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View Poll Results: Best guess for Tkachuk's contract result
8 @ 7M 10 1.61%
8 @ 8M 41 6.59%
8 @ 9M 21 3.38%
8 @ 10M 8 1.29%
7 @ 7M 21 3.38%
7 @ 8M 61 9.81%
7 @ 9M 19 3.05%
7 @ 10M 3 0.48%
6 @ 6M 4 0.64%
6 @ 7M 48 7.72%
6 @ 8M 126 20.26%
6 @ 9M 27 4.34%
5 @ 6M 3 0.48%
5 @ 7M 56 9.00%
5 @ 8M 66 10.61%
5 @ 9M 10 1.61%
4 @ 5M 1 0.16%
4 @ 6M 4 0.64%
4 @ 7M 19 3.05%
3 @ 4M 2 0.32%
3 @ 5M 4 0.64%
3 @ 6M 46 7.40%
2 @ 4M 3 0.48%
2 @ 5M 15 2.41%
1 @ 4M 1 0.16%
1 @ 5M 3 0.48%
Voters: 622. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 08-23-2019, 11:41 AM   #841
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Hahaha! No.

The Flames will not sign a deal that takes Tkachuk straight to UFA without buying at least one UFA year. That is the underlying rationale behind Meier’s deal; Tkachuk will most definitely get more money.


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Cap Friendlly has Meier with the expiry status of RFA at the end of his 4 year deal


They are both coming off of their ELC. Same ELC signing age same Waiver signing age - Why would Tkachuk be a UFA at the end of the deal and Meier not?

Both drafted out of the CHL.

Meier is a year older and had a ELC slide year??
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Old 08-23-2019, 11:41 AM   #842
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Meier 4x6 RFA at the end of his contract for 1 more season.

35 goals 81 pts in 98 NHL games 4th in his teams scoring in reg season 5th in +/- on team regular season

Tkachuk

36 goals 80 pts in 85 NHL games 4th in reg season team scoring 11th in +/-


They are the same size and both play with an edge.

A precedent has been set for a really really close comparable player. Tkachuk had a better regular season and Meier stepped up in the playoffs.

The only way that Tkachuk gets a significantly better contract than that is if gets an offer sheet like Aho.

4 x 6.2 ???
1) No one is basing contract value off of plus minus. Regardless, Tkachuk is a more well rounded player.

2) Tkachuk played on a shutdown line against the best players in the league.

3) What edge does Meier play with? Love the player, but he doesn't play Tkachuk's style at all.

4) Meier CF Rel% 5.2% - Tkachuk CF Rel% 12.6%

5) Meier achieved 108 points in 193 games during his in 20, 21, and 22 year old seasons for a PPG of 0.55. Tkachuk achieved 174 points in 224 games during his 18, 19, and 20 year old seasons for a PPG of 0.77.

The precedent has not been set- not even close. Tkachuk's cap hit will be substantially larger thane Meier's. Preparing for anything different is just setting yourself up for disappointment.
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Old 08-23-2019, 11:44 AM   #843
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Then why do it?
might literally be the only way to fit Tkachuk in.
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Old 08-23-2019, 11:55 AM   #844
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Originally Posted by ricardodw View Post
Meier 4x6 RFA at the end of his contract for 1 more season.

35 goals 81 pts in 98 NHL games 4th in his teams scoring in reg season 5th in +/- on team regular season

Tkachuk

36 goals 80 pts in 85 NHL games 4th in reg season team scoring 11th in +/-


They are the same size and both play with an edge.

A precedent has been set for a really really close comparable player. Tkachuk had a better regular season and Meier stepped up in the playoffs.

The only way that Tkachuk gets a significantly better contract than that is if gets an offer sheet like Aho.

4 x 6.2 ???
The Meier contract has a wrinkle though, an interesting one.

The last year is $10M in salary meaning they will have to qualify him at $10M to retain his rights.

Bit of a gamble.
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Old 08-26-2019, 10:44 AM   #845
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The Meier contract has a wrinkle though, an interesting one.

The last year is $10M in salary meaning they will have to qualify him at $10M to retain his rights.

Bit of a gamble.
Interesting but I don't see it as a problem. They will just extend him before the contract expires and avoid that situation altogether.
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Old 08-26-2019, 10:59 AM   #846
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Interesting but I don't see it as a problem. They will just extend him before the contract expires and avoid that situation altogether.
Likely the case but far from a guarantee if Meier doesn't opt to sign an extension and regardless it gives him a lot of negotiating power. From his side there are two "worst case scenarios" that fall heavily in his favour:
  • he signs a single-year 10M contract that makes him UFA as early as possible.
  • he becomes a UFA even earlier than the 27/7 rule if he isn't qualified at 10M.
Both would normally be best case scenarios for a UFA like him (assuming he isn't injured in the next couple years), which means the Sharks have very little negotiating power. It's a very interesting contract in that it's getting very close to a 34M, 5 year contract with an opt-out year disguised as 24M, 4 year contract.
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Old 08-26-2019, 11:42 AM   #847
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50 mil over 6 years. 8.33 aav.

1:6.5
2:6.5
3:7
4:9
5:10
6:11

Notes: Gio cap theoretically kept during Gio's contract. Tkachuk becomes the highest paid player on the team (and potentially the highest ever paid flame by the final season.) 8.3 is a lot but manageable.
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Old 08-26-2019, 07:04 PM   #848
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Although I think the Gio cap is complete fan and media created BS at this point, I do agree with the contract you created and would be content with it.
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Old 08-26-2019, 07:06 PM   #849
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It's more realistic than posters basically creating what they hope he signs for than what he likely signs for. "I think we could get him for $7.15 over 7 years". Oh yeah? Cool. Wouldn't happen but nice thought to hold onto until the contract is signed, I guess.
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Old 08-26-2019, 08:57 PM   #850
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I like what Crosby said on the Podcast, Spittin Chiclets, when asked about signing a his 10 year contract at 8.7 AAV; that helping your team by taking a hometown discount only works when the whole team takes a hometown discount.

Maybe, just maybe Tkachuk will place an equal value on winning as he does on making the max $.

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Old 08-26-2019, 10:12 PM   #851
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I like what Crosby said on the Podcast, Spittin Chiclets, when asked about signing a his 10 year contract at 8.7 AAV; that helping your team by taking a hometown discount only works when the whole team takes a hometown discount.

Maybe, just maybe Tkachuk will place an equal value on winning as he does on making the max $.
This is bull ####. When Crosby signed his deal it was on a now illegal back-diving structure (12 years, by the way, not 10), and it represented 14.5% of the salary cap. In today’s NHL that contract would carry an $11.8 m cap hit at minimum. Crosby will earn $104 m on his current contract. To make the same money in today’s NHL would require—not factoring into consideration six years inflation—on a maximum term deal a cap hit of $13 m.


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Old 08-27-2019, 07:19 AM   #852
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Although I think the Gio cap is complete fan and media created BS at this point, I do agree with the contract you created and would be content with it.

Hasn’t Treliving referenced it himself multiple times?
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Old 08-27-2019, 07:22 AM   #853
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Hasn’t Treliving referenced it himself multiple times?
This, and the fact that it was the very basis for negotiation with Monahan and Gaudreau's deals. Gaudreau's camp was asking for at least 8, but then negotiated down below the Gio cap.
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Old 08-27-2019, 08:02 AM   #854
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What high-end contracts is Tkachuk actually benchmarked against if Nylander is basically at $6.6m for cap purposes and Mathews is in a different tier?

I can see him getting anywhere from $6.75m-$8.5m on a six year deal and I think anyone can make up a lot of persuasive arguments for any number in that range.
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Old 08-27-2019, 08:15 AM   #855
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This, and the fact that it was the very basis for negotiation with Monahan and Gaudreau's deals. Gaudreau's camp was asking for at least 8, but then negotiated down below the Gio cap.
Wasn’t Gaudreau’s contract structure essentially a confirmation of the ‘Gio-cap’?
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Old 08-27-2019, 08:20 AM   #856
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Wasn’t Gaudreau’s contract structure essentially a confirmation of the ‘Gio-cap’?
I can’t find a quote but I recall him saying it outright on the Fan.
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Old 08-27-2019, 08:28 AM   #857
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This, and the fact that it was the very basis for negotiation with Monahan and Gaudreau's deals. Gaudreau's camp was asking for at least 8, but then negotiated down below the Gio cap.
I think the amount went down when the term was reduced.

If Calgary wants to ensure that Tkachuk signs below the Gio cap, they'll likely need to give him a 60 game contract....
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Old 08-27-2019, 08:35 AM   #858
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I think the amount went down when the term was reduced.

If Calgary wants to ensure that Tkachuk signs below the Gio cap, they'll likely need to give him a 60 game contract....
% dude...
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Old 08-27-2019, 08:42 AM   #859
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I think the Gio-cap is real, but I don't understand why it's even relevant anymore. It wouldn't have anything to do with AAV - that wouldn't make sense. It would be tied to annual salary while Giordano is on this team, which is 3 more years @ 6.75M, and so not a hindrance whatsoever to signing Tkachuk to an 8.5M AAV deal.

6.75
6.75
6.75
9.55
9.55
9.55
9.55
9.55

8yrs/8.5M AAV, without a single year being paid higher than Giordano.
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Old 08-27-2019, 08:47 AM   #860
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Tkachuk isn't taking less in the first few years of his contract. He will take more. Its the new trend in Professional athlete contracts and according to some agents its one of the most important things in negotiations. Need that money early to get working for you. This is relatively new, even since the Gaudreau and Monahan contracts.
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