Electric vehicle war, is gas soon to be toast?

[IGGYRULES]

Originally Posted by zamler

How much?

Look at Plug power, Fuel Cell, Ballard power market cap explosion over the last year. Market is forward looking and sees the opportunity. Look at national investment strategies from Canada, Spain, USA, Australia. This is just the beginning.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielco...-now-underway/

[IGGYRULES]

Originally Posted by zamler

How much?

From the article linked above.

"According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), there are over $90 billion worth of upstream, midstream, and downstream hydrogen projects in the global pipeline (gray, green, and blue). The Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA)#is tracking#dozens of green hydrogen electrolyzer projects around the world with a theoretical combined capacity of 50 GW worth $75 billion (though only a fraction of these will come to fruition). Renewable hydrogen in Europe could require 180 billion - 470 billion euros of investment by 2050."

"Government support is likely to be a part of the equation to bridge the demand gap. In European markets alone, BNEF predicts that the green hydrogen industry will require upwards of $150 billion in subsidies by 2030 and $11 trillion of investment by 2050 for the fuel to meet 24% of the continent’s energy demand by 2050."

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by Superflyer

G.M. Will Sell Only Zero-Emission Vehicles by 2035

I expect Ford to make a similar announcement, they are probably ahead of GM for EV's now.

[Wormius]

Assuming car production all heads to EV, and the remainder of oil production is used elsewhere - plastics, heavy machinery, aviation, etc. how big of a dent would that make in global oil consumption? Would pipelines still be worth pursuing or are cars and trucks pretty minor in the whole scheme of things?

[photon]

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/...use-of-oil.php

"Gasoline is the most consumed petroleum product in the United States. In 2019, consumption of finished motor gasoline averaged about 9.31 million b/d (391 million gallons per day), which was equal to about 45% of total U.S. petroleum consumption."

So about half?

[CrunchBite]

Man I want to do an electric vehicle, the Rivian R1S looks awesome to me and would work perfect for 95% of my driving.

But it starts at $95k and optioned the way I'd like it would be $110k.

For $110k I can buy a brand new loaded Bronco, fuel and maintenance for probably 15+years.

Maybe not an apples to apples comparison but it feels like electric has a long ways to go get competitive on price. At least in the SUV sphere?

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Mazda is using a rotary engine as a compact range extender, which makes a lot of sense.

Rotaries always make a lot of sense until someone actually has to own one

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

Rotaries always make a lot of sense until someone actually has to own one

I think the use case might make it more reliable though. They'd only run at a set RPM where the power generation is optimized. No turbos or anything, just a steady speed, and they run smooth. That's what I had read awhile ago, anyway.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by CrunchBite

Man I want to do an electric vehicle, the Rivian R1S looks awesome to me and would work perfect for 95% of my driving.

But it starts at $95k and optioned the way I'd like it would be $110k.

For $110k I can buy a brand new loaded Bronco, fuel and maintenance for probably 15+years.

Maybe not an apples to apples comparison but it feels like electric has a long ways to go get competitive on price. At least in the SUV sphere?

Getting the cost of the EV down will be one of the bigger challenges that most manufacturers will face the next 3-5 years, but from everything we've seen it is only a matter of time.

I don't think a $25k EV is required, but a $50k EV with 300-400km range will probably equal mass adoption. Not quite sure we are there yet.

[zamler]

The Model 3 has 350 miles of range and is $40,000. Unless you mean Canadian pesos.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by Azure

Getting the cost of the EV down will be one of the bigger challenges that most manufacturers will face the next 3-5 years, but from everything we've seen it is only a matter of time.

I don't think a $25k EV is required, but a $50k EV with 300-400km range will probably equal mass adoption. Not quite sure we are there yet.

That's the holy grail, though. Corolla is still the best-selling car worldwide and has been forever basically.

Not disputing your point or acting like you didn't know that. Just adding to what you're saying.

[zamler]

Battery costs have dropped almost 90% in 10 years. Even if that continues at half the rate a 25K BEV will easily be achieve by 2030. My prediction is in 3-4 years Tesla will have a 25K car for sale.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by zamler

The Model 3 has 350 miles of range and is $40,000. Unless you mean Canadian pesos.

I do mean in Canadian dollars.

The price is definitely getting close though.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Sliver

That's the holy grail, though. Corolla is still the best-selling car worldwide and has been forever basically.

Not disputing your point or acting like you didn't know that. Just adding to what you're saying.

I know it is the only grail, and it will obviously make a big difference, but we are seeing Tesla sell more cars than they can make with current pricing.

Even if they could offer a $25k EV right now, it doesn't necessarily mean they can get it into the the hands of the millions of people that will buy it.

So they are better off selling cars for twice that price until they get the manufacturing figured out for the $25k EV.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Swift

This hasn't been mentioned in this thread (unless there's another EV thread?) but a 5 minute charge battery has been developed - https://www.theguardian.com/environm...charging-times

Additionally electric cars are now past the tipping point in Norway and are expected to pass that point globally in the next 2-4 years - https://www.theguardian.com/environm...-mass-adoption

I'm no expert on any of this, but I enjoy the discussion on it. I was in Oslo in 2019 and it was astounding to see so many EV cars on the road (their licence plates show as EV-XXXXXX) We played a little game to see how many we could spot on the busy road out of the city centre and counted about 30-45 in 2 mins.

I saw more Teslas in a week in Norway a couple of years ago than I’d seen in my life until then (only slight exaggeration). The infrastructure in general there is amazing. Must be nice to be a petro-state

[zamler]

Originally Posted by Azure

I do mean in Canadian dollars.

The price is definitely getting close though.

Long range Model 3 is $65,000 in Canada with the options I like. $47,000 U.S. for the same car. So not a mainstream car yet.

[TorqueDog]

At the base price, it's priced like a BMW 3-series PHEV +$10k, which I think makes it a tougher sell when you consider the Model 3 isn't what I'd call a luxury car interior.

Model 3 Standard Range Plus (RWD): $52,900 CAD
BMW 330e (RWD): $44,950

Model 3 Long Range (AWD Dual Motor): $64,900 CAD
BMW 330e xDrive (AWD): $54,000

Load up the 330e xDrive and it's $66,550. The Model 3 LR loaded up -- except for the $10,600 Full Self-Driving feature -- is $67,590, and at that price point, the BMW is far and away a better equipped car. (I chose blue for both paint colors, of which BMW was marginally more expensive.)

Are there reasons to pick a Model 3 over a 330e? Absolutely, and I'm sure if you're a Tesla fan then you can justify it easily. I just don't know if those reasons are enough for mainstream buyers to pick it over its competitors.

[Azure]

Well one reason is because it is an EV, no?

I mean if you want an EV, you have to be willing to pay a little more right now.

But other than that you have a good point, and it is one reason why we're still a couple years away from better adoption.

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by Azure

Well one reason is because it is an EV, no?

I mean if you want an EV, you have to be willing to pay a little more right now.

But other than that you have a good point, and it is one reason why we're still a couple years away from better adoption.

Well yeah, it's pretty much the reason if you are looking for a pure EV.

But I don't think mainstream buyers are necessarily motivated by that. If you're segment shopping and curious about dipping your toe into the hybrid/EV compact luxury segment, BMW and Tesla are pretty much the players you get to choose from (perhaps Lincoln's MKZ Hybrid too), and dollar for dollar the value out of the BMW is (I can't believe I'm saying this) really strong when compared with the Model 3.

[Street Pharmacist]

I think it's really hard to communicate to the buyer all the benefits of buying EV's, including total cost of ownership.

For example:

-Even in Alberta an EV is probably 1/4 (or better??) cheaper per KM for electricity vs gasoline. at 20,000 km per year that a grand or two depending on the vehicle
-Maintenance is waaaay cheaper as there's no Oil changes or any moving parts that need to be serviced. Add that up over the time of ownership and it'll be significant
-Average daily commute in Canada is under 20km. That means you wake up every morning with a "full tank". You only have to ever think about "filling up" if you are going on a longer drive or don't live in a place with access to an electrical outlet
-Electric Vehicles are more powerful, faster, durable, and fun. You simply cannot compare the torque and smooth operation of an electric vehicle vs a gas powered one.
-Health benefits are only now being studied to any extent, but there seems to be very large payoffs. The only caveat is that the emissions breathed from exhaust is usually other cars, not your own necessarily.


If an electric car is, say 5-6k more than an ICE car with similar features, it becomes cheaper anyways. That point is very soon, and up front cost will be cheaper. It's just a matter of when