The Athletic Duha: Dechipering the evolving trade market

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by transplant99

That would leave the club with roughly 22.5 million. Add 3 million as the cap increase, but also deduct bonuses reached by guys on their elc's this year. No idea what that comes to, but im pretty sure it will eat most if not all of the increase.

Tkachuk is going to be 8.5 minimum (as high as 9.5) if we are using Matthews as the baseline for a new deal and anything longer than 3 years.

Stone is going to be no less than 8 and likely a bit more and he is very likely going to want a 7 year deal on top of that.

So that would leave say 8 million to sign, Bennett, Rittich, another goalie, Mangiapane, Hathaway or replacement, and Prout or replacement.

Simply isnt happening without a bridge to MT, and that could be playing with fire looking long term.

I don’t see Tkachuk getting 8.5-9.5. Knowing that salary negotiations are ugly, Treliving could break out a number of points if necessary

- salaries of Gaudreau and Gio who are better players. (I know the rebuttal - these are pre Matthews and irrelevant .
- Monahan and Lindholm are on great contracts. That’s how teams win. (So what? They signed before they demonstrated their value)
- your dad reportedly has a history of wanting max dollar... how many cups did he get?
- (Crosby is making 8.7 and has 3 cups)
- a lot of your points came with PP1 time, with one of the top lines in the NHL and a Norris calibre D man. Do you think you may have been a beneficiary of that?
- you put up a 7 game streak with 0 points. (Slumping, coincidentally, when the top line was ‘slumping’ as well - although Johnny still put up 5 points in those 7). What happened there?
- your skating - you are not the fleetest of foot
- here’s a video montage of blind drop passes between your legs to no one. What’s the deal with that? That’s not Gretzky being aware of his teammates, that’s hoping that you are fooling the other team and hoping your teammates guess that you are dropping it

Not that you can’t rebut all of these, but still, if you are a negotiator and there are millions at stake, reasons not to spend a dollar you don’t have to should be brought up.

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by transplant99

He may get 9.

There is no way Chucky is getting 9M. I doubt he even gets 8M to be honest. I think Tre gets him at 7M x 6, which is fair for both sides imo. He is not Matthews or Marner. He is not a line driver like they are, so won't get as much imo.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I seriously doubt it.


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Sure, but lets just look at the numbers.

Nylander signs for an AAV of 7 for 6 years

GP 214 G 51 A 96 P147

Matthews signs for an AAV of 11.6 for 5 years

GP 187 G 101 A 84 P P185

Now Matthew

GP 201 G 61 A 93 154

So would you agree that MT falls somewhere in the middle of those two when everything is factored in beyond just production?

Im guessing that the ask is 10...the counter is 7.5...split the difference and you are at 8.75 for 6 years and if you want to go max it will cost over 9.

All that being said I have a feeling BT wont do anything until the Marner deal and one more of Rantanen/Laine/Point are done before giving up what it is going to take.

I see NO way any deal with term comes in under 8...but a "bridge" is possible too.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

There is no way Chucky is getting 9M. I doubt he even gets 8M to be honest. I think Tre gets him at 7M x 6, which is fair for both sides imo. He is not Matthews or Marner. He is not a line driver like they are, so won't get as much imo.

???

He IS the line driver on 3M.

Like...what?

[icecube]

7.8 mill for 6 years. You heard it here last.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by transplant99

???

He IS the line driver on 3M.

Like...what?

A line that doesn’t score

Look at his ES points

So he can kinda drive a 2nd line on the team. That isn’t worth 9

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by transplant99

???

He IS the line driver on 3M.

Like...what?

No, he really isn't if you watch closely. Chucky does not drive play on his own. He needs a good set up person or a person in good position to feed to. He can't carry a line on his own. Marner and Matthews can. Again, just my opinion.

Chucky brings other valuable assets like being a pest, but on pure hockey, he just isn't as good imo. Which is fine, he's not asked to be Matthews or Marner. And hence why he will get less.

And just because Dubas overpaid for Nylander doesn't mean Tre will for Tkachuk. Flames will regret paying him anything over 7.5M imo.

[csnarpy]

Sorry a little off topic here, but Sureloss, can you fix the main title? I initially got screwed up wondering what " dechipering" was...

Sorry to nit pic...

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by csnarpy

Sorry a little off topic here, but Sureloss, can you fix the main title? I initially got screwed up wondering what " dechipering" was...

Sorry to nit pic...

You can change it...

go to edit...advanced options

[Enoch Root]

I think acquiring and signing Stone is doable. But I think 3 things have to happen:

1) Bennett is part of the deal because a) there will no longer be room for him in the top 6 so he is going to be a problem anyway, and b) he will probably cost $3M next year
2) Brodie would have to be moved in the off-season
3) and of course, Frolik would have to be moved

Gaudreau - Monahan - Lindholm. $18M
Tkachuk - Backlund - Stone....... $5.35M ++
Dube - Jankowski - Neal............ $8.2M
Mangiapane - Ryan - Hathaway.. $4.68M
Lazar, Czarnik.......................... $2.2M

Giordano - Hamonic... $10.6M
Hanifin - Valimaki...... $5.85M
Kylington - Andersson $1.49M
Stone....................... $3.5M

Rittich...................... $4M
Backup..................... $2M

That adds up to $65.85M, leaving $16-17M, depending where exactly the cap comes in.

I think Tkachuk signs a 5 year deal, not 8. Assume Stone signs for 7 years. Should have no problem getting them done for $16M ($15M IMO).

You can still move Mike Stone if need be. And I think you can get Rittich and a backup for less than $6M. Also, you can look to move out Czarnik and have a cheaper replacement (saving $2-300K).

[Enoch Root]

Having said all that, I don't think they go in that direction because it would really limit their flexibility going forward.

I think they go the Zuccarello as a rental route.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I think acquiring and signing Stone is doable. But I think 3 things have to happen:

1) Bennett is part of the deal because a) there will no longer be room for him in the top 6 so he is going to be a problem anyway, and b) he will probably cost $3M next year
2) Brodie would have to be moved in the off-season
3) and of course, Frolik would have to be moved

Gaudreau - Monahan - Lindholm. $18M
Tkachuk - Backlund - Stone....... $5.35M ++
Dube - Jankowski - Neal............ $8.2M
Mangiapane - Ryan - Hathaway.. $4.68M
Lazar, Czarnik.......................... $2.2M

Giordano - Hamonic... $10.6M
Hanifin - Valimaki...... $5.85M
Kylington - Andersson $1.49M
Stone....................... $3.5M

Rittich...................... $4M
Backup..................... $2M

That adds up to $65.85M, leaving $16-17M, depending where exactly the cap comes in.

I think Tkachuk signs a 5 year deal, not 8. Assume Stone signs for 7 years. Should have no problem getting them done for $16M ($15M IMO).

You can still move Mike Stone if need be. And I think you can get Rittich and a backup for less than $6M. Also, you can look to move out Czarnik and have a cheaper replacement (saving $2-300K).

You don’t move Stone before Brodie?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Having said all that, I don't think they go in that direction because it would really limit their flexibility going forward.

I think they go the Zuccarello as a rental route.

Zuccarello!


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[PlayfulGenius]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Zuccarello!


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He's known to be good defensively too, is he not?

I seem to recall he's been good in playoff games, too

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

You don’t move Stone before Brodie?

Kept Stone on the roster for the brotherly thing, mostly to show how doable it is.

But also, I think they would have to move Brodie simply to restock some picks and/or prospects. They wouldn't get much of anything back moving Stone.

In reality though, if they did acquire Mark Stone, Mike is probably gone as well.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by PlayfulGenius

He's known to be good defensively too, is he not?

I seem to recall he's been good in playoff games, too

He is a very good all around player, and very useful throughout the lineup. Would be a great acquisition, based on what the cost appears like it might be (i.e. not a 1st).

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by transplant99

???

He IS the line driver on 3M.

Like...what?

Backlund put up as much points with Frolik and Bennett the year before Tkachuk showed up. Also this year whenever Tkachuk has been separated from Backlund he does nothing. He is not a line driver. He is a great complementary player with strong intangibles but he doesn’t drive a line.

[sureLoss]

If Mark Stone signs in Calgary I imagine he would want assurances that his signing doesn't force the Flames to move his brother in order to make cap room. Or at the very least a trade where Michael wants to go regardless of his no trade list. That could handcuff Treliving.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

If Mark Stone signs in Calgary I imagine he would want assurances that his signing doesn't force the Flames to move his brother in order to make cap room. Or at the very least a trade where Michael wants to go regardless of his no trade list. That could handcuff Treliving.

I expect that there is still some uncertainty about whether Michael Stone even comes back, no?


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[transplant99]

Originally Posted by PlayfulGenius

He's known to be good defensively too, is he not?

I seem to recall he's been good in playoff games, too

He's a really good player, but he is tiny. He plays bigger than he is, but that still doesn't mean he plays "big". 55 pt guy pretty regularly though.

He can help any team to different degrees, but he doesn't really change much for the Flames overall as goalscoring isnt the issue here (last couple weeks aside) and this club simply has to get harder to play against, particularly in time for the playoffs.