let it drag on into the season, the first year of the contract is essentially a loss (see Nylander), and you get one less year than you bargained for.
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Old 09-12-2019, 09:08 AM   #1059
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How can the cap situation not be a factor? Fact is that if Treliving signs Tkachuk for more than the Flames have , he has to make moves. His other contractual commitments don’t magically vanish.

And find another buyer? That’s the whole point of the R in RFA. There is no easy shopping around for another buyer. (Offer sheet scenario aside, and how many of those do we really see?)

It is a fact that the Flames have a cap constraint, and have other commitments.

If you are Tkachuk’s agent, you stuff your fingers in your ears and say “the cap is your problem, just pay me $x”, Treliving can simply and honestly say “I can’t”

Tkachuk deciding he really wants X dollars doesn’t make X dollars available.
It’s not plugging your ears. It’s agreeing to parameters of a negotiation. If the Flames a knowledge they are unable to pay Tkachuk his market value, they run a high risk of losing him.
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Old 09-12-2019, 09:09 AM   #1060
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Tkaxhuk gives your team a chance to win

There is no holdout situation with him where the flames come out winning

Ultimately I think that is the hammer in the leverage discussion

And there is no situation where Tkachuk holds out where Tkachuk wins.

Say he has a 20 year career. Say goodbye to 5% of that. Maybe you recover the dollars if you are lucky in outer years, but you never get that year back.

A year that you are on an expected contender. Lots of players spend lots of years on teams that are not contenders.

It’s not a hammer because a holdout is lose-lose
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