Duhatschek runs a mock expansion draft...bye bye Bennett?

[transplant99]

Good stuff here with the disclaimer that so much can and will change long before this thing takes place.

You need to subscribe to read the whole thing (by far the best value out there for content vs cost) but well worth it.

He has the club protecting: (compiled by Cruikshank)

Gaudreau, Lindholm, Monahan, Backlund, Tkachuk, Mangiapane, Dube

Andersson, Hanifin, Giordano

Rittich

Valimaki is exempt in this scenario

Leaving

Bennett, Brodie, Hamonic, Kylington

Here is his reasoning:

Calgary has a couple of interesting scenarios to ponder, beginning with Valimaki who, according to GM Brad Treliving, will be exempt from the expansion draft if he doesn’t participate in the 24-team play in/playoff round because he missed the entire season as a result of an injury. Treliving stressed that is his current understanding, though things could change. Assuming Valimaki is exempt, the Flames could protect Giordano, the reigning Norris Trophy winner, but at age 36, probably of limited interest to Seattle. Alternately, they could give that third defensive protected spot to either Brodie or Hamonic, if either one re-signs with the team (both are pending UFAs). More likely, no matter what happens there, Seattle’s decision will come down to either Kylington, a young, skilled (but high-risk) puck mover, or Bennett, who would appear to be the odd man out up front, given how Mangiapane and Dube are trending upward.

The pick: Sam Bennett.

https://theathletic.com/1899817/2020...ike-next-year/

[Vinny01]

I don’t think Bennett plays for the Flames by the time the expansion draft occurs but I can’t disagree with the protected list.

[Crown Royal]

As things stand now, this makes complete sense.

Another unmentioned possibility is Derek Ryan in a Deryk Engelland type situation. Vet player, Washington State kid, potential first captain of the franchise.

[Geeoff]

I would think Kylington had a little more value than Bennett?

[Poe969]

Maybe it's just me but I would expose Backlund and Gio.

[transplant99]

I just realized there is zero mention of Lucic....either protected or exposed.

Weird omission.

Not that Seattle would claim him anyhow, but he could have to be protected (NMC) which would expose one of Dube or Backlund Im guessing.

[BigErnSalute_16]

Originally Posted by transplant99

I just realized there is zero mention of Lucic....either protected or exposed.

Weird omission.

Not that Seattle would claim him anyhow, but he could have to be protected (NMC) which would expose one of Dube or Backlund Im guessing.

IMO there is almost a 0 per cent chance that Lucic doesn't waive it. People should stop even bringing it up. What possible reason would there be for him to not waive? He's smart enough to know that there is no way he gets picked by Seattle and him not waiving would only hurt his teams competitiveness.

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by transplant99

I just realized there is zero mention of Lucic....either protected or exposed.

Weird omission.

Not that Seattle would claim him anyhow, but he could have to be protected (NMC) which would expose one of Dube or Backlund Im guessing.

Lucic will waive for the expansion draft, Treliving has confirmed as much without actually saying it. When asked about Lucic and the expansion draft shortly after the trade, he said something to the effect of it not being a concern and that discussions between he and the player were private. My impression is the Flames agreed to honor the NMC if he agreed to waive it for the Expansion draft.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by BigErnSalute_16

IMO there is almost a 0 per cent chance that Lucic doesn't waive it. People should stop even bringing it up. What possible reason would there be for him to not waive? He's smart enough to know that there is no way he gets picked by Seattle and him not waiving would only hurt his teams competitiveness.

Plus he seems like a stand out person and teammate. Can’t see him claiming that protection spot. He knows he is over paid.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by Poe969

Maybe it's just me but I would expose Backlund and Gio.

If Flames re-sign Brodie or grab another legit top 4 dman in free agency , my guess is their contract would come with a NMC. If thats the case then Gio would be the guy to expose.

As for Backlund that would probably come down to if Lucic needs to be protected. I certainly see both reasons for wanting to protect Backlund and not to preotect him. If left umprotected, could be a great way to free up cap space. Yes i think Seattle would take him if available. The reason to protect him, is that Flames as of now ,don't have a huge surplus of centermen ready to take over that 2b/3a spot.

Fun exercise , but the team, and a lot of other teams, will look a lot different come expansion with the cap being stagnat for the next 2 years.

[Poe969]

Also, if there are actually compliance buyouts available, lists will change dramatically. As for Gio and Backlund, both guys are already on the decline IMO and will be seen as over paid by that time. As much as they're loved and respected, losing one of those guys wouldn't be all that bad.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Poe969

Maybe it's just me but I would expose Backlund and Gio.

I have been a big Bennett supporter over the last 6 years but he currently is not worth protecting over Gio or Backlund. With Gio I feel he would absolutely be claimed and if Kylington takes a big step in the next year Gio certainly should be the guy they expose.

With only a year left on his deal Gio comes in as the first captain of Seattle and if they do not have the same luck as Vegas and play like an actual expansion team then Gio is a big trade chip for them at the deadline.

This makes it easy for the Flames to give the C to Tkachuk and hopefully there would be an agreement for Gio to return on a 1-2 year deal the following season.

With 4 years left on Backlund’s deal and a flat cap for 2-3 years it is not looking like that deal will age well. Having said that once he got back to playing center this year and really took off late in the season he really showed his value to the team. Lindholm can likely replace the shutdown center role if need be but losing Backlund for nothing would hurt this team.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by Poe969

Also, if there are actually compliance buyouts available, lists will change dramatically. As for Gio and Backlund, both guys are already on the decline IMO and will be seen as over paid by that time. As much as they're loved and respected, losing one of those guys wouldn't be all that bad.

They are saying there will be no compliance buyouts with this new CBA

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Poe969

Also, if there are actually compliance buyouts available, lists will change dramatically. As for Gio and Backlund, both guys are already on the decline IMO and will be seen as over paid by that time. As much as they're loved and respected, losing one of those guys wouldn't be all that bad.

Gio is a franchise Dman and while he likely is never as good as he was in 2019 he is still miles better than any Dman on the roster.

Remember when Gio signed his contract and people thought it would be an overpayment by year 3? Year 4 of the deal is almost complete and it has been an absolute steal the entire time.

You are understating the importance of both Gio and Backlund. Your logic makes sense protecting a 38 year old and 32 year old over younger players doesn’t make a ton of sense. I personally hope the Flames have no choice but to expose Gio because that means Kylington has taken a big step.

[Geeoff]

Originally Posted by BigErnSalute_16

IMO there is almost a 0 per cent chance that Lucic doesn't waive it. People should stop even bringing it up. What possible reason would there be for him to not waive? He's smart enough to know that there is no way he gets picked by Seattle and him not waiving would only hurt his teams competitiveness.

IIRC there were a few players in similar situations that refused to waive for Vegas, such as Dion Phaneuf and Kevin Bieksa. Bieksa in particular really ####ed the Ducks because they ended up having to give up Shea Theodore to Vegas in order to protect their D.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Geeoff

IIRC there were a few players in similar situations that refused to waive for Vegas, such as Dion Phaneuf and Kevin Bieksa. Bieksa in particular really ####ed the Ducks because they ended up having to give up Shea Theodore to Vegas in order to protect their D.

Yeah but those two are Grade A #######s.

[Geeoff]

If Lucic waives for the expansion draft and the Flames get a 3rd round pick, I'm willing to move my thumb towards up on the Lucic trade

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Geeoff

IIRC there were a few players in similar situations that refused to waive for Vegas, such as Dion Phaneuf and Kevin Bieksa. Bieksa in particular really ####ed the Ducks because they ended up having to give up Shea Theodore to Vegas in order to protect their D.

Every indication since the trade has been that this won’t be a problem and there is some mutual understanding from both sides that Lucic will allow himself to be exposed

[Monahammer]

^ My thumb has been locked in an up position for quite a while now. Neal was a net negative on this team by a large amount.

I can't justify keeping Bennett at all. The player is just not worthy of his current contract, and I see no reasonable way for him to break into our top 6. He doesn't have the discipline to be a third line centre.

[Hoop27]

Thinking of it from a Seattle perspective Bennett is the kind of guy I wouldn't mind taking anyways.

Definitely can play in the top 9 and if he is running around hitting everything that moves etc. I could see him being a early fan favorite and young enough to help lay a foundation there.