[News] The Athletic comes out with their probability chart.

[Enoch Root]

Flames with the 4th best chance of winning the cup there. And the highest in the division.

Or, to put it in much better terms, the Flames have twice the chance of winning the cup as the Oilers have of making the playoffs!

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

Looks like these probabilities are based on current standings only. Not sure I understand the rationale or value of these predictions.

I would imagine there is an explanation included somewhere to explain the breakdown of the numbers. Based on how they shift the further right on the chart you go I assume it has to do with combinations of schedule strength, home/road records, and some form of Corsi.

[Arsenal14]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I would imagine there is an explanation included somewhere to explain the breakdown of the numbers. Based on how they shift the further right on the chart you go I assume it has to do with combinations of schedule strength, home/road records, and some form of Corsi.

From the page that the chart came from:

The projections are based on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, which factors in each team's projected strength, current health, and their strength of schedule (which includes opponent strength, venue and rest)

The current health aspect is why the Blackhawks have quite low odds right now with the news that Crawford may be out for the season. Not sure why the Flames Cup odds are so much better than San Jose - maybe we match up better with the Eastern teams for some reason.

[Textcritic]

Based on the chart, the projected West finish would be as follows:

CENT #1 Nashville — 106 pts
CENT #2 Winnipeg — 102 pts
CENT #3 Dallas — 97 pts

PAC #1 VGK — 106 pts
PAC #2 Calgary — 98 pts
PAC #3 SJ — 98 pts

WC #1 St Louis — 97 pts
WC #2 LA —96 pts

This would set the Blackhawks, Ducks, and (lol) Oilers out of the playoffs, and would give the Flames a home matchup in Round #1 with the Sharks. That looks just about perfect to me.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Arsenal14

From the page that the chart came from:


The current health aspect is why the Blackhawks have quite low odds right now with the news that Crawford may be out for the season. Not sure why the Flames Cup odds are so much better than San Jose - maybe we match up better with the Eastern teams for some reason.

Have you watched the Sharks? The Flames have better odds because the Sharks are just not a great team which is being propped up by some suspicious good fortune. For all the complaints of some fans about the Flames' inability to close out in regulation, the Sharks have already played +60 min games 12 times this season. Hell, they just yesterday needed a shootout to beat the worst team in the league.