Electric vehicle war, is gas soon to be toast?

[sketchyt]

Originally Posted by Jiggy

For people with electric vehicle's, how much does your electricity bill go up by charging your vehicle at home?

Tough to compare right now because we've been at home so much. However, from my recollection during normal driving my energy usage easily doubled. This is about $20-$40 per month for me.

[Azure]

Looks like the new battery that Tesla has developed has 5x more energy density, 16% more range, and 6x the power.

The market isn't reacting well to battery day, probably because of the subtle changes to a lot of processes instead of a MASSIVE big development.

Either way, they are now way, WAY ahead of everyone else and are back to accelerating the pace towards making ICE way more costly compared to EVs.

There are a lot of other things that they have improved on or developed that are great to see as well.

[Hemi-Cuda]

I just wish other car companies would take Tesla up on their offer of licensing their battery tech. I'd love an electric car with one of their batteries, but I don't like the Tesla interiors and the build quality still seems a little suspect

[Fuzz]

The numbers Tesla presented are a little deceiving(if you don't know what they were actually saying), because it is 5x the energy density and 6x the power per cell, but the cells got much larger so there are fewer per car. So it's not that a Tesla battery pack increased by those numbers, just the individual cell.

The 16% range increase is really the one you can compare directly, though even that includes the increased efficiencies in the other aspects of the car.

I'd be interested to know how the actual power density changed in W/kg.

Definitely some good progress there, but it doesn't seem like it is anything other manufacturers couldn't do as well. I think the dry cathode is probably a huge money saver for them, and will probably be adopted by others.

[Fuzz]

Other interesting developments recently are Ford planning 5 electric vehicles to be built in Canada, and GM promising 20 electric vehicles by 2023.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/ford...n-deal-2020-09

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a3...-hummer-specs/

I'm still not convinced Tesla does much that the majors won't catch up on, and do better in the next decade.

[zamler]

The legacy brands are falling further behind they better start pumping those legs soon.

[Fuzz]

I'm honestly not sure how true that is. I suspect, since they all seem to be on the same path, they looked at it 5 years ago and decided then was not the time, but were working all the same behind the scenes. A lot has changed in 5 years, and the economics start to make more sense, along with the cultural shift.



You may see it as being behind, I think it's more like good timing. Surly had Tesla had the timing right, they wouldn't have struggled so much with profitability and hitting their pricing targets. At least a few of the other giants would have jumped in, had it seemed like a market worth entering at the time. The fact that none did, and now they all are doesn't strike me as being caught off guard. These companies aren't dummies. Well, some are. But all of them? Not likely. Tesla has had a good run competition free, but they are in for some real challenges from companies that have a lot more experience and brand power than they do.

[Azure]

I don't get it. Tesla has demand that far outpaces their ability to build factories and cars fast enough.

How can you say that the legacy makers looked at EVs and decided it was not the time?

Fact is they screwed up on it and Tesla is years ahead. Something most people agree with.

I'm also not sure why you think Tesla is going to run into an issue down the road either. Sure, other auto-makers are going to come out with their version of the EV, but some of them won't. Some of them will die off because they can't retool their factories, nor raise the capital to build new factories. Tesla is effectively funding their business with their stock price. Just a couple weeks ago they raised $5 billion in cash from a stock sale, something the other car markers can't do.

The other thing that is happening which you completely refuse to acknowledge is how much battery production is NEEDED to meet market demand, and how much of that Tesla is at this point producing. I just don't see where other car makers are going to turn a switch and fund a $10 billion dollar battery production plant and do what Tesla does in a time frame quick enough to catch up. I just don't.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Azure

I don't get it. Tesla has demand that far outpaces their ability to build factories and cars fast enough.

How can you say that the legacy makers looked at EVs and decided it was not the time?

Fact is they screwed up on it and Tesla is years ahead. Something most people agree with.

I'm also not sure why you think Tesla is going to run into an issue down the road either. Sure, other auto-makers are going to come out with their version of the EV, but some of them won't. Some of them will die off because they can't retool their factories, nor raise the capital to build new factories. Tesla is effectively funding their business with their stock price. Just a couple weeks ago they raised $5 billion in cash from a stock sale, something the other car markers can't do.

The other thing that is happening which you completely refuse to acknowledge is how much battery production is NEEDED to meet market demand, and how much of that Tesla is at this point producing. I just don't see where other car makers are going to turn a switch and fund a $10 billion dollar battery production plant and do what Tesla does in a time frame quick enough to catch up. I just don't.

That's an opinion that they screwed up, I laid out reasons why they may have been waiting for the right opportunity. What are the odds that every auto manufacturer on the planet got caught with their pants down? I'm not trying to be argumentative, it's just how I see it. We will just have to wait and see how it plays out.

It's not like Tesla is raking money in hand over fist, Elon acknowledged it is really really hard, and only recently have they had any profit at all. Why would someone like GM or Ford or VW dive into an unprofitable segment 5 years early, when they can wait for the right timing to do it?

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

That's an opinion that they screwed up, I laid out reasons why they may have been waiting for the right opportunity. What are the odds that every auto manufacturer on the planet got caught with their pants down? I'm not trying to be argumentative, it's just how I see it. We will just have to wait and see how it plays out.

It's not like Tesla is raking money in hand over fist, Elon acknowledged it is really really hard, and only recently have they had any profit at all. Why would someone like GM or Ford or VW dive into an unprofitable segment 5 years early, when they can wait for the right timing to do it?

Subsidies will only take Tesla so far until they will have to stand on their own two legs and go toe to toe with more polished EV's from legacy manufacturers. Legacy manufacturers will catch up but only when it's profitable and once that happens there really won't be any compelling reason to purchase a Tesla unless you are a fanboy.

[Fuzz]

Good point on the subsidies too. Tesla makes a large amount of money form other manufactures buying emission credits from them. Those will dwindle and disappear as those manufacturers green their lineup.

I really do think it is only a matter of time before the car division of Tesla gets bought out, and at that point I don't think Musk will care. Though that will take time for the insane valuation to come down to earth. I'd be surprise din a decade if Tesla is still independent. Small car manufacturers don't last all that long.

[zamler]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I'm honestly not sure how true that is. I suspect, since they all seem to be on the same path, they looked at it 5 years ago and decided then was not the time, but were working all the same behind the scenes. A lot has changed in 5 years, and the economics start to make more sense, along with the cultural shift.

What other auto maker is building out giga style factories to produce billions of battery cells? Economies of scale don't work themselves out you have to start, then streamline. That process doesn't fall from the sky.

You may see it as being behind, I think it's more like good timing.

First mover advantage is real.

Surly had Tesla had the timing right, they wouldn't have struggled so much with profitability and hitting their pricing targets.

Build out costs, that is why Tesla is not making money hand over fist. I am baffled how so many people don't realize this.

At least a few of the other giants would have jumped in, had it seemed like a market worth entering at the time. The fact that none did, and now they all are doesn't strike me as being caught off guard. These companies aren't dummies.

The evidence points to the legacy auto makers being big fat stupid dummies. They have let Tesla go uncontested in the fasted growing segment, and are sitting around while Tesla is doing all the hard stuff to make energy storage in mass quantities. And as I keep saying, they are hopelessly behind in software.

Well, some are. But all of them? Not likely. Tesla has had a good run competition free, but they are in for some real challenges from companies that have a lot more experience and brand power than they do.

The legacy auto makers have competition and they are doing just fine, why do you think Tesla can't compete? Because the other auto makers have been in business longer? Why is there room for dozens of auto makers but as soon as Tesla has competition they are doomed.

5 years ago I listened to experts claim as soon as the established brands start making EVs it's game over for Tesla. In that time Tesla has gone largely uncontested, the "killer" EVs from Mercedes, Jaguar and Audi sell in low numbers, are expensive, have less range/efficiency, way worse software, and worse packaging.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

That's an opinion that they screwed up, I laid out reasons why they may have been waiting for the right opportunity. What are the odds that every auto manufacturer on the planet got caught with their pants down? I'm not trying to be argumentative, it's just how I see it. We will just have to wait and see how it plays out.

It's not like Tesla is raking money in hand over fist, Elon acknowledged it is really really hard, and only recently have they had any profit at all. Why would someone like GM or Ford or VW dive into an unprofitable segment 5 years early, when they can wait for the right timing to do it?

Again, profitability doesn't mean anything to Tesla when you can fund your expansion by issuing stock sales and completely avoiding the debt markets.

Traditional auto-makers can't do that, so trying to raise capital to fund $100B projects is not something their shareholders will agree with considering their margins have been flat for a while, and the capital will almost certainly come at a big cost.

That is why you can't just look at how profitable a company is and use it as a sticking point over whether or not they are ahead or behind someone else.

Tesla is also currently doing stuff, and developing tech that nobody else is currently doing. What they are doing is generating demand that they cannot meet. The way I see it, any auto-maker that wants to do the same thing will need be at least 5-10 years behind, which at this point is not something they will ever catch up too. The 5-10 years is the time that Tesla has spent getting to where they are now.

We are talking about economies of scale here, and not something as simple as build a factory, sell a car.

Most of the major auto-makers have also had some form of EV in their product lineup for quite a while and have never come close to generating the demand that Tesla has. So of course they will think that there is no point in spending billions more to compete with Tesla. But wait, they ARE actually spending billions already, and have nothing that comes even close.

So not sure why you think they haven't tried, and aren't failing miserably.

The biggest hurdle Tesla had was their manufacturing hell, and the inability to even remotely meet demand or growth. They have overcome this issue, and on top of that they are now building massive factories in 15 months to move even further head.

I honestly think most legacy car-makers are dead in the water. Tesla will be more valuable than Apple in 10 years.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Good point on the subsidies too. Tesla makes a large amount of money form other manufactures buying emission credits from them. Those will dwindle and disappear as those manufacturers green their lineup.

I really do think it is only a matter of time before the car division of Tesla gets bought out, and at that point I don't think Musk will care. Though that will take time for the insane valuation to come down to earth. I'd be surprise din a decade if Tesla is still independent. Small car manufacturers don't last all that long.

If you actually believe this you are completely delusional and have zero to no understanding about the technology or development that Tesla is doing.

I'm not TRYING to sound like a Musk fanboy, but this is about the dumbest Tesla evaluation I have read in a long, long, long time.

There are verified sources saying Tesla has 600,000 preorders for the Cybertruck alone. Musk himself said there are over 500k right now. And you think their auto-division will sell out?

Who goes through hell and back to develop a product this hard, goes through a massive hurdle to figure out the manufacturing process, and then once all that is done and you have absolutely massive demand for your product, and FINALLY a glimmer of manufacturing capability to produce them, you sell off?

Seriously, why? You literally make no sense. None.

[zamler]

"Waiting for the right time" is a hilarious take it's another way of saying we'll follow and hope for the best not innovate. I do find it odd that some think energy storage is an abstract concept or it just magically exists. It's quite simple but insanely challenging at the same time, make billions of reliable battery cells cost effectively.

[Fuzz]

LOL, you guys are out of control. I'm making a prediction, how I see it playing out. You disagree, that's fine. No need to call me an idiot who doesn't understand anything.

I mean, your the one saying most legacy automakers are dead. I strongly disagree, and think that's far more extreme than anything I have said.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by zamler

"Waiting for the right time" is a hilarious take it's another way of saying we'll follow and hope for the best not innovate. I do find it odd that some think energy storage is an abstract concept or it just magically exists. It's quite simple but insanely challenging at the same time, make billions of reliable battery cells cost effectively.

Why would they spend tens of billions to develop an electric car, when emissions weren't as big a deal as they are now, on technologies that are rapidly advancing, all to sell vehicles for 5 years that barely break even? Doesn't that seem ridiculous to you? Tesla will be abandoning the battery tech the spent so long developing with barley any profit form it as they shift to new, better technologies. So why jump in when you can't make an affordable car, rather than wait until you can? Does the industry owe Tesla a huge debt of gratitude for going through the process? Absolutely. But it doesn't make it a dumb business move to sit on the sidelines for a bit.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

LOL, you guys are out of control. I'm making a prediction, how I see it playing out. You disagree, that's fine. No need to call me an idiot who doesn't understand anything.

I mean, your the one saying most legacy automakers are dead. I strongly disagree, and think that's far more extreme than anything I have said.

You said Tesla will sell out and legacy car makers will overtake them.

Even the most delusional analysts who are about as negative as one can be about Tesla don't go that far.

Also, I said they are dead in the water in the context of EV sales. Which they are. Look at the numbers.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Why would they spend tens of billions to develop an electric car, when emissions weren't as big a deal as they are now, on technologies that are rapidly advancing, all to sell vehicles for 5 years that barely break even? Doesn't that seem ridiculous to you? Tesla will be abandoning the battery tech the spent so long developing with barley any profit form it as they shift to new, better technologies. So why jump in when you can't make an affordable car, rather than wait until you can? Does the industry owe Tesla a huge debt of gratitude for going through the process? Absolutely. But it doesn't make it a dumb business move to sit on the sidelines for a bit.

You do realize they are literally spending tens of billions already?

Ford, GM, VW....all of them have invested billions in EVs already and have pretty much nothing to show for.

From 2018.

DETROIT (Reuters) – Ford Motor Co’s plan to double its electrified vehicle spending is part of an investment tsunami in batteries and electric cars by global automakers that now totals $90 billion and is still growing, a Reuters analysis shows.

https://www.gteccanada.ca/global-car...tric-vehicles/

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Azure

Again, profitability doesn't mean anything to Tesla when you can fund your expansion by issuing stock sales and completely avoiding the debt markets.

You make it sound like that will last forever. Profitability will have to matter for them eventually as stock sales will dry up when every other auto manufacturer is offering the same or similar technology.