Stocks - The Best Buys 2

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Table 5

Assuming this is the thread for this, but word is that Charlie Munger of Berkshire Hathaway passed away today. 99 years old, and quite the run.

Yeah, I loved Charlie and maybe liked him more than I like Buffett (which is a lot!). RIP to a legend.

[Fuzz]

Sell!

[Delthefunky]

What a run.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Ai! Ai! Ai!

[bluejays]

Interesting bump

[burn_this_city]

Is the Nvidia founder the Miles Dyson of our timeline?

[activeStick]

Amazing day for Nvidia and Huang.

[nik-]

What's the over/under on NVidia tomorrow morning? +80?

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by nik-

What's the over/under on NVidia tomorrow morning? +80?

Way over.

Surely they will run out of incremental buyers at some point???

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

Way over.

Surely they will run out of incremental buyers at some point???

This is still, I think, a cyclical business. It's just right now a huge secular growth spurt is underlying that. But once your market cap is at a few trillion, if you hit a cyclical decline and the market decides its worth a cyclical multiple look out below. But I have no idea when or at what point that happens - so it could be the market cap drops from $5T to $3T in 2026...

[GGG]

Its current PE ratio is about 65 and going up but that is still down from peak last year which was over 200.

So it is delivering on the growth profile required to justify its valuation. Now at some point that will stop and it will return to lower valuations.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by GGG

Its current PE ratio is about 65 and going up but that is still down from peak last year which was over 200.

So it is delivering on the growth profile required to justify its valuation. Now at some point that will stop and it will return to lower valuations.

Yep. Right now they're growing fast enough to justify their valuation.

The problem is they can't grow at that pace forever, because they'd become 100% of the world economy. And while AI chips are cool, people are probably going to want food and shelter too.

But predicting when that growth plateaus or even reverses is very difficult. Semis have a history of being a cyclical industry, and it seems likely to me that this boom period will with buyers having more inventory than they need, so a de-stocking period will likely occur.

If they have revenue declines and the market re-rates their multiple because of it the losses will be huge. But there's no evidence at all of that happening soon (except maybe timelines to get product coming down) so if they keep growing at this pace for another few years the returns in that time period could be massive.

[Sr. Mints]

Pretty off topic: Has anyone here seen the movie Dumb Money? It's a Hollywood portrayal of the Gamestop/WallStreetBets chaos.

While the movie was entertaining, my main gripe is its lack of depth. In comparison to the film The Big Short, which offered a critical examination of the financial system and provided valuable insights, Dumb Money feels superficial. It touches on the notion of a rigged system and the struggles of the average person to succeed, but it does so in a vague and somewhat cautious manner.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Sr. Mints

Pretty off topic: Has anyone here seen the movie Dumb Money? It's a Hollywood portrayal of the Gamestop/WallStreetBets chaos.

While the movie was entertaining, my main gripe is its lack of depth. In comparison to the film The Big Short, which offered a critical examination of the financial system and provided valuable insights, Dumb Money feels superficial. It touches on the notion of a rigged system and the struggles of the average person to succeed, but it does so in a vague and somewhat cautious manner.

I watched it and I thought it was “ok”. Just not as good as I was expecting and you’re probably right in saying it had a lack of depth.

[Table 5]

Seems like the Magnificent 7 field is getting narrower by the week...first Tesla sputtered, then Apple...and seems like it's kinda down to Meta and Nvidia now. I wouldn't be surprised if these stocks keep propping everything else up for longer than we think (especially in an election year?), but when things drop, I doubt it will be graceful.

[Faust]

Originally Posted by Sr. Mints

Pretty off topic: Has anyone here seen the movie Dumb Money? It's a Hollywood portrayal of the Gamestop/WallStreetBets chaos.

While the movie was entertaining, my main gripe is its lack of depth. In comparison to the film The Big Short, which offered a critical examination of the financial system and provided valuable insights, Dumb Money feels superficial. It touches on the notion of a rigged system and the struggles of the average person to succeed, but it does so in a vague and somewhat cautious manner.

I did not watch Dumb Money; however, I did watch the Two Part series called ‘Gaming Wall Street’ and enjoyed it.

Stream It Or Skip It: ‘Gaming Wall Street’ on HBO Max, A Look At The Parties Involved In The 2021 GameStop Short Squeeze

https://decider.com/2022/03/04/strea...short-squeeze/

[Mean Mr. Mustard]

What would some relatively safe ETFs be right now to invest some capital. It seems like much of the recent run has been on the backs of a select few companies and if those start to struggle will the entire market start to show signs of stagnation?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Mean Mr. Mustard

What would some relatively safe ETFs be right now to invest some capital. It seems like much of the recent run has been on the backs of a select few companies and if those start to struggle will the entire market start to show signs of stagnation?

What does relatively safe mean?

Is your goal to out perform the market? Or do you want market performance?

[Mean Mr. Mustard]

I'm mostly looking for market performance as I'm looking at 20-25 years for returns.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Yep. Right now they're growing fast enough to justify their valuation.

The problem is they can't grow at that pace forever, because they'd become 100% of the world economy. And while AI chips are cool, people are probably going to want food and shelter too.

But predicting when that growth plateaus or even reverses is very difficult. Semis have a history of being a cyclical industry, and it seems likely to me that this boom period will with buyers having more inventory than they need, so a de-stocking period will likely occur.

If they have revenue declines and the market re-rates their multiple because of it the losses will be huge. But there's no evidence at all of that happening soon (except maybe timelines to get product coming down) so if they keep growing at this pace for another few years the returns in that time period could be massive.

Momma's lump sum buy from maybe 2 years ago is up about 500%. I say sell, she will definitely hold. Lol