[Signing] Oilers extend F Leon Draisaitl (8x$14M AAV)

[Groot]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Without going back through everything to find it, what’s the evidence supporting this?

I got you. The evidence is Sidney Crosby. That's it.

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Yes - I am using Crosby as a single data point.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Without going back through everything to find it, what’s the evidence supporting this?

orange and blue coloured glasses

[McG]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Without going back through everything to find it, what’s the evidence supporting this?

Big jug of koolaid.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

If Cale Makar was available in UFA to Calgary - I would have no issue with the Flames giving up 7 Years + $14M+ per season until Age 36.

I bet Cale Makar would be closer to $20mil AAV by 2027 with cap increases and being likely the best if not one of the best d-men in the NHL.

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by jayswin

I bet Cale Makar would be closer to $20mil AAV by 2027 with cap increases and being likely the best if not one of the best d-men in the NHL.

To play devil's advocate, Mcdavid is up in 2026. Do you think Makar will get more than Mcdavid?

Not saying who's the better player,.

And do you really think Makar will get close to $20M?

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

To play devil's advocate, Mcdavid is up in 2026. Do you think Makar will get more than Mcdavid?

Not saying who's the better player,.

And do you really think Makar will get close to $20M?

Eventually I think you will see max contracts become commonplace. Why it hasn’t happened yet, I have no idea.

An unintended consequence of the CBA/salary cap will be stars, scrubs, and ELCs. I think we will see an increasing number of mid-tier players realize that they can get more money in Europe and go there.

In baseball you can already see this, with no cap. No one is getting an Albert Pujols deal anymore. They’re reserved for young players like Wander Franco (ouch), Bobby Witt Jr., and Julio Rodriguez. No one is giving these out to 30-year-olds because they’re not a smart idea.

To your point, the type of player who’s actually worth that gamble is someone like Bedard, whose peak has yet to occur. Not spending an insane amount on a player who is in decline like Draisaitl will be.

[dino7c]

I don't see max contracts...NHL rosters are too big and its too much of a team sport

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I don't see max contracts...NHL rosters are too big and its too much of a team sport

Yes, and the best players get the best results when they have top-quality linemates. It's a poor allocation of cap space to give one player $20 million and then give him schlubs for linemates.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Yes, and the best players get the best results when they have top-quality linemates. It's a poor allocation of cap space to give one player $20 million and then give him schlubs for linemates.

I hear you, but what’s your play if Connor Bedard says max or bridge to UFA?

Or…max or I’m waiting for a max offer sheet?

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by butterfly

I hear you, but what’s your play if Connor Bedard says max or bridge to UFA?

Or…max or I’m waiting for a max offer sheet?

You say no.

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I don't see max contracts...NHL rosters are too big and its too much of a team sport

Just defer most of the money to year 9 then the player gets their cash and the AAV is low so you can sign whatever you need

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by butterfly

I hear you, but what’s your play if Connor Bedard says max or bridge to UFA?

Or…max or I’m waiting for a max offer sheet?

I think you'll see some contracts like that, but it will handcuff the team in terms of building a complete roster. Savvy GMs will catch on to this and likely refuse to pay max contracts out of ELC. Look at the Oilers, they have the best 1C/2C combo in the NHL - but are unable to fill out the roster properly because they are up against the cap. Those aren't even max contracts. They were 1 game away from a stanley cup, but Connor McDavids are very few and far between.

[GioforPM]

A max offer sheet would be insane. Pay that much of your cap AND give up the compensation to prevent you from building around him?

[Saqe]

Really doubt we'll see 20M deals in five years. More like the 15M or whatever McDavid will get sets the benchmark and we'll see more deals like him from lesser players.

[PepsiFree]

In the last 10 years the highest single season salary has risen by 2.7M while the cap has risen by 19M.

If the cap goes up another 20M maybe you see guys making 18 or 19, but their cap hit will probably be lower as they’ll have lower years attached. If you’re looking at contracts with balanced salaries over the duration, I don’t think that’ll crest 17M in the next five years.

[dino7c]

see the Crosby thread for a real discount contract

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Without going back through everything to find it, what’s the evidence supporting this?

The higher % share of points coming from PP which has contributed to the increased scoring rates in general.

In 2015-16 - there was Patrick Kane at 106 points and then Jamie Benn at 89 points.

Just last year, there were 19 players with 89+ points.

Hockey has completely changed in front of our very eyes. There is also a distinct difference between hockey played pre-covid and post-covid. There is a real movement to reduce physicality and display/showcase the skill game and increase scoring rates further. There is a real reason to do this and grow the game in the US/++ TV Deals. ++Scoring ++Entertainment for the mass public.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

The higher % share of points coming from PP which has contributed to the increased scoring rates in general.

In 2015-16 - there was Patrick Kane at 106 points and then Jamie Benn at 89 points.

Just last year, there were 19 players with 89+ points.

Hockey has completely changed in front of our very eyes. There is also a distinct difference between hockey played pre-covid and post-covid. There is a real movement to reduce physicality and display/showcase the skill game and increase scoring rates further. There is a real reason to do this and grow the game in the US/++ TV Deals. ++Scoring ++Entertainment for the mass public.

OK… but if scoring is up for everyone that doesn’t really speak to the decline being slowed or fundamentally changing.

Scenario A has the average top players scoring 100 pts/season for 20 years.
Player A averages 100pts/season for the first 10, and 80pts/season for the last 10.

That’s regression.

Scenario B has the average top players scoring 100 pts/season for 10 years, and then 140 pts/season for 10 years.
Player B averages 100 pts/season for 20 years.

That’s even steeper regression, even though his stat line doesn’t change.

If scoring goes up and player’s stat lines don’t go up as quickly, stay the same, or go down by any measure, those are all signs of regression.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

OK… but if scoring is up for everyone that doesn’t really speak to the decline being slowed or fundamentally changing.

Scenario A has the average top players scoring 100 pts/season for 20 years.
Player A averages 100pts/season for the first 10, and 80pts/season for the last 10.

That’s regression.

Scenario B has the average top players scoring 100 pts/season for 10 years, and then 140 pts/season for 10 years.
Player B averages 100 pts/season for 20 years.

That’s even steeper regression, even though his stat line doesn’t change.

If scoring goes up and player’s stat lines don’t go up as quickly, stay the same, or go down by any measure, those are all signs of regression.

Yes I agree. But as time goes on- the Cap Hit as a % of Total Cap Space also declines.

These are all calculations that are done at the outset during contract negotiations. How much would a 90 point Draisaitl at Age 35 be worth as a % of cap? I'm sure this contract is in the ballpark of that figure. probably something like 12% - equivalent to a ~$10M contract last season. About a ~3% annual escalator in cap over the term of the contract - 8 years.

I'm not arguing this is a discount contract. This is a market value contract for the player but he is very much in the ballpark of that in terms of value over the life of the contract. I don't anticipate it to "age poorly" is all I'm saying.

[Groot]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

The higher % share of points coming from PP which has contributed to the increased scoring rates in general.

In 2015-16 - there was Patrick Kane at 106 points and then Jamie Benn at 89 points.

Just last year, there were 19 players with 89+ points.

Hockey has completely changed in front of our very eyes. There is also a distinct difference between hockey played pre-covid and post-covid. There is a real movement to reduce physicality and display/showcase the skill game and increase scoring rates further. There is a real reason to do this and grow the game in the US/++ TV Deals. ++Scoring ++Entertainment for the mass public.

https://records.nhl.com/records/team...als-one-season

I stopped looking around the 250th ranked team, but there is a single team from the past 10 years in the top 250 for PP goals scored in a season, the 2022-2023 Oilers with 89 for 79th place.

Your other point is accurate in the move towards showcasing the skill game and much more the reason for the scoring increase than any PP increase which goal totals don't support