Score Effects & Impacts on the Flames Play (Warning: Lots of Stats)
I was curious tonight about how "Score Efffects" have impacted the Flames play this year. The team has seemingly struggled at extending leads, and coming from behind when trailing, and wanted to see what the underlying numbers show in those scenarios.
When looking at the teams play at 5v5 split by different score scenarios:
Tied
TOI: 953:17
3.15 GF/60 (2nd)
2.33 GA/60 (14th)
57.5% GF% (6th)
58.1% xGF% (3rd)
Shooting %: 8.36% (15th)
Save %: .906 (29th)
Up 1
TOI: 466:20
2.7 GF/60 (15th)
3.47 GA/60 (27th)
43.75 GF% (25th)
52.3% xGF% (9th)
Shooting %: 8.05% (23rd)
Save %: .879 (31st)
Down 1
TOI: 434:40
2.88 GF/60 (10th)
2.33 GA/60 (14th)
55.3% GF% (13th)
52.2% xGF% (16th)
Shooting %: 7.50% (23rd)
Save %: .908 (18th)
Within 1 Total
TOI: 1857
2.97 GF/60 (3rd)
2.62 GA/60 (21st)
53.2% GF/60 (11th)
55.2% xGF/60 (2nd)
Shooting %: 8.1% (19th)
Save Percentage: .899 (30th)
If we extend the Leading and Trailing scenarios to any lead or deficit:
Leading
TOI: 890:39
2.69 GF/60 (11th)
3.23 GA/60 (26th)
45.5% GF% (24th)
51.4% xGF% (9th)
Shooting %: 8.91% (17th)
Save %: .885 (31st)
Trailing
TOI: 695:54
2.5 GF/60 (21st)
1.72 GA/60 (4th)
59.2% GF% (6th)
52.95 xGF% (19th)
Shooting %: 6.71% (27th)
Save %: .932 (3rd)
The team is actually pretty strong in tied/close games, like pretty close to elite at 5v5 in that scenario - but even in that scenario the goaltending lets them down a fair bit ranking in the bottom 4. The most surprising stat to me was that we are 3rd in Goals For per 60 when the game is within 1...I would not have guessed that.
The other stand out is that this team just struggles across the board when trailing. They don’t drive play, the scoring drops off, and that is where the shooting % really drops off when other teams start to collapse a bit more. The team just doesn’t have the horses to break through when the other team can go into a defensive shell.
And this is really a killer because when you have a .908 save percentage when down by 1, that means you get into those 2+ goal scenarios down more often than probably deserved.
And I could not look at this without checking the goalie splits too.
Markstrom:
Tied: .885 Sv Pct
Leading By 1: .882
Leading By 2+: .904
Trailing by 1: .887
Trailing by 2+: .977
Within 1: .885
Vladar:
Tied: .934 Sv Pct
Leading By 1: .875
Leading by 2+: .867
Trailing By 1: .962
Trailing By 2+: .956
Within 1: .920
Vladar has been a machine when the game is tied, or when the Flames are down by 1, but struggles at holding the lead. Which checks out feels like he keeps them in games, but they still struggle to hold leads, and has let in some weak ones when we have a lead. Overall though he keeps them in games.
Markstrom only shows up when we are either up or down by 2, the only time his save percentage is above .900. Really inflating his stats a bit once we are down by 2, and then he starts to show up with a .977 save percentage.
The .885 save percentage when tied, and the .887 save percentage when down by 1 is just abysmal for Markstrom though. This team really just can’t count on a save with him in net during those key moments, and they find themselves trailing too often early on - as was the case with the Buffalo game on Saturday.
In terms of the skaters and coaches though…they need to figure out how to break down the opposition when we do get in those scenarios where we are trailing by 2+ goals, or really just trailing in general.
They really seemed to open it up offensively against the Sabres in the second period on Saturday, with the dmen more active than I can remember them being all season and the forwards springing for more stretch passes than I can remember as well - but really that game was the exception so far this season.
Overall though there are some promising stats here - especially the goal scoring when games are close. They need to figure out how to hold a lead, and that's on the players and the goalies, but IMO their play in games when the game is close is really positive as that is the majority of the game (73% of the TOI) and if they start to lean on Vladar more down the stretch this team could take off.
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