Matthew Tkachuk contract negotiations

[Iggy Snipe]

6x6.75

or 8x7

His AAV wont be higher than 7 million. The kid can barley skate. He looks like bambi on skates. For a guy who draws penalties, and plays well below the goal line with a nice set of hands, this is the max. He is not an elite level skater or shooter, therefore is not a game breaker.
He will not have a better statistical year in my opinion than this year.

If they pay him more than that, then its a bad deal and we should trade him as his value is high right now, probably its highest it will ever be.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Iggy Snipe

His AAV wont be higher than 7 million. The kid can barley skate. He looks like bambi on skates. For a guy who draws penalties, and plays well below the goal line with a nice set of hands, this is the max. He is not an elite level skater or shooter, therefore is not a game breaker.

Thank you for a realistic description of Tkachuk.

I really really like the player. He is really good at what he’s good at.

But everything you wrote is true.

[TheScorpion]

Welcome to "On Whose Line Should Tkachuk Play Anyway?," where the players peak at 21 and the points don't matter.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

You'd have to look at it. The alternative is a Nylander situation. Holdout followed by stupid contract, followed by under-performance.

This.

Missing the start of training camp will be an epic failure by both sides.

[devo22]

FWIW, Matt Cane predicts 6 years and almost 8m/year.

1 yr $6,331,375 - 1.8%
2 yrs $5,466,670 - 4.0%
3 yrs $7,099,516 - 1.8%
4 yrs $7,357,256 - 2.0%
5 yrs $8,083,950 - 13.8%
6 yrs $7,980,355 - 38.0%
7 yrs $8,031,774 - 16.2%
8 yrs $9,600,960 - 22.4%

https://twitter.com/user/status/1125201678746226690

[Poe969]

He's good it I dont think he's worth 8. I think 7 is a lot too, around 6.5 is fair imo but I'm guessing itll be much more.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by devo22

FWIW, Matt Cane predicts 6 years and almost 8m/year.

1 yr $6,331,375 - 1.8%
2 yrs $5,466,670 - 4.0%
3 yrs $7,099,516 - 1.8%
4 yrs $7,357,256 - 2.0%
5 yrs $8,083,950 - 13.8%
6 yrs $7,980,355 - 38.0%
7 yrs $8,031,774 - 16.2%
8 yrs $9,600,960 - 22.4%

https://twitter.com/user/status/1125201678746226690

$8 million seems a little high for six years. That's closer to the money I would expect him to get for eight years.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

$8 million seems a little high for six years. That's closer to the money I would expect him to get for eight years.

I think we all forget how much the salary cap goes up every year, which pushes up new contracts.

Although I would agree with you.

[Strange Brew]

Our GM has said many times that the regular season is where you earn your money and the playoffs are where you earn your legacy. I’m sure Tkachuk’s agent is happy to agree.

[Fire]

$8 million/yr for 6 seems fair to me, because unfortunately the idiots in Toronto have inflated the RFA contracts.

[delayedreflex]

Originally Posted by devo22

FWIW, Matt Cane predicts 6 years and almost 8m/year.

1 yr $6,331,375 - 1.8%
2 yrs $5,466,670 - 4.0%
3 yrs $7,099,516 - 1.8%
4 yrs $7,357,256 - 2.0%
5 yrs $8,083,950 - 13.8%
6 yrs $7,980,355 - 38.0%
7 yrs $8,031,774 - 16.2%
8 yrs $9,600,960 - 22.4%

https://twitter.com/user/status/1125201678746226690

Curious how his algorithm works - this projection basically shows zero premium paid for more years between 5-7 years, then a big jump for an 8 year contract. That seems to be the case for most of the RFA players on his list for some reason - if I were to guess, it does seem like it's generally franchise players that sign 8-year deals as an RFA so perhaps that inflates things. Or maybe it's that Matthews signing a monster 5-year contract has kind of thrown the 5-year value out of whack.

[ForeverFlameFan]

I think Matthew will sign a 7x7.

[oldschoolcalgary]

7.5 AAV would be 9% of the cap, which is what Gaudreau signed for.

to me, that's the number that seems fair... it might be a little higher than that, but it shouldn't be... i see a 6x7.5

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

7.5 AAV would be 9% of the cap, which is what Gaudreau signed for.

to me, that's the number that seems fair... it might be a little higher than that, but it shouldn't be... i see a 6x7.5

Why would Tkachuk expect to sign for more/equal cap percentage as Gaudreau? Honest question.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by delayedreflex

Curious how his algorithm works - this projection basically shows zero premium paid for more years between 5-7 years, then a big jump for an 8 year contract. That seems to be the case for most of the RFA players on his list for some reason - if I were to guess, it does seem like it's generally franchise players that sign 8-year deals as an RFA so perhaps that inflates things. Or maybe it's that Matthews signing a monster 5-year contract has kind of thrown the 5-year value out of whack.

You are correct. It doesn't seem to take into account the UFA years given up and the fact that players who give up a number of UFA years are delaying their UFA until a time which isn't advantages to them. If Johnny had signed for 8 years, the AAV would have gone up considerably.

[savemedrzaius]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

7.5 AAV would be 9% of the cap, which is what Gaudreau signed for.

to me, that's the number that seems fair... it might be a little higher than that, but it shouldn't be... i see a 6x7.5

Gaudreau`s contract is horrible though ( for Gaudreau) I think these young guys are starting to expect contracts on what they will be. No longer accepting to be underpaid anymore.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Why would Tkachuk expect to sign for more/equal cap percentage as Gaudreau? Honest question.

i think that's the position that calgary would take - whether he agrees to it is a different question.

As to why, imo, he isn't a better player than Gaudreau, so why should he get more?

its similar to the Gio cap... there's no reason why Gaudreau should have signed for less than Gio either at the time of the signing, but he did.

[keenan87]

I would be okay with anything under 8 mil and ecstatic with anything under 7.5 mil for Tkachuk.

I would also be okay with a bridge deal that ends around the same time as the Neal contract.

[Harry Lime]

It seems to be taking that into account. The projections taking RFAs into their age 27 or 28 year are less than the projections eating up maximum UFA years. Isn't that the point of the term length column?

Term is irrelevant, but the age of the player at the end of the term is. They all want a big 8 year UFA contract at the earliest possible age to get it.

[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by savemedrzaius

Gaudreau`s contract is horrible though ( for Gaudreau) I think these young guys are starting to expect contracts on what they will be. No longer accepting to be underpaid anymore.

Are you insinuating that the younger crowd believes that they are owed something without having worked for it? Why I never....