The Democratic Presidential Nomination 2020

[2Stonedbirds]

Originally Posted by peter12

Well, yes... Sanders' campaign threatens the viability of the DNC. Sanders doesn't seem to get that there would be some pretty obvious pushback.

As many have said, and as I agree, he probably shouldn't be running as a Democrat.

We've heard lamentation of the lack of a third party in the US. Why doesnt Bernie hang out his own shingle if he is indeed as popular as some would lead you to belive?
Would cover the political spectrum bases, would it not?

[Senator Clay Davis]

The "take out Warren and Bernie wins" narrative could easily shift to "take out early voting and Biden probably sweeps yesterday". He absolutely dominated Bernie on voting day.

[Ark2]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

Maybe he shouldn't have called her a liar on a national debate stage then..

She is a liar, so it was a fair comment.

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by 2Stonedbirds

We've heard lamentation of the lack of a third party in the US. Why doesnt Bernie hang out his own shingle if he is indeed as popular as some would lead you to belive?
Would cover the political spectrum bases, would it not?

I mean, he was an Independent for 34 years.

[2Stonedbirds]

And the "independent" is flying under the DNC banner.
I guess no one should be surprised a pinko sympathizer needs the machinations of someone else's doing to get by.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by peter12

Great work to the Biden campaign. Kind of sucks when the outsider candidate can't figure out why they are the outsider until it is too late. Oh well, Sanders will scupper the party's chances by keeping them at each other's throats until the last minute

All this talk about the media trashing Bernie, but they've been pretty quiet that Bernie is way down from where he was in 2016, and last night showed that he is not picking up any of the votes from the moderates as they drop out.

He stayed until the end last time because he thought he had a case that he was getting more votes and pledged delegates than Hillary, but it's not going to be nearly as close in a couple weeks unless there is a big momentum shifting event.

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by 2Stonedbirds

And the "independent" is flying under the DNC banner.
I guess no one should be surprised a pinko sympathizer needs the machinations of someone else's doing to get by.

Yeah that tends to happen when you've had a two-party system in place for over a century.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Do you think progressive voters didn't turn out in those districts?

As has been pointed out, the Democrats need high voter turnout to win. How does Biden get the 18-40 progressive crowd to turn out?

I guess he has to figure that out if he wins the nomination. But getting the support of people who consistently vote is a sounder basis for a strategy than relying on people who don't. A 10 per cent reduction in turnout of university educated women in the suburbs hurts a lot more than a 10 per cent reduction in 18-34 year old progressives.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

Yeah that tends to happen when you've had a two-party system in place for over a century.

weirdly that seems to be how every single democracy in the world over all of history seems to do things, perhaps its representative of the voters, that ultimately everyone tends to one of two camps in any competition.

I mean you could be a fan of Alberta hockey, equally support the Oilers and Flames, and yet no one is, we are programmed to pick a team.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

Maybe he shouldn't have called her a liar on a national debate stage then..

She is a liar, and went full heel with a woman can't be president nonsense.

[2Stonedbirds]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

Yeah that tends to happen when you've had a two-party system in place for over a century.

Guess you're SOL then.

[Matata]

At least watching Biden lose to Trump should be hilarious.

[HockeyIlliterate]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I love the narrative that Sanders couldn't get the voter turnout he needed once the moderates coalesced behind one candidate, which completely ignores the fact that Warren played spoiler yesterday by not dropping out.

If Bernie grabbed even a 1/3 of Warren's votes, we're likely having a much different conversation this morning.

Yes, but the whole delegate-math and State wins need to be looked at differently as well.

To wit:

So Biden won Alabama, Arkansas, and Oklahoma.

None of those states are going to vote for the democratic Presidential nominee regardless of who that might be.

Biden also won Massachusetts and Minnesota.

Those states are likely going to vote for the democratic Presidential nominee regardless of who that might be.

Biden also won North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.

Maybe two of those states will vote for the democratic Presidential nominee, but it depends on who that might be.

Bernie, on the other hand, won California, Colorado, Utah, and Vermont.

California and Vermont will vote for the democratic Presidential nominee regardless of who that might be, and Colorado will likely too, but Utah isn't going to going to vote for the democratic Presidential nominee regardless of who that might be.

Taking all of that in, I think that people should really disregard the wins in those States where the Democrats don't have a chance in November (most of the south), and instead focus on who won in the likely swing states (North Carolina, Virginia), and on the margin of victory in the safe states.

Looking at it that way, one can see where the Democratic base really is and what they want and what the moderates/swing voters want.

To my eye, it isn't Biden and his policies except for in a very few districts.

Which means that if Biden is the nominee (and I'm guessing at this point he likely will be), he might win the Presidency simply due to the "I hate Trump" factor, but the base isn't going to be happy and their discontent might make his presidency not go so well.

[peter12]

I think Biden has a shot, actually.

[2Stonedbirds]

Originally Posted by peter12

I think Biden has a shot, actually.

If the base coalesces then absolutely he does.
I have my doubts they do that, however.

[Matata]

Originally Posted by peter12

I think Biden has a shot, actually.

Hillary, but somehow worse, will be the dagger to the heart that Trump has no defense against.

[peter12]

Honestly, if Psychnet or rubecube are indicative of your average young Dem swing voter, they are screwed. I am more optimistic that the young people aren't just age identity politics enthusiasts, but maybe I am wrong.

[icecube]

Originally Posted by peter12

Honestly, if Psychnet or rubecube are indicative of your average young Dem swing voter, they are screwed. I am more optimistic that the young people aren't just age identity politics enthusiasts, but maybe I am wrong.

And since you are probably indicative of your average liberal centrist it's no wonder why we are currently so screwed.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by peter12

Honestly, if Psychnet or rubecube are indicative of your average young Dem swing voter, they are screwed. I am more optimistic that the young people aren't just age identity politics enthusiasts, but maybe I am wrong.

Yes, the belief that people shouldn't go bankrupt paying their medicals is a cornerstone of age identity politics.

[octothorp]

I think Biden's going to have a harder road than most of the potential nominees would against Trump, largely because he shares a lot of Trump's flaws to a lesser degree, so it's going to be harder to contrast him against Trump, especially with the US media's tendency to 'both sides' everything. Trump's horrible history with women? Well Biden has these weird touchy moments as well. Trump's declining mental state? Biden's prone to verbal gaffs too. Trump's incredible family grifting? Biden's got some baggage there. Trump's embrace of the swamp after promising to drain it? Biden's waist-deep in that swamp. Trump's poor race record? Ditto. etc.
In reality Biden is better than Trump in all of these regards, but it's going to be hard for Biden to effectively hit Trump on any of those points.