[Rumour] Friedman: Flames maybe one of the teams interested in Duchene?

[FBI]

Wasn't one of the goals Brouwer scored the one that the Canucks scored in their own empty net?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by FBI

Wasn't one of the goals Brouwer scored the one that the Canucks scored in their own empty net?

Yes. What does that matter?

[FBI]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Yes. What does that matter?

Just made me realize his stats were even worse than I thought.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by saillias

here's my third theory.

The contract was terrible the moment it was signed. He was never worth it. What you're seeing, is Brouwer. Not mailing it in, or even a down season. Just the player he is. He could "rebound" in the same way Lance Bouma might get lucky and score 10 goals in a season again, but it doesn't make him a good player.

So, let me get this straight.

Troy Brouwer has played nine full seasons in the NHL. In that time since 2008 he has scored between 10 goals/25 points per season and 25 goals/43 points per season. His career average is 16 goals and 36 points per year. In five of his ten NHL seasons he was over the 16 goal/36 point threshold. Last year before his injury he was on pace to score 18 goals and 38 points, which looks pretty close to his career average.

But, you would rather have us accept that his 13 goals and 25 points are a more accurate representation of "just the player he is." His worst statistical season in his entire NHL career is a good extrapolation of what Brouwer is going forward.

I am sorry, but that is patently ridiculous. To compare his "one off" bad season to Bouma's "one off" good season and suggest that both are the same player is absurd.

[saillias]

Yup, it's an expected decline. A 31 year old 2nd/3rd line tweener player should never be assumed to replicate his production from his 20s.

Hence my analysis that the contract was terrible the moment it was signed.

If you're thinking he's going to be better next year, well good on you but I'd advise against putting money on it.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by saillias

Yup, it's an expected decline. A 31 year old 2nd/3rd line tweener player should never be assumed to replicate his production from his 20s.

Hence my analysis that the contract was terrible the moment it was signed.

If you're thinking he's going to be better next year, well good on you but I'd advise against putting money on it.

In each of his three seasons prior to joining the Flames Troy Brouwer was a 20 goal/40 point player.

At the age of 30 Brouwer was a 20 goal/40 point player.

Before he was injured in late Dec last year Brouwer was a 20 goal/40 point player.

A full 40% reduction in one year is not by any measure a reasonable expectation for decline in the output of a 31-year-old player. But since you seem to think that this is pretty typical I am interested to see from you an accounting of 30-year-old consistent 40-point players who suddenly experienced such a precipitous decline from which he never recovered.

I cannot help but think that you are being intentionally obtuse in the light of an abundance of statistical evidence. Quite to the contrary, I think it is foolish to bet that if healthy Brouwer will not be better next year.

[Mister Yamoto]

Simply put, right from day one Troy Brouwer wasn't a good fit on the Flames roster.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Mister Yamoto

Simply put, right from day one Troy Brouwer wasn't a good fit on the Flames roster.

Between Day One of the Season and Day Eighty-Three of the NHL schedule Troy Brouwer was top-five among Flames forwards in scoring. I would say he looked like a pretty good fit while he was healthy.

[Gaudfather]

Originally Posted by Mister Yamoto

Simply put, right from day one Troy Brouwer wasn't a good fit on the Flames roster.

Everyone agrees that last year was a write-off for Brouwer for various reasons. That is why this upcoming season is crucial. Clearly Flames management are no dummies, they had done their due diligence and thought Brouwer had plenty left in the tank given the contract they signed him too.

It is still possible last year was an aberration. But if Brouwer doesn't up his contribution this season ( both in points and physicality, puck possession etc.) then it becomes clearer that Tre made a big mistake on this signing. But Flames fans owe Brouwer one more kick at the can before coming to this conclusion. That's how I look at it anyway.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by saillias

...it's an expected decline. A 31 year old 2nd/3rd line tweener player should never be assumed to replicate his production from his 20s...

I am interested to know from those who are convinced that Brouwer is presently no better than a bottom-six plug: What is your explanation for his offensive production in the first ten weeks of the season last year?

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I am interested to know from those who are convinced that Brouwer is presently no better than a bottom-six plug: What is your explanation for his offensive production in the first ten weeks of the season last year?

I think you are placing a lot of weight on his hand injury causing his poor play. I believe it's always dangerous to take a players best stretch of games and assume that's his norm, and that everything else is an aberration.

I do recognize that Brouwer had been relatively consistent in his career so I've got a wait and see attitude on how he plays this year. He might have hit a wall or he might rebound especially if an injury was the problem.

But honestly if the first 10 weeks is the best he can be, it's still not great. But it is OK I suppose.

[frodo_t_baggins]

For me, it has little to do with offensive production. Even if it were 40 points is pretty low bar for a 4.5 million player. The guy was paid to be a leader. He got an A slapped on his chest over other players. And he just didn't live up to that. No big hits and a defensive liability. Then when Johnny had his hand almost chopped off, he responded by saying it's part of the game. Lastly, his average production came when the flames were awful. When the games got important and the flames started rolling he completely disappeared. That's why, I can't stand him and will never be convinced by people saying to start the season he came as advertised.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I think you are placing a lot of weight on his hand injury causing his poor play. I believe it's always dangerous to take a players best stretch of games and assume that's his norm, and that everything else is an aberration...

When a player's play over a small sample of games aligns with his most recent level of production over a long period of time, and then when another similar small sample of games is well outside of his career average which looks more like the expectation and the aberration?

Maybe I do put too much weight on Brouwer's injury. But by the same token a good number of posters are clearly not setting enough weight on the impact his injury had on his production. Would you agree with that?

But honestly if the first 10 weeks is the best he can be, it's still not great. But it is OK I suppose.

You guess? Come on. A 20 goal/40-point forward is exactly what Treliving expected to acquire when he signed Troy Brouwer. It is better than okay.

[robaur]

Why is a thread about Duchene now become a pissing contest over Troy ####ing Brouwer ??

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by robaur

Why is a thread about Duchene now become a pissing contest over Troy ####ing Brouwer ??

It's obvious, isn't it? It is because of Mark Jankowski.

[MissTeeks]

The offseason, when no thread can stay on topic.

[Gaudfather]

To get this thread back on topic.....Sportsnet has an article up on analyzing five possible landing spots for Duchene and Calgary didn't make the list.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/a...-matt-duchene/

[midniteowl]

Originally Posted by Gaudfather

To get this thread back on topic.....Sportsnet has an article up on analyzing five possible landing spots for Duchene and Calgary didn't make the list.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/a...-matt-duchene/

Thank God!!!

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

When a player's play over a small sample of games aligns with his most recent level of production over a long period of time, and then when another similar small sample of games is well outside of his career average which looks more like the expectation and the aberration?

Maybe I do put too much weight on Brouwer's injury. But by the same token a good number of posters are clearly not setting enough weight on the impact his injury had on his production. Would you agree with that?


You guess? Come on. A 20 goal/40-point forward is exactly what Treliving expected to acquire when he signed Troy Brouwer. It is better than okay.

The injury is definitely relevant, it's just hard to say how much.

His career average is 19 goals, 38 points over 82 games. But maybe more telling, his playoff averages are half that. And at his age, it's not unreasonable to assume his best is behind him. So I guess better than ok but he didn't seem to contribute in many ways outside of his production.

So yeah we should hope for better this year but I'd rather have the cap space.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

...So yeah we should hope for better this year but I'd rather have the cap space.

Sure, but I think it is important to point out that this is not a fool's hope by any stretch. The way a lot of posters characterise Brouwer is completely disingenuous, and it is grating when it occurs ad nauseam.