Closing the Book on 2017-18

[Bingo]

Natural Stat Trick added some breakdown data to their team section today that, if the data is to be trusted, will finally bring some conclusion to what happened last season (not to mention going forward)

Basically they added more detail to their tables including medium and low danger splits as well as shot spits for high, medium and danger.

It allows you to dig into the teams much deeper beyond simple shot attempts as you can dice them by danger level, but also ignore shot attempts altogether if you wish and go into shots

Were the Flames a perimeter team with good shot metrics last season?

Ranks

Shot Attempts
CF% 3rd

Shot attempts broken into difficulty

High 2nd
Medium 7th
Low 4th

Pretty consistent across all three types

Shots on Goal
SF% 4th

High 4th
Medium 11th
Low 12th

Good sign as they were ranked higher in frequency for out shooting their opponents in high danger situations

All in all ... a team with bad finishers and or bad luck, but they were out playing the opposition.

This season?

Shot Attempts
CF% 5th

Shot attempts broken into difficulty

High 13th
Medium 3rd
Low 7th

Shots on Goal
SF% 10th

High 15th
Medium 5th
Low 10th

This year splits not quite as dangerous, but still a positive as the medium group is strong.

[Textcritic]

A cursory look at these numbers combined with my recollection of watching games last season aligns with something that I have always thought: The Flames were doing everything right last year EXCEPT for when it come to actually releasing the puck. Their positioning was good, and they had a lot of possession, but with the pressures set on them—in part by internal and external expectations; in part by passive anxiety that the coaching staff was never able to cut through—or perhaps even exacerbated—we saw shooting percentages plummet across the board. Players looking to finely for the perfect shot and holding on to the puck too long.

In my mind, this was a coaching issue, but less so in terms of systems or style (although, the team was definitely not playing fast enough last year), and more so for how the coaches and players interacted and responded to one another. I think Peters and his bench has them more loose, comfortable, confident, and he is also making better bench and in-game decisions that are also contributing significantly to the players's confidence.

[Makarov]

Certainly interesting. However, still doesn't explain why a team that was consistently in the top three or four in terms of generating high danger shots and chances finished in the bottom three for actually scoring. Quite puzzling.

[ResAlien]

I agree they were visually better than the results indicated. Thank god last year is over and we’ve moved on. Peters so far seems like a decent coach/motivator and the complete reshuffle of the lineup appears positive as well.

[belsarius]

I think this still passes with the eye test. Last year's Flames got a lot of rubber on net from a variety of places, and not just low danger shots.

I think the data still doesn't reconcile the difference between high danger and a high danger quality shot. The Flames were effective at getting into the home base to take a shot, but, as been stated by others, it doesn't show how ineffective they were at getting opposing goalies to move laterally. In the first 5 games this season I feel that they have been much better at getting pucks across the Royal Road and the goals have come from it.

Do they show the data broken down into success rates for the high/medium/low split? I would be interested in seeing how good the Flames were at converting those high danger compared the the league, as well as overall. If they scored below the average in all splits I can see more of a luck/shooting issue, but if they were average in the low/medium but below average in high then I can see it as a shot selection/quality issue instead of luck.

[nik-]

Lesson learned. Don't play for corsi.

[Bingo]

Shooting wide at a league all time pace didn't help them either.

[Ryan Coke]

I think it highlights that we still have a ways to go to refine the data. While they may be divided into high, medium, and low danger shots, it’s evident that how they are categorized is not yet reliable.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by nik-

Lesson learned. Don't play for corsi.

I thought it was don't play WITH Corsi.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Makarov

Certainly interesting. However, still doesn't explain why a team that was consistently in the top three or four in terms of generating high danger shots and chances finished in the bottom three for actually scoring. Quite puzzling.

It probably has to do somewhat with why the GM brought in a bunch of forwards this year.

Generating chances with Backlund/Frolik/Jankowski/Hathaway is not the same as generating chances with Lindholm/Neal/czarnik/ryan.

The Flames have scored 18 goals this year. 7 of those goals have come from players who weren't on the roster last year.

[Willi Plett]

Maybe it’s in the definitions. I haven’t seen data on high danger chances and specifically blended with other types and the direct correlation to goals and wins.

Maybe, with the fact that goalies are overall larger more positional in play and stopping more high danger chances, a blend is more important.

Screens deflections etc on any danger chances and keeping the other team guessing may be just as important.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

It probably has to do somewhat with why the GM brought in a bunch of forwards this year.

Generating chances with Backlund/Frolik/Jankowski/Hathaway is not the same as generating chances with Lindholm/Neal/czarnik/ryan.

The Flames have scored 18 goals this year. 7 of those goals have come from players who weren't on the roster last year.

That's a good point, and it suggests finish for sure

[squiggs96]

Finally.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

It probably has to do somewhat with why the GM brought in a bunch of forwards this year.

Generating chances with Backlund/Frolik/Jankowski/Hathaway is not the same as generating chances with Lindholm/Neal/czarnik/ryan.

The Flames have scored 18 goals this year. 7 of those goals have come from players who weren't on the roster last year.

Treliving specifically cited scoring as a concern at the beginning and end of last year. So he gets rid of, through trade, buyout, retirement and demotion: Hathaway, Lazar, Brouwer, Stajan, Versteeg and Ferland (who is off to a hot start but you could understand if Treliving thought the first half of last season was not indicative). He brings in Neal, Lindholm, Czarnik, Ryan and Dube. You could argue that Versteeg = Ryan although Ryan has more upside and Dube and Czarnik definitely have more potential than Stajan and Hathaway. Neal is an upgrade on Brouwer, hopefully.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Maybe this is a laughable point but the data is showing where CGY is generating chances on the ice but what about the opponent?

I was watching the COL game again and I was so pleased to see guys like Andersson, Hanifin and Valimaki in on the cycle, skating around behind their net, all these rotations that pull COL out of their structure and open seams for guys to get shots off.

I don’t recall that last year. In fact last year I remember a lot of chip ins, retrieval and wrist shots from the point, perhaps with secondary chances from in close off that but with the opponents still in their defensive structure. Maybe it’s bias and I’m just not remembering clearly.

To me this year the offense is much more dynamic and the opponents have to defend that differently. Those stats perhaps are capturing the full story of what’s happening on the ice.

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by Makarov

Certainly interesting. However, still doesn't explain why a team that was consistently in the top three or four in terms of generating high danger shots and chances finished in the bottom three for actually scoring. Quite puzzling.

Stats don't usually explain, though.

[Monahan For Mayor]

The stats sure don't match the eye test. I stopped watching out of boredom around game 60. When I was watching we didn't look very dangerous most nights.

[Firebot]

Gulutzan plays solely to get high Corsi, and the expected result was to win games from that. The Flames under Gulutzan had great possession numbers, the problem is the chances generated were quite low chance shots with teams able to prepare for a very predictable Flames offense. I can bet you that by the end of the year the number of blocked shots against with Peters should be lower than under Gulutzan.

Peters so far, while he does obviously play a possession game, also strives for quick turnovers and activates Defense a lot to get an advantage. How many times have you see a D to D pass to start a rush with Peters? You never see it unless it's to get out of danger. Under Gulutzan you would always see a D to D pass, and all 5 man moving as a unit. It made the Flames get great Corsi, but be a so called 'unlucky' team.

The Flames last year were one of the most boring teams I have ever seen, and the worst part is they were a boring losing team. Each missed assignment would turn into a 2 on 1 or poor defensive coverage, all of a sudden it's 4-1 despite the Flames playing 'good hockey' and outshooting their opponent by 10 shots.

That's why advanced stats are pure garbage. Good Corsi is a result of playing good hockey, it is not the reason.

[Flash Walken]

Gulutzan tried to get the team to win as many 50/50 pucks as possible and to try to get as many shots as possible to negate the low shooting percentages of the bulk of his roster.

He was under no delusions as to the state of the talent on the roster, something that should now be abundantly clear to fans on this board.

The fact that Dougie was seeming an issue as well requiring an inordinate amount of managing should also give the fanbae pause. Interesting speculation from dobber about another coach seemingly conducting the same management:

Dougie Hamilton is seeing 2:11 of PP ice time per game, his lowest in four years. His overall ice time is down nearly two minutes from last year with Calgary. Meanwhile, Justin Faulk – he of just seven power play goals in his last 180-odd games – is actually seeing his PP time going up! The only logic for this is that it’s a statement. Why did Calgary want to move Hamilton? And is Carolina (Rod Brind’Amour) trying to stamp out that reason with some tough love?

Anyway, glad GG is gone too, but let's be honest here and give Treliving some credit. The team was awful last year and in one off-season he improved the team immensely. More than I thought was possible in a single off-season

There is certainly an entertainment value improvement under Peters but if he had the roster GG had last year it would've been boring too. It's really difficult, nearly impossible, to turn a very low skill roster into an exciting roster. You can make a high skilled team boring with coaching but I don't think it really works the other way, especially if you are trying to make the playoffs which was the mandate GG was under.

[Pipty]

Perhaps high danger shot location is just a small equation of actual scoring. Such as including the shot taker abilities and the setup before taking the shot to move the goalie out of position.