Calgarypuck Prospect Ranking 2019 - Round 12

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'm never going to tell someone how to vote, but I just don't understand why playing in a game or two as filler is a big hurdle for a prospect when it comes to ranking their value.

Ryan Lomberg will always be an energy guy that will likely never be a full time NHL player at any role. If he is, which I can't see, it's a fourth liner or a popcorn muncher.

I just don't see players like that as prospects, they're fillers.

When I vote Gillies soon it will be because of the unpredictability of goaltending, and his tools that could still translate and not because he's the next guy up if a goalie gets hurt.

To be clear, I was not complimenting Lomberg so much as I was suggesting that the talent left in the prospect pool was close to drying up. I think that in two or three rounds the ceiling of most of these players is either a very long shot or a fourth liner/ popcorn muncher. Among those popcorn munchers, Lomberg has proven that he can contribute to the PK, and that he can skate at an NHL level, never mind that he ruffles a few feathers. Indeed at this point in his career the only noticeable difference between him and Hathaway is three inches.

I don't think that is a slight against the Flames. With the amount of picks they have made in the last three years, and the rate that players are graduating having a decent prospect pool 15 players deep is better than expected.

In the end its a moot point, because I haven't voted Lomberg, and wont until Ruzicka is off the board.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

To be clear, I was not complimenting Lomberg so much as I was suggesting that the talent left in the prospect pool was close to drying up. I think that in two or three rounds the ceiling of most of these players is either a very long shot or a fourth liner/ popcorn muncher. Among those popcorn munchers, Lomberg has proven that he can contribute to the PK, and that he can skate at an NHL level, never mind that he ruffles a few feathers. Indeed at this point in his career the only noticeable difference between him and Hathaway is three inches.

I don't think that is a slight against the Flames. With the amount of picks they have made in the last three years, and the rate that players are graduating having a decent prospect pool 15 players deep is better than expected.

In the end its a moot point, because I haven't voted Lomberg, and wont until Ruzicka is off the board.

But a guy that's almost 100% figured out with a top side of energy fourth liner will never get a vote from me over any of ...

Ruzicka, Koumontizis, Gawdin, Lindstrom, Feuk, Philp, Roman or even Foo ... because if they make it they'll have a larger impact. (or Yelesin, Lerby, Gillies in non forwards).

Give me 30% at finding a middle six, or 5th defenseman than 65% chance of getting a full time healthy scratch.

Honestly not trying to pick on you, I firmly believe everyone has a right to vote how they wish.

[FanIn80]

Gawdin! Gawdin! Gawdin!

Come on, who’s with me?

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Bingo

But a guy that's almost 100% figured out with a top side of energy fourth liner will never get a vote from me over any of ...

Ruzicka, Koumontizis, Gawdin, Lindstrom, Feuk, Philp, Roman or even Foo ... because if they make it they'll have a larger impact. (or Yelesin, Lerby, Gillies in non forwards).

Give me 30% at finding a middle six, or 5th defenseman than 65% chance of getting a full time healthy scratch.

Honestly not trying to pick on you, I firmly believe everyone has a right to vote how they wish.

In principle I agree with you. There is some nuance to be added though. I think that in terms of long shots, youth is a factor that need to be kept in mind. With that, I concede that the players left who were drafted after 2017 should be ahead of (someone like) Lomberg by virtue of their youth. But if contribution is the metric we are using, whether that is minimum or maximum future contribution, at some point optimism needs to give way to realism. This distinction is difficult to quantify and in any given year it changes. This year that tipping point is coming up sooner then it has before, simply because the Flames prospect depth is more slight than in previous years.

A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush, might not always be true. Still, here we are arguing about three skinny birds. If the birds in the bush were a little fatter I would completely agree with you, but I don't think that they are.

Don't worry about it even if you were picking on me I wouldn't mind because I respect you opinion, and don't really pride myself on how I evaluate the Flames bottom twenty prospects.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Ruzicka would be easily in my top 5 if he didn't (at least SEEMINGLY) have a huge wart - lack of drive.



I will always prefer size if all other attributes are equal. Ruzicka has the talent-level in my mind to be in and around the top 5 prospects on this team. I just see a lot of prospects with a tonne of potential just fizzle-out because they didn't work as hard as the next guy who was less talented.


Is Ruzicka the next Mangiapane, or is he the next Baertschi? That's what has me down on him. The one area of concern for him since before he was drafted was his lack of motivation. I really do think that this is a career-killer of a wart. I love some of the smaller skilled (equally skilled) players as they have been known to be extremely hard workers. Pelletier, Zavgorodniy, Sveningsson, Peterssen - yes, I do think that Ruzicka fits in skill-wise with them, stands-out from them since he is a head taller and has a much easier time adapting to the physicality of the NHL, but is nowhere near a consistent workhorse as the above mentioned players, especially in all 3 zones. That's why I haven't voted him ahead of these players, rather than me having some perceived notion of favouring smaller skilled players. That's actually the opposite - I favour the big guys with skill (almost to a fault, actually).



Stillman's interview does give me pause, but is it who Ruzicka really is, or was it just the energy from being traded back onto a powerhouse team (or even worse, just mere platitudes?). I need to see his effort level stay at a consistently high level for me to scratch off what I consider a rather big wart, and push him up my list.



Maybe I don't appreciate Ruzicka's skill-level? If Ruzicka is motivated, I expect him on the roster this upcoming season. That's how highly I think of him as a prospect given his attributes and abilities. Maybe not to start, but at some point with his size and skill level, it would only be a matter of time before he made the jump at some point in the season. I just can't ignore this perceived lack of drive in his game.


I voted Yelesin this round. Hard-nosed D-man that does everything well, and does it playing against men. You can make the case that he should have been picked earlier, and I wouldn't argue with it. I wonder what his upside is really going to be like, but at least he moves the puck well, and that's crucial for a defencemen hoping to be a top 4 in today's NHL.

[united]

Adam Ruzicka
He's big, he has decent hands and offensively ability, he is decent in his own end...but his attitude and commitment are concerns. He isn't always engaged and is easily rattled and knocked off his game, and when that happens he looks like a beer league player during a 10:45 PM weekday game going through the motions to get home ASAP. But when he is on he can drive a line and contribute at both ends of the ice. 32 even-strength goals in 65 games is impressive as is generating over 3.5 shots per game, while also having decent vision. Excellent in the dot, too - arguably the best in the OHL. If he can get the mental side figured out he has a good shot at making it as he has every tool in the box. If not, I reckon he'll be saying "what if" when he looks back on things later in life.

Ceiling: 2nd line C
Probable: 4A C
Floor: Outright bust


Also in consideration
Jeremy McKenna
One dimensional goal scorer but scoring goals is the most difficult skill in hockey. Excellent at getting open and finding gaps in coverage which allows him to get his hard and accurate shot off. Also terrific on the powerplay. But, his defensive shortcomings significantly reduce his probability of success. Hockey is full of junior snipers who didn't pan out, but there are a few who have turned into mighty good scorers. Over 5 shots per game is insane.

Ceiling: 2nd line W
Probable: Tweener
Floor: Outright bust


After Ruzicka and McKenna, I see a drop with the rest of the lot, noting I value ceiling much higher than probability of playing a handful of games on the 4th line.

Lucas Feuk

Spoiler!

At this stage his game is purely offensive, likely as a winger going forward, but one who plays a gritty game and isn't afraid to go to the tough areas of the ice. Excellent forechecker, but doesn't like his own zone. Good frame with plenty of room for growth over the next few years. Looking forward to him hopefully stepping up a level in competition next season.

Ceiling: 3rd line LW
Probable: Minors/Europe
Floor: Outright bust

Milos Roman

Spoiler!

A cerebral player who doesn't have the physical toolbox of most other draftees. Important player on the best defensive team in the conference as he often lined up against the opposition's best, which may have impacted his slightly disappointing offensive output. Very smart and patient player with a high degree of anticipation whether forechecking or angling in the neutral zone. At this stage his offense is unlikely to translate.

Ceiling: 4th line C
Probable: Minors/Europe
Floor: Outright bust

Ryan Lomberg

Spoiler!

Well known for his pesty play in the NHL, he actually put together a surprisingly good campaign in the minors which was likely partially the reason he was rewarded with some NHL cash. 0.5 ppg in the AHL with hardly any powerplay time isn't to be disregarded - he outscored Spencer Foo and Glenn Gawdin 5v5 in fewer games, for example.

Ceiling: 4th line W
Probably: Minor league journeyman
Floor: Minor league journeyman

Demetrios Koumontzis

Spoiler!

Difficult to get a good grasp as as an independent, the level of competition faced changed frequently. On the surface a good season, but another example of taking advantage of the man advantage but not doing as much as you hope the rest of the time. Hockey Ops speaks highly of him, but I'll reserve too much judgment for another year.

Glenn Gawdin

Spoiler!

Coming off an enormous WHL season as an overager on the second best team in the league, he had a reasonable first year as a pro - I maintain the leap from junior to the AHL is a huge step for rookies so cut them some slack as a result. That said, just 5 even strength goals in 60+ games is concerning. Next season will be a big one in his development. Right shot gives him a leg up.

Ceiling: 4th line utility player
Probable: Minors/Europe
Floor: Minors/Europe

Luke Philp

Spoiler!

Very interested to see his first season of pro. Completely murdered a league filled with mid-range ex-WHLers/high-end ex-Tier 2 juniors. Likely a hard working journeyman but need some viewings.

Eetu Tuulola

Spoiler!

Massive human being who had an excellent season in Finland. A respectable 36 in 60 but with a shooting % of 6 he likely could've added a few more goals to that point total. As a natural right wing, he could become a defensively responsible banger which is not only coveted by the Flames, but the entire league. Also a big body in front on the powerplay.

Ceiling: 4th line RW
Probable: Europe
Floor: Europe

Josh Nodler

Spoiler!

Decent year of output in the USHL without a ton of powerplay time, but you could counter that by noting he also sported a shooting % of 19. Avoids the difficult areas but plays smart and efficient. Needs to up the intensity and become less of a perimeter player, but the hockey sense as a two-way forward is there.

Ceiling: 4th line utility player
Probable: Minors
Floor: Outright bust

Alex Yelesin

Spoiler!

A bit of an explosion onto the scene for the Russian defenseman after getting voted into the KHL all-star game despite playing in the toughest division in the league. Small by glancing at his bio, he plays quite the opposite closing gaps quickly to initiate effective contact and being first to the corner on pucks knowing a hit is coming shortly after. Neither an offensive threat or a defensive liability, he plays a simple solid game, but doesn't punt the puck without considering options. Next year in the AHL will present much more information - penalty discipline could become an issue. A leg up as a right shooter.

Ceiling: #4/5 defenseman
Probable: #6/7 defenceman or KHL
Floor: AHL flameout back to KHL

Carl-Johan Lerby

Spoiler!

Adequate two-way defenseman who blossomed with an increased role as a powerplay quarterback this season. Small frame but smooth skater. Needs to get better defensively, but another season of development in Sweden with a big plate of confidence could do wonders.

Ceiling: #6 defenseman
Probable: Minors/Europe
Floor: Minors/Europe

Rinat Valiev

Spoiler!

As expected in Stockton. No nonsense defenseman who can chip in on the powerplay in a pinch but is better suited at evens and killing penalties. Isn't exceptionally good or poor at any aspect of the game.

Ceiling: #6 defenseman
Probable: Journeyman/injury call-up
Floor: Journeyman/injury call-up

Dustin Wolf

Spoiler!

Not much to say. Superhuman season in the WHL following right in the footsteps of Carter Hart. If he were 3+ inches taller he doesn't make it into the third round and possibly goes in the first. The NHL has become obsessed with tall goalies, but the Blues just won the Cup with an undersized goalie, and guys like Jaroslav Halak, Jonathan Quick, Antti Raanta, Philip Grubauer, Anton Khudobin have enjoyed solid careers as small guys. Cautiously optimistic.

Jon Gillies

Spoiler!

Needless to say, Gillies' fall has been rapid and somewhat unexpected. Goalies are voodoo, but his college numbers were off the charts. With a save % of just .902 over his last 2,500 shots faced in the AHL, he needs a big season badly...if he even gets the chance. That said, who the hell knows with goalies (nobody does).

N/A
Artem Zagidulin
Nick Schneider

No hope
Spencer Foo
Mitchell Mattson
Linus Lindstrom
Andrew Nielsen
Justin Kirkland
Pavel Karnaukhov

[SebC]

Originally Posted by neo45

Also in support of Ruzicka (voted Yelesin though)

- highest NHLe of the players remaining (pretty sure at least)
- higher NHLe this season than Pelletier, MEP, Phillips etc
- has size
- good defensively and on faceoffs which lowers the bust factor for me

I tried to find a list of Flames prospects with NHLe but couldn't find one. (Could of course make one, but I have other projects.)

[united]

Originally Posted by SebC

I tried to find a list of Flames prospects with NHLe but couldn't find one. (Could of course make one, but I have other projects.)

These are from my own model, which will vary from others' so use skepticism and adjust as you see fit. Adjusted column is adjusting everyone to age 24.0. As always, huge impact from (or lack of) special teams minutes.



- Dube, Phillips, Gawdin should be given extra credit as AHL rookies (very tough level change).
- Philp and Koumontzis excluded.
- Mattson credited with 1 point though he actually had 0.

[Bingo]

I'll get a new one up tomorrow.

Took a pass today in light of the Lucic napalm

[Reggie Dunlop]

Conditional 2020 Third Rounder.

[TheIronMaiden]

So, it's a run off?