[GT] The Athletic - Top 50 Drafted NHL Prospects - 2 Flames Make Cut

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Rando

Fox has only not been Flame property for a year now. His current assessment is similar to what it was a year after after his second season. If someone says they rated him behind Valimaki a year ago and rates him the same now, that argument is valid.

If Fox's value had skyrocketed in the last year I'd agree with you, but it hasn't.

Who is saying that what someone says isn’t valid? Don’t put words in my mouth.

Now a year ago Fox was already traded. So that’s a bad timeline so unless you’re some fan that constantly ranks your favorite Flame prospects based on all currently available info I would say the last time most people objectively compared Fox to the other D prospects was 2 off seasons ago. And most would have had him behind IMO.

Fox’s value has consistently gone up since his draft year. Good for him.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I don't know why so many fans are hung up on Fox. Yes the Flames drafted him but he was never going to play here and who cares if some guy thinks he's a top 15 NHL prospect? Until he actually does anything noteworthy in the NHL I fail to see how he's any different than other past prospects that strong-armed their way into that market only to bust or become just an average NHL player.

I don’t get it either but I guess it happens when any player get traded.

[Rando]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Who is saying that what someone says isn’t valid? Don’t put words in my mouth.

Excuse me? Never put words in your mouth, was simply backing up Enoch Root's assessment by saying it's a valid reason.

Now a year ago Fox was already traded. So that’s a bad timeline so unless you’re some fan that constantly ranks your favorite Flame prospects based on all currently available info I would say the last time most people objectively compared Fox to the other D prospects was 2 off seasons ago. And most would have had him behind IMO.

This is bordering on pedantic!

Adam Fox was traded from the Flames to Carolina June 23rd 2018, I think it's reasonable to say "a year ago" in this case. Perfectly fair timeline.

There is no certain date you can compare prospects. The Flames off season had already started when Fox was traded to Carolina in this case and I have no doubt Flames fans on many types of social media had been ranking their prospects, especially leading into the NHL draft, the biggest time for prospects. Little doubt that a year ago year plus one month fans of all bases were ranking their prospects. Objectively ranking them.

Fox’s value has consistently gone up since his draft year. Good for him.

100%, so has Valimaki's who wasn't viewed as a potential top pairing guy when drafted but is now IMO.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Rando

Excuse me? Never put words in your mouth, was simply backing up Enoch Root's assessment by saying it's a valid reason.



This is bordering on pedantic!

Adam Fox was traded from the Flames to Carolina June 23rd 2018, I think it's reasonable to say "a year ago" in this case. Perfectly fair timeline.

There is no certain date you can compare prospects. The Flames off season had already started when Fox was traded to Carolina in this case and I have no doubt Flames fans on many types of social media had been ranking their prospects, especially leading into the NHL draft, the biggest time for prospects. Little doubt that a year ago year plus one month fans of all bases were ranking their prospects. Objectively ranking them.


100%, so has Valimaki's who wasn't viewed as a potential top pairing guy when drafted but is now IMO.

I’m not even sure what you’re trying to argue here my friend. You can rank prospects here all you like, the fact that Fox was traded affects how Flames fans view him is my point. I think rankings for those that care to do them tend to evolve over summer as other informed opinions start to emerge.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Who is saying that what someone says isn’t valid? Don’t put words in my mouth.

Now a year ago Fox was already traded. So that’s a bad timeline so unless you’re some fan that constantly ranks your favorite Flame prospects based on all currently available info I would say the last time most people objectively compared Fox to the other D prospects was 2 off seasons ago. And most would have had him behind IMO.

Fox’s value has consistently gone up since his draft year. Good for him.

I guess it depends on how you define "objective" in this instance. Sure, there is no data from which we can draw to see where Adam Fox ranked in the thinking of the majority of posters on this board, but I don't think we have to if the argument is that he was legitimately behind other of the Flames defensive prospects. It would require one to review the trade thread from last year, but from what I recall there were PLENTY of posters who saw either Fox as #4 on the Flames's list of young blueliners at the time of the trade behind all of Valimaki (#1), Andersson (#2), and Kylington (#6), or in a dead-heat with Kylington behind the other two.

It seems pretty likely to me that had he been included in last year's prospect rankings, Fox would not have supplanted either one of the top two, who BOTH played NHL games last year. There is actually some pretty good discussion about it ...

Originally Posted by wingmaker

[Adam Fox] was ranked #7 last year. Have to think he'd be in the top five or potentially top three. Some people think he is a better prospect than Valamaki but I doubt he'd have been voted top spot.

Originally Posted by Imported_Aussie

Fox would be below Valimaki, Andersson, Parsons, Dube, Gillies and Mangiapane for me. In same tier as Kylington, Foo, ahead of Klimchuk, Phillips

So lower part of top 10 and close to Kylington as the 3 and 4 ranked defencemen on the list

Originally Posted by Imported_Aussie

To me, Fox has a high ceiling, but may also not make the NHL as a regular. Kylington is in the same boat.
Valimaki and Andersson will be NHLers, and soon, yet neither gives much of a drop off to Fox in terms of ceiling. You could argue one/both may have a higher ceiling - up to your perspective

Fox may end up the best, but he is more of a risk.
But that is what makes these rankings so great - everyone has a slightly different methodology and how much emphasis they place on pure upside vs likelihood of having an NHL career (and the role they would have)

As to why such a highly rated prospect could be dealt, with the Flames having 2 strong prospects with high likelihood of NHL careers, and adding Hanifin under team control for 4 more years, that's 3 young guys before looking at Kulak (low ceiling, high floor) and Kylington (high ceiling, low floor). Even if one/both of Brodie and Hamonic leave via trade/UFA in the next couple of years, that is a pretty strong pipeline, which is what made Fox expendable.
And as for Fox vs Kylington, maybe it is better the boom/bust guy you control vs the one you risk losing? Both have that dynamic quality that teases upside, but both have barriers to being NHLers

Originally Posted by 868904

Valimaki is top dog for sure.

Size, skill, and skating. Resume looks good. Complete package. If there were a 5 tool rating system in hockey like in baseball, Valimaki would meet them all as a defensemen.

Only thing keeping Andersson below Valimaki is the skating issue. It sounds like it has progressed, but it's probably not on par with Valimaki's.

As for where Fox would be, he'd be 3rd or 4th ranked for me, behind the above two and on par with Kylington. Fox has the best resume of the 4 defensemen, but he is inferior to Valimaki in skating and size, inferior to Andersson in size, and inferior to Kylington in skating. Where you rank Fox depends on how much more weight you put on hockey sense (which Fox exudes) over size and skating.

Originally Posted by FBI

[Fox would have ranked] probably around 5th for me if I didn't have to worry about him signing or not. Lower if I was still worried about him signing.

I am well aware that this is all anecdotal, but it sure appears a hell of a lot more "objective" than merely pointing out how quickly Fox's draft stock has risen.

[Strange Brew]

A lot of ink being spilled worried about how one guy rated Adam Fox.

And TC, Flames fans may be objective when rating our own prospects but not comparing to those of other teams was my point.

I guess are people trying to say these high ratings of Fox are wrong? Or they under valued Fox? Or no one appreciates how great our other guys are?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

A lot of ink being spilled worried about how one guy rated Adam Fox.

And TC, Flames fans may be objective when rating our own prospects but not comparing to those of other teams was my point.

I guess are people trying to say these high ratings of Fox are wrong? Or they under valued Fox? Or no one appreciates how great our other guys are?

I would say they are.

Something else to consider is the reciprocal impact of bias on the part of observers outside of the market. We have watched Fox closely precisely because he was Flames property and we are Flames fans. But he suddenly gained a tonne of additional outside-market attention when at first he 1) allegedly declined a contract offer from the Flames last year, and opted to return to College; 2) was then seemingly abruptly moved when it looked like the Flames would eventually lose him to UFA; 3) then again declined to sign with Carolina a year later, thus prompting another trade.

All of this activity dramatically increased Adam Fox's own visibility, and I think arguably contributed significantly to increasing his own stock elsewhere.

[Strange Brew]

I guess we’ll see if “we” are right. He might actually be pretty good which wouldn’t bother me in the least.

[Incogneto]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

Technically 3 flames draft picks!

Adam Fox is #10 on the list.

We can complain about certain things as fans over the past few years, but the flames' drafting is not one of them.

4 if you include Dobson at #21. This was the Flames pick for the Islanders in the Hamonic trade.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I guess we’ll see if “we” are right. He might actually be pretty good which wouldn’t bother me in the least.

I don't think anyone should be bothered, because Fox is a really good prospect. Even if he is not as good as Andersson or Valimaki he should still be a solid NHL player.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Incogneto

4 if you include Dobson at #21. This was the Flames pick for the Islanders in the Hamonic trade.

Yeah, it doesn't work like that.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I would say they are.

Something else to consider is the reciprocal impact of bias on the part of observers outside of the market. We have watched Fox closely precisely because he was Flames property and we are Flames fans. But he suddenly gained a tonne of additional outside-market attention when at first he 1) allegedly declined a contract offer from the Flames last year, and opted to return to College; 2) was then seemingly abruptly moved when it looked like the Flames would eventually lose him to UFA; 3) then again declined to sign with Carolina a year later, thus prompting another trade.

All of this activity dramatically increased Adam Fox's own visibility, and I think arguably contributed significantly to increasing his own stock elsewhere.

Coincidentally thats when his stock around here plummeted too. Just like Lucic suddenly isn't the worst player in the NHL anymore. Hyperbole for effect.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Coincidentally thats when his stock around here plummeted too. Just like Lucic suddenly isn't the worst player in the NHL anymore. Hyperbole for effect.

His stock didn't plummet with respect to how good he is - that hasn't changed at all from what I can see. What changed is peoples' attitude towards him for (presumably) not wanting to sign here. That all seems rather expected to me, and not hyperbolic at all.

And the only people that I see that think Lucic is the worst player in the NHL are Oiler fans. I think the general view is/was that he was a boat anchor because of his contract. But arguably still the 4th or 5th best forward on the Oil.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

His stock didn't plummet with respect to how good he is - that hasn't changed at all from what I can see. What changed is peoples' attitude towards him for (presumably) not wanting to sign here. That all seems rather expected to me, and not hyperbolic at all.

And the only people that I see that think Lucic is the worst player in the NHL are Oiler fans. I think the general view is/was that he was a boat anchor because of his contract. But arguably still the 4th or 5th best forward on the Oil.

Haha what? Thanks for proving my post here.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Haha what? Thanks for proving my post here.

Who's better? He was 6th in points.

Chiasson was 4th, with considerable time on the top line. Once removed from that, he immediately resorted to being the replacement player that he is.

Kassian was 5th. The same McDavid effect exists, but Kassian brings the same physicality that Lucic brings, so an argument can be made here.

Who else? Oiler fans hate Lucic because of his contract - is he worth $6M? Obviously not. But straight-up against that tire fire last year, no one else was any better.

Instead of just shouting 'hyperbole", how about you post something useful? Make an argument.

[Weitz]

Watch a game? Points aren’t everything Lucic was so bad in the bottom 6 that they traded him for arguably the worst player on another team, retained salary, and gave up a conditional pick. He was that bad and from what I’ve heard toxic in the dressing room (anecdotal I know).

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Watch a game? Points aren’t everything Lucic was so bad in the bottom 6 that they traded him for arguably the worst player on another team, retained salary, and gave up a conditional pick. He was that bad and from what I’ve heard toxic in the dressing room (anecdotal I know).

I watch many of their games (easily north of 40). Yes, points aren't everything - especially for a guy who's game is all about physicality now. And yet he was still up the list for points. No doubt there were some attitude issues, as his ice time and role were reduced. And as I said, he wasn't close to earning his contract, but that's a different argument.

He was bad last year - terrible even. But still arguably about the 5th best forward on the roster.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

He was bad last year - terrible even. But still arguably about the 5th best forward on the roster.

Except he wasn’t unless you are trying to justify something.

[Erick Estrada]

I watched a lot of Oilers games last year and Lucic was usually amongst the worst players for either team. I would be surprised if he’s a regular in the press box in the 2nd half of the season.

[Rando]

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