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Old 11-22-2019, 05:49 PM   #101
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Haha, so I effed up my spreadsheet at the start of the season and have been basically been working off of bad data for the entire year. If I had done it correctly, the record would be 88-67-8 vs. the 79-76-8 record it currently is. Still well short of the 60% mark I want to hit but it's in the profit margin (>52.4%) at 54% instead of the mild loss I'm sitting at right now.

Interesting because I'd kind of abandoned it a few weeks ago and was using it more as a reference point than a tool but I'm going to go back to it this week and see if I can't make some money back. I'm currently sitting around 52.2% for the year.

So I took a bunch of games this week to test it out:

IND +3.5
SEA ML
BUF -4
CHI -6.5
PIT -7
DET -3.5
TEN -3.5
NE -6.5
NYJ ML
GB +3
ATL -4
BAL -3
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Old 11-24-2019, 06:55 PM   #102
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5-5 with two games left to play.
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Old 11-25-2019, 11:43 AM   #103
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I'm in a pick em pool where we choose every game against the spread, for Athletic subscribers there is a podcast called Best on the Board which has really helped me. They do a podcast on Wednesdays and an update on Fridays where they go through all the games and go in depth on their best 7 picks. They have some really great data I wouldn't otherwise get (public betting figures, money vs. ticket splits) so I'd highly recommend checking it out if you're looking for new information. I've gotten 9 or more correct in 5 of the last 6 weeks, including a couple weeks with 11
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Old 11-27-2019, 02:55 PM   #104
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A sneaky good bet right now is TEN +400 to win the AFC South.
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Old 11-27-2019, 03:18 PM   #105
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6-6 last week brings me to 41-38-1 for the year. This week I'm on a bunch of games again because I'm a fiend.

CHI -1
BUF +7
GB -6
DEN +2.5
ATL +7
KC -10
CAR -10
JAX ML
SF +6
PIT +1
NE -3.5

Also added a ML parlay of TEN, JAX, DEN, PIT, MIN just for fun.

Last edited by rubecube; 11-27-2019 at 03:20 PM.
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Old 11-28-2019, 10:46 AM   #106
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Bills +7 is an absolute steal. Cowboys are frauds.
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Old 11-28-2019, 02:55 PM   #107
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Bills +7 is an absolute steal. Cowboys are frauds.
Yeah, I'm not sure in what universe the Cowboys are 7 points better than the Bills right now.
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Old 12-06-2019, 04:14 PM   #108
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7-4 last week, which brings my total to 47-42-1. Spreadsheet went 9-6-1, bringing it to 102-81-9 for the year. To put that in real $ terms, if I were to put $100 on each bet, with a 10% vig (the book I use is around 5-7%), I'd be up about $1290 by just using the spreadsheet, and $80 relying on a mix of the spreadsheet any my own stat-browsing/guesstimations. Too bad I screwed up and mathed so poorly at the beginning of the year.

That said, my preseason futures bets look good. I missed on my Bills projections, and looks like I'll miss on the Raiders and Broncos, but looks like I nailed the Cowboys, Seahawks, Jets, and Ravens. Titans could go either way at this point but I'm guessing it ends up a push. That said, the Ravens to win the division pays 3 to 1, which will essentially wipe out 3 of those losses, and if Seattle can hold on to their division lead it also pays 3 to 1, so I'd end up pocketing about $160 in winnings (all were $20 bets). Worst case Ontario, I'm probably still looking at an $80 profit or so.

This week I have:

GB -13
BUF +6
DEN +9.5
SF +2.5
NYJ -5
NE -3
TEN -3
LAR -1
CLE -7.5
PIT -2.5

Last edited by rubecube; 12-06-2019 at 04:25 PM.
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Old 12-06-2019, 05:51 PM   #109
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13 points is an awful lot to give up there, even if it is the *******s.
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Old 12-06-2019, 05:57 PM   #110
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13 points is an awful lot to give up there, even if it is the *******s.
Yeah, I'm not super confident in that pick. If I had to pick my 3 favourite picks, they'd probably be the Jets, Titans, and Broncos/Rams. I actually also like the Niners quite a bit this week and debated taking them ML.
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Old 12-06-2019, 06:26 PM   #111
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Originally Posted by rubecube View Post
7-4 last week, which brings my total to 47-42-1. Spreadsheet went 9-6-1, bringing it to 102-81-9 for the year. To put that in real $ terms, if I were to put $100 on each bet, with a 10% vig (the book I use is around 5-7%), I'd be up about $1290 by just using the spreadsheet, and $80 relying on a mix of the spreadsheet any my own stat-browsing/guesstimations. Too bad I screwed up and mathed so poorly at the beginning of the year.

That said, my preseason futures bets look good. I missed on my Bills projections, and looks like I'll miss on the Raiders and Broncos, but looks like I nailed the Cowboys, Seahawks, Jets, and Ravens. Titans could go either way at this point but I'm guessing it ends up a push. That said, the Ravens to win the division pays 3 to 1, which will essentially wipe out 3 of those losses, and if Seattle can hold on to their division lead it also pays 3 to 1, so I'd end up pocketing about $160 in winnings (all were $20 bets). Worst case Ontario, I'm probably still looking at an $80 profit or so.

This week I have:

GB -13
BUF +6
DEN +9.5
SF +2.5
NYJ -5
NE -3
TEN -3
LAR -1
CLE -7.5
PIT -2.5
Is this an Alberta thing? I could see people in Alberta saying that.

Also glad to see you've finally come around on my Bills. I'm not as confident against this Ravens team but hopefully is a close game.
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Old 12-06-2019, 06:32 PM   #112
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Is this an Alberta thing? I could see people in Alberta saying that.

Also glad to see you've finally come around on my Bills. I'm not as confident against this Ravens team but hopefully is a close game.
TPB reference. I'm still not entirely sure what to make of them. I think they've benefited from a fairly easy schedule, but the only game in which they were totally non-competitive was against the Eagles.
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Old 12-10-2019, 05:02 AM   #113
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TPB reference. I'm still not entirely sure what to make of them. I think they've benefited from a fairly easy schedule, but the only game in which they were totally non-competitive was against the Eagles.
That game was frustrating. Allen overthrew his wide receiver way too often especially in the first quarter. Connect on one of those and it's a completely different game.

Defence looked great again though so overall I'm ok with the game. They need to pound the Steelers next week.
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Old 12-10-2019, 05:30 PM   #114
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That game was frustrating. Allen overthrew his wide receiver way too often especially in the first quarter. Connect on one of those and it's a completely different game.

Defence looked great again though so overall I'm ok with the game. They need to pound the Steelers next week.
I'm still not sold on Allen, to be honest. He's in his second year, so I'm willing to cut him some slack but the advanced stats aren't kind to him and he's had the advantage of being able to beat up on some pretty bad defenses this year.
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Old 12-13-2019, 12:43 PM   #115
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A nice two-week win streak (6-4 last week) for me after snapping a 4-week losing streak brings me to 53-46-1 for the season and puts me in the profitable range with a 53.5% win percentage. Not much of a profit, but a profit nonetheless. Conversely my spreadsheet had it's worst week of the year (4-10-2), putting it at 106-91-11 for the year dropping it to pretty much the same winning percentage.

This week I have:

DET +3.5
NE -10
TEN -3
CAR +6
OAK -6.5
LAR -1
LAC +2.5
SF -11.5
DEN +10
PIT -1
IND +8

Last edited by rubecube; 12-13-2019 at 12:52 PM.
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Old 12-15-2019, 10:03 PM   #116
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Jesus Christ. Effing beatdown.
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Old 12-17-2019, 11:46 AM   #117
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This should hopefully teach me a bit of humility as, for some reason, I decided to bet against most of my spreadsheet picks this week and the thing absolutely whooped my ass. I went 1-8-1 and the sheet went 11-4-1.
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Old 12-20-2019, 01:07 PM   #118
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Decided to bet against my spreadsheet on a lot of games again this week because I'm a glutton for punishment. We'll see what happens.

DEN -6.5
JAX +7.5
TEN +2.5
NYG ML
PIT -3
CHI +6
CIN -1
MIN -5.5
CAR +6.5
SF -6.5
NE -6.5
ARI +10
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Old 12-20-2019, 01:23 PM   #119
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Decided to bet against my spreadsheet on a lot of games again this week because I'm a glutton for punishment.
Yeah, I might have lost a bit but I still think I can win said no Gambler ever.

Good luck to you. I'd be interested to see what your Spreadsheet recommends as a comparison.
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Old 12-20-2019, 01:30 PM   #120
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Yeah, I might have lost a bit but I still think I can win said no Gambler ever.

Good luck to you. I'd be interested to see what your Spreadsheet recommends as a comparison.
Full spreadsheet picks for the week (bolded the ones that are different than mine):

DEN -6.5
NE -6.5
OAK +7
SF -6.5
TB +3 (this game is offline right now, so not sure what the actual spread is)
JAX +7.5
BAL -10
NO -2.5
IND -6.5
MIA -1
PIT -3
NYG +2.5
DAL -1.5
SEA -10
CHI +6
GB +5.5
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