04-28-2019, 02:12 PM
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#141
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Powerplay Quarterback
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Pengrowth Saddledome, Section 222, Row 23, Seat 14/15
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6x6.75
or 8x7
His AAV wont be higher than 7 million. The kid can barley skate. He looks like bambi on skates. For a guy who draws penalties, and plays well below the goal line with a nice set of hands, this is the max. He is not an elite level skater or shooter, therefore is not a game breaker.
He will not have a better statistical year in my opinion than this year.
If they pay him more than that, then its a bad deal and we should trade him as his value is high right now, probably its highest it will ever be.
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The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Iggy Snipe For This Useful Post:
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04-28-2019, 04:16 PM
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#142
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Pent-up
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Plutanamo Bay.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Iggy Snipe
His AAV wont be higher than 7 million. The kid can barley skate. He looks like bambi on skates. For a guy who draws penalties, and plays well below the goal line with a nice set of hands, this is the max. He is not an elite level skater or shooter, therefore is not a game breaker.
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Thank you for a realistic description of Tkachuk.
I really really like the player. He is really good at what he’s good at.
But everything you wrote is true.
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04-28-2019, 04:29 PM
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#143
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First round-bust
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: speculating about AHL players
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Welcome to "On Whose Line Should Tkachuk Play Anyway?," where the players peak at 21 and the points don't matter.
__________________
"This has been TheScorpion's shtick for years. All these hot takes, clickbait nonsense just to feed his social media algorithms." –Tuco
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04-29-2019, 03:07 PM
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#144
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Seattle, WA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GioforPM
You'd have to look at it. The alternative is a Nylander situation. Holdout followed by stupid contract, followed by under-performance.
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This.
Missing the start of training camp will be an epic failure by both sides.
__________________
It's only game. Why you heff to be mad?
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05-06-2019, 04:31 AM
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#145
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Austria, NOT Australia
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FWIW, Matt Cane predicts 6 years and almost 8m/year.
1 yr $6,331,375 - 1.8%
2 yrs $5,466,670 - 4.0%
3 yrs $7,099,516 - 1.8%
4 yrs $7,357,256 - 2.0%
5 yrs $8,083,950 - 13.8%
6 yrs $7,980,355 - 38.0%
7 yrs $8,031,774 - 16.2%
8 yrs $9,600,960 - 22.4%
https://twitter.com/user/status/1125201678746226690
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The Following User Says Thank You to devo22 For This Useful Post:
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05-06-2019, 05:49 AM
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#146
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Thunder Bay Ontario
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He's good it I dont think he's worth 8. I think 7 is a lot too, around 6.5 is fair imo but I'm guessing itll be much more.
__________________
Fan of the Flames, where being OK has become OK.
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05-06-2019, 06:40 AM
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#147
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Fernando Valley
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Quote:
Originally Posted by devo22
FWIW, Matt Cane predicts 6 years and almost 8m/year.
1 yr $6,331,375 - 1.8%
2 yrs $5,466,670 - 4.0%
3 yrs $7,099,516 - 1.8%
4 yrs $7,357,256 - 2.0%
5 yrs $8,083,950 - 13.8%
6 yrs $7,980,355 - 38.0%
7 yrs $8,031,774 - 16.2%
8 yrs $9,600,960 - 22.4%
https://twitter.com/user/status/1125201678746226690
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$8 million seems a little high for six years. That's closer to the money I would expect him to get for eight years.
Last edited by Erick Estrada; 05-06-2019 at 06:42 AM.
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05-06-2019, 07:30 AM
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#148
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Erick Estrada
$8 million seems a little high for six years. That's closer to the money I would expect him to get for eight years.
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I think we all forget how much the salary cap goes up every year, which pushes up new contracts.
Although I would agree with you.
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05-06-2019, 07:38 AM
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#149
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Franchise Player
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Our GM has said many times that the regular season is where you earn your money and the playoffs are where you earn your legacy. I’m sure Tkachuk’s agent is happy to agree.
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05-06-2019, 09:46 AM
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#150
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary, AB
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$8 million/yr for 6 seems fair to me, because unfortunately the idiots in Toronto have inflated the RFA contracts.
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05-06-2019, 09:51 AM
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#151
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Crash and Bang Winger
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Quote:
Originally Posted by devo22
FWIW, Matt Cane predicts 6 years and almost 8m/year.
1 yr $6,331,375 - 1.8%
2 yrs $5,466,670 - 4.0%
3 yrs $7,099,516 - 1.8%
4 yrs $7,357,256 - 2.0%
5 yrs $8,083,950 - 13.8%
6 yrs $7,980,355 - 38.0%
7 yrs $8,031,774 - 16.2%
8 yrs $9,600,960 - 22.4%
https://twitter.com/user/status/1125201678746226690
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Curious how his algorithm works - this projection basically shows zero premium paid for more years between 5-7 years, then a big jump for an 8 year contract. That seems to be the case for most of the RFA players on his list for some reason - if I were to guess, it does seem like it's generally franchise players that sign 8-year deals as an RFA so perhaps that inflates things. Or maybe it's that Matthews signing a monster 5-year contract has kind of thrown the 5-year value out of whack.
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05-06-2019, 10:10 AM
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#152
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Phoenix, AZ
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I think Matthew will sign a 7x7.
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05-06-2019, 10:16 AM
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#153
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Franchise Player
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7.5 AAV would be 9% of the cap, which is what Gaudreau signed for.
to me, that's the number that seems fair... it might be a little higher than that, but it shouldn't be... i see a 6x7.5
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05-06-2019, 10:18 AM
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#154
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Pent-up
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Plutanamo Bay.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary
7.5 AAV would be 9% of the cap, which is what Gaudreau signed for.
to me, that's the number that seems fair... it might be a little higher than that, but it shouldn't be... i see a 6x7.5
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Why would Tkachuk expect to sign for more/equal cap percentage as Gaudreau? Honest question.
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05-06-2019, 10:19 AM
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#155
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by delayedreflex
Curious how his algorithm works - this projection basically shows zero premium paid for more years between 5-7 years, then a big jump for an 8 year contract. That seems to be the case for most of the RFA players on his list for some reason - if I were to guess, it does seem like it's generally franchise players that sign 8-year deals as an RFA so perhaps that inflates things. Or maybe it's that Matthews signing a monster 5-year contract has kind of thrown the 5-year value out of whack.
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You are correct. It doesn't seem to take into account the UFA years given up and the fact that players who give up a number of UFA years are delaying their UFA until a time which isn't advantages to them. If Johnny had signed for 8 years, the AAV would have gone up considerably.
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05-06-2019, 10:22 AM
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#156
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Help, save, whatever.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary
7.5 AAV would be 9% of the cap, which is what Gaudreau signed for.
to me, that's the number that seems fair... it might be a little higher than that, but it shouldn't be... i see a 6x7.5
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Gaudreau`s contract is horrible though ( for Gaudreau) I think these young guys are starting to expect contracts on what they will be. No longer accepting to be underpaid anymore.
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05-06-2019, 10:23 AM
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#157
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers
Why would Tkachuk expect to sign for more/equal cap percentage as Gaudreau? Honest question.
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i think that's the position that calgary would take - whether he agrees to it is a different question.
As to why, imo, he isn't a better player than Gaudreau, so why should he get more?
its similar to the Gio cap... there's no reason why Gaudreau should have signed for less than Gio either at the time of the signing, but he did.
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05-06-2019, 10:23 AM
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#158
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Flames Town
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I would be okay with anything under 8 mil and ecstatic with anything under 7.5 mil for Tkachuk.
I would also be okay with a bridge deal that ends around the same time as the Neal contract.
Last edited by keenan87; 05-06-2019 at 10:28 AM.
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05-06-2019, 10:25 AM
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#159
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Franchise Player
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It seems to be taking that into account. The projections taking RFAs into their age 27 or 28 year are less than the projections eating up maximum UFA years. Isn't that the point of the term length column?
Term is irrelevant, but the age of the player at the end of the term is. They all want a big 8 year UFA contract at the earliest possible age to get it.
__________________
"We don't even know who our best player is yet. It could be any one of us at this point." - Peter LaFleur, player/coach, Average Joe's Gymnasium
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05-06-2019, 10:33 AM
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#160
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by savemedrzaius
Gaudreau`s contract is horrible though ( for Gaudreau) I think these young guys are starting to expect contracts on what they will be. No longer accepting to be underpaid anymore.
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Are you insinuating that the younger crowd believes that they are owed something without having worked for it? Why I never....
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