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Old 07-05-2017, 01:01 PM   #1
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Default Important: Re-rates, Grids and Next steps.

Hey folks
Here is an update on some important next steps.

RE-RATES
We have completed re-rates and the grids for the 2017/2018 season.

We have used a ratings package that is similar, but not exactly the same as package that we used last year (which doesn't seem to be available this year) - again this is a package that is heavily weighted towards the most recent year.

Please do not compare ratings year over year though, it is irrelevant because the overall ratings package shifts year to year and based on sim settings (more on that below). The key is the relative positioning of each player to each other.

Just as we did last year, we didn't make any adjustments to these ratings - we are going with the off the shelf to eliminate any subjectivity. There may be some players that are off but that is better than the slippery slope of trying to adjust players based on "gut".

The ratings can be seen here:
http://cphl.calgarypuck.com/pages/si...L_Rerates.xlsx

CHANGES TO SIM ENGINE

We are not making any large changes to the sim. As a reminder, in recent years we did some things to reduce randomness
- Turning off the coaches
- Turning off momentum
- Moving back to the 1.5 engine
- Use the sim settings as recommended by the ratings provider (this is why the OVR may have shifted year over year)

So the ONLY change I've made this year is to increase the fatigue level for goalies. Goalies will now lose 1 CON if they face 25 shots, 2 if they face 35 and 3 if they face 40. This should hopefully force teams to use their back up more regularly as last season back-ups were essentially non factors.

GRIDS
- In the ratings package, you'll notice that there are UFA and RFA grid numbers of each player. These are the grids for this off-season. If a player is signed for this upcoming season - you don't need to worry about it. If a player is a free agent and 29 or over - use the UFA grids. 28 and under - the RFA grids.
- Overall these grids are not too different from what we used last year.
- As always, if you re-sign UFAs they are 1 way deals. RFAs are 2 way deals
- You MUST have enough cap space to re-sign your UFAs, but you don't need cap space to re-sign your RFAs

Again, please do not cherry pick individual players or individual attributes to criticize the package. There will be some off ones for sure, but overall they look pretty good.

You'll also see where the re-call waiver cut off point is for forward, D and G. As a reminder this means that all players need to be in the CPHL are 24 years or older AND have that rating or above, otherwise they will be subject to re-call waivers. These players will need to be recalled prior to UFA re-signing periods. Date to be communicated.

NEXT STEPS:
- Check out the ratings and let us know if you have any questions
- Submit your RFAs by Friday July 14 11:59 PM Calgary time
- This should be done by emailing cphltrade the following (send it all in one email, not an email for each player)
- The name of the player be signed, OVR, number of years you are signing them to, and the corresponding grid amount.
- A list of players you are NOT re-signing
- Please include any ECHLers that you want to sign, including any with 0 years left.

After RFA re-signing we will have UFA re-signing and then UFA bidding.

There is a lot in this post, so please read carefully and ask questions. No question is dumb. If you are confused, chances are someone else is.

This also means the trade freeze is off.
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Old 07-05-2017, 01:20 PM   #2
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It looks like playoffs are now impacting ratings when before we limited it to just the regular season. Goalie ranking sticks out like a sore thumb to me.

Can you please clarify what impacted these ratings and confirm there is no opportunity this year to comment?
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Old 07-05-2017, 01:24 PM   #3
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It looks like playoffs are now impacting ratings when before we limited it to just the regular season. Goalie ranking sticks out like a sore thumb to me.

Can you please clarify what impacted these ratings and confirm there is no opportunity this year to comment?
Playoffs didn't impact ratings.
What are you concerns with the goalie rankings?
You can comment on the ratings, but we will not be making any adjustments.
These are 100% statistically done to remove subjectivity. We don't want to reintroduce that subjectivity by allowing any sort of manual adjustments.
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Old 07-05-2017, 01:53 PM   #4
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If a player isn't on there but is on my CPHL roster what is their rating?
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Old 07-05-2017, 01:56 PM   #5
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All players who played in at least 10 NHL or AHL games are created, so if you have someone that doesn't apply to - but plan on using, they would receive ratings of 50s across the board.
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Old 07-05-2017, 02:30 PM   #6
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Quote:
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All players who played in at least 10 NHL or AHL games are created, so if you have someone that doesn't apply to - but plan on using, they would receive ratings of 50s across the board.
Is that limited to last seasons games played? Mattias Janmark was out all last season but played 70 some games in 15-16. he's currently not rated.
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Old 07-05-2017, 02:34 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild GM View Post
Playoffs didn't impact ratings.
What are you concerns with the goalie rankings?
You can comment on the ratings, but we will not be making any adjustments.
These are 100% statistically done to remove subjectivity. We don't want to reintroduce that subjectivity by allowing any sort of manual adjustments.
If we are only looking at regular season, goalies rankings are off after the "Top 7" IMO. Guys like Gibson and C. Anderson too high, guys like Murray and Jones too low.

Just seeking clarification because in previous year we could comment and changes were made.
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Old 07-05-2017, 02:40 PM   #8
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Ha, they've got Quick listed as the 36th best goalie. Saves me a ton on his UFA deal I guess.
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Old 07-05-2017, 02:44 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by TurdFerguson View Post
Is that limited to last seasons games played? Mattias Janmark was out all last season but played 70 some games in 15-16. he's currently not rated.
Yes.
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Old 07-05-2017, 02:53 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MJK View Post
If we are only looking at regular season, goalies rankings are off after the "Top 7" IMO. Guys like Gibson and C. Anderson too high, guys like Murray and Jones too low.

Just seeking clarification because in previous year we could comment and changes were made.
We ended making manual changes a couple seasons ago and decided to go with ratings packages as is to remove the human element, which is a sliperry slope.

But to your specific points
Gibson/Anderson had better GAA than Murray and Jones
Jones had a better SVP but the rest were all in the same area.

But this package consider other stats and attributes to arrive at ratings including
- ESSP%
- Games Played
- Height/Weight
- SHSP%
- PS%

And others.

It is all stats based which is why we go with it over the personal feelings that each of us have about players.
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Old 07-05-2017, 02:57 PM   #11
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All my 2nd/3rd liners turned into fourth liners and 2nd/3rd pairing dmen into 7/8 guys, yikes.
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Old 07-05-2017, 03:42 PM   #12
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Ha, they've got Quick listed as the 36th best goalie. Saves me a ton on his UFA deal I guess.
I just would like to say Peter "the MVP" Budaj is #13 and a 78 ov I hope im not the only person to see that and keel over laughing

Mike Fisher is 33rd at 76 ov

Last edited by Completely; 07-05-2017 at 04:06 PM.
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Old 07-05-2017, 03:51 PM   #13
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Everything looks okay... goalies seem totally messed.

Schneider is 28th... so barely an NHL starter now. I get he had an off year but Budaj, Mason, Greiss, Miller, Lehner all ahead of him? Interesting.
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Old 07-05-2017, 03:55 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by Swayze11 View Post
Everything looks okay... goalies seem totally messed.

Schneider is 28th... so barely an NHL starter now. I get he had an off year but Budaj, Mason, Greiss, Miller, Lehner all ahead of him? Interesting.
Well he did have a bad year and with the ratings highly skewed towards last season performance, it is what you get.
The funny thing is that a lower rating isn't a bad thing if the contract is due. As a UFA you can now lock in Schneider at a grid rate that holds a lot less risk.
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Old 07-05-2017, 04:05 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild GM View Post
Well he did have a bad year and with the ratings highly skewed towards last season performance, it is what you get.
The funny thing is that a lower rating isn't a bad thing if the contract is due. As a UFA you can now lock in Schneider at a grid rate that holds a lot less risk.
Yea for sure... I mean I will be locking him up for 3 years at 5.25 which I certainly can't complain about. I just hope it doesn't mean I will be allowing 6 goals a game.

I suppose we will see and I could flip him pretty easily.
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Old 07-05-2017, 05:00 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild GM View Post
We ended making manual changes a couple seasons ago and decided to go with ratings packages as is to remove the human element, which is a sliperry slope.

But to your specific points
Gibson/Anderson had better GAA than Murray and Jones
Jones had a better SVP but the rest were all in the same area.

But this package consider other stats and attributes to arrive at ratings including
- ESSP%
- Games Played
- Height/Weight
- SHSP%
- PS%

And others.

It is all stats based which is why we go with it over the personal feelings that each of us have about players.
I wasn't comparing those goalies together, I am saying they look out of place based on where they are ranked and what goalies are around them.

Let's pick on Craig Anderson, with limited games played I just don't see why he is ranked so high.

Last edited by MJK; 07-05-2017 at 05:03 PM.
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Old 07-05-2017, 05:22 PM   #17
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I'm not interested in debating individual players. Kenny Agostino has a playable rating despite not being an NHLer. You can find a number of odd ones. But overall does it look good? In my opinion yes
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Old 07-05-2017, 05:31 PM   #18
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Are you taking to me? If so, IMO yes, except goalies. I think I have made that clear. But no one else seems to mind so I guess it's all good.

Edit. Everyone except me and Patrick. Sorry just seeing his posts now.

Last edited by MJK; 07-05-2017 at 05:37 PM.
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Old 07-05-2017, 05:52 PM   #19
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Quote:
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Are you taking to me? If so, IMO yes, except goalies. I think I have made that clear. But no one else seems to mind so I guess it's all good.

Edit. Everyone except me and Patrick. Sorry just seeing his posts now.
i definitely think there are some mishaps, however. to generate a list of like what 900 players based off last season alone is a task, each player has like 10 different stats as well, 9000 different stats to put in. there is going to be some that are questionable. Asking for a perfect solution is impossible. i posted the ones i really disliked. But they felt like this package was good overall. they're running this and i definitely trust their decision making at this point.
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Old 07-05-2017, 06:05 PM   #20
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Rating are pretty much inline with the advanced stats based models used by the Stars organization.

Sounds like some organizations are still using the ol' eyes on approach.
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