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Old 12-05-2018, 08:16 AM   #81
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Update on Team Metrics vs Standings (Differentials)

Disclaimer: Not suggesting the metrics are more important than the standings. Not suggesting every team with good metrics will eventually win. Not suggesting every team with bad metrics will eventually lose. Just an interesting look at where teams are either hinting that change could be coming or where the system of analytics is breaking down.

Code:
Team	Rk	Stats	Diff
New Jersey Devils	29	9	20
Philadelphia Flyers	27	8	19
Carolina Hurricanes	20	4	16
Vegas Golden Knights	15	1	14
San Jose Sharks	16	3	13
Pittsburgh Penguins	24	11	13
Florida Panthers	25	12	13
Los Angeles Kings	31	19	12
St Louis Blues	30	22	8
Minnesota Wild	12	5	7
Montreal Canadiens	14	7	7
Chicago Blackhawks	28	21	7
Edmonton Oilers	22	18	4
Calgary Flames	7	6	1
Tampa Bay Lightning	1	2	-1
Arizona Coyotes	19	20	-1
Vancouver Canucks	26	27	-1
Boston Bruins	11	13	-2
Columbus Blue Jackets	13	16	-3
Nashville Predators	3	10	-7
New York Islanders	17	24	-7
Ottawa Senators	23	30	-7
Detroit Red Wings	21	29	-8
Colorado Avalanche	5	14	-9
Winnipeg Jets	6	15	-9
New York Rangers	18	28	-10
Dallas Stars	10	23	-13
Toronto Maple Leafs	2	17	-15
Washington Capitals	9	25	-16
Buffalo Sabres	4	26	-22
Anaheim Ducks	8	31	-23
My picks:

Teams Due to Fall:
1. Buffalo - sliding now, won ten in a row but only three in regulation. 22 spot disparity.
2. Ducks - riding the goalie far too much and he's injury prone. Ducks are ranked between 28th and 31st in all six indices. 23 spot disparity
3. Rangers - just too thin, ranked 25+ in all defensive measures with an old goaltender.

Teams Due to Rise:
1. Pittsburgh - good offensively, above average defensively but goaltending and shooting percentage is lagging. 13 spot disparity.
2. Philadelphia - very good defensively, but average netminding as per every year.
3. Vegas - single digit in every single category ranking and on a tear of late. Will be a top ten standings team soon.

Teams that Break the Model:
1. Carolina - when you're shooting percentage is breaking away from the pack on the down side you start to wonder why they lead the league in all three shot generation metrics. Fishy.
2. Toronto - unlikely to fall with high end forward skill and an all world goaltender. They don't need to control 60 minutes and generate favourable numbers to win.
3. Washington - throw back heavy team that may be seeing the league moving past them, but have the goaltending and skill to stick with the contenders.
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Old 12-05-2018, 08:19 AM   #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
Update on Team Metrics vs Standings (Differentials)

Disclaimer: Not suggesting the metrics are more important than the standings. Not suggesting every team with good metrics will eventually win. Not suggesting every team with bad metrics will eventually lose. Just an interesting look at where teams are either hinting that change could be coming or where the system of analytics is breaking down.

Code:
Team	Rk	Stats	Diff
New Jersey Devils	29	9	20
Philadelphia Flyers	27	8	19
Carolina Hurricanes	20	4	16
Vegas Golden Knights	15	1	14
San Jose Sharks	16	3	13
Pittsburgh Penguins	24	11	13
Florida Panthers	25	12	13
Los Angeles Kings	31	19	12
St Louis Blues	30	22	8
Minnesota Wild	12	5	7
Montreal Canadiens	14	7	7
Chicago Blackhawks	28	21	7
Edmonton Oilers	22	18	4
Calgary Flames	7	6	1
Tampa Bay Lightning	1	2	-1
Arizona Coyotes	19	20	-1
Vancouver Canucks	26	27	-1
Boston Bruins	11	13	-2
Columbus Blue Jackets	13	16	-3
Nashville Predators	3	10	-7
New York Islanders	17	24	-7
Ottawa Senators	23	30	-7
Detroit Red Wings	21	29	-8
Colorado Avalanche	5	14	-9
Winnipeg Jets	6	15	-9
New York Rangers	18	28	-10
Dallas Stars	10	23	-13
Toronto Maple Leafs	2	17	-15
Washington Capitals	9	25	-16
Buffalo Sabres	4	26	-22
Anaheim Ducks	8	31	-23
My picks:

Teams Due to Fall:
1. Buffalo - sliding now, won ten in a row but only three in regulation. 22 spot disparity.
2. Ducks - riding the goalie far too much and he's injury prone. Ducks are ranked between 28th and 31st in all six indices. 23 spot disparity
3. Rangers - just too thin, ranked 25+ in all defensive measures with an old goaltender.

Teams Due to Rise:
1. Pittsburgh - good offensively, above average defensively but goaltending and shooting percentage is lagging. 13 spot disparity.
2. Philadelphia - very good defensively, but average netminding as per every year.
3. Vegas - single digit in every single category ranking and on a tear of late. Will be a top ten standings team soon.

Teams that Break the Model:
1. Carolina - when you're shooting percentage is breaking away from the pack on the down side you start to wonder why they lead the league in all three shot generation metrics. Fishy.
2. Toronto - unlikely to fall with high end forward skill and an all world goaltender. They don't need to control 60 minutes and generate favourable numbers to win.
3. Washington - throw back heavy team that may be seeing the league moving past them, but have the goaltending and skill to stick with the contenders.
Great post, thanks.

The Devils have the greatest disparity, between stats and rank—. Haven’t watched them at all, is there a storyline with why they’re an outlier too?
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Old 12-05-2018, 08:26 AM   #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cam_wmh View Post
Great post, thanks.

The Devils have the greatest disparity, between stats and rank—. Haven’t watched them at all, is there a storyline with why they’re an outlier too?
New Jersey is a middling team or worse in shot metrics, but very good in high danger splits. Seems like a team maybe playing not to lose as opposed to having the depth to generate the pace of the game.
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Old 12-05-2018, 09:12 AM   #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cam_wmh View Post
Great post, thanks.

The Devils have the greatest disparity, between stats and rank—. Haven’t watched them at all, is there a storyline with why they’re an outlier too?
Anaheim (at -23) and Buffalo (at -22) have the greatest disparity.

As far as ANA goes, I think they do a good job of playing possum, because they know 1) that they have great goaltending, and 2) that they can score when they get the chances. So they are playing to that style, and I don't think they are poised to fall as much as some do.

BUF is getting enough goals, and enough timely goals, to keep them in games, but they only have 10 regulation wins, along with 4 in OT and 4 in SOs. To me, they seem more poised to settle back down to their stats somewhat. (i.e. they have been somewhat fortunate to date)
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Old 12-05-2018, 09:33 AM   #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root View Post
Anaheim (at -23) and Buffalo (at -22) have the greatest disparity.

As far as ANA goes, I think they do a good job of playing possum, because they know 1) that they have great goaltending, and 2) that they can score when they get the chances. So they are playing to that style, and I don't think they are poised to fall as much as some do.

BUF is getting enough goals, and enough timely goals, to keep them in games, but they only have 10 regulation wins, along with 4 in OT and 4 in SOs. To me, they seem more poised to settle back down to their stats somewhat. (i.e. they have been somewhat fortunate to date)
Yeah I had Buffalo at #1.

Anaheim will wear Gibson out, and he's already injury prone, playing the way they're playing.
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Old 12-05-2018, 09:33 AM   #86
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Carolina is an interesting story. Similar story as last year, yet significant changes in personnel and a new head coach.

I'm with you on Vegas, they just look good on the ice right now.
I think the Sharks will be sticking around all year. They have enough talent to improve their underlying numbers.

As for the Ducks, they have to be happy with their results to date and I think what we are going to see is they start to improve their underlying numbers as the year goes on. That organization has figured out how to win hockey games.

The Flames are doing great at making hay right now. Keep improving, avoid losing streaks and the division is well within reach. Goaltending though...
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Old 12-09-2018, 10:57 AM   #87
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Update on team differentials:

Interesting to see the Flames move into the unsustainable group to an extent ... moved up in the standings three spots in the last five days while moving down in metrics the same.

Code:
Team	Rk	Stats	Diff
New Jersey Devils	28	9	19
Carolina Hurricanes	20	3	17
Philadelphia Flyers	27	11	16
Vegas Golden Knights	15	1	14
Florida Panthers	25	12	13
Los Angeles Kings	31	18	13
Pittsburgh Penguins	21	8	13
Minnesota Wild	16	5	11
Chicago Blackhawks	30	20	10
Montreal Canadiens	14	4	10
St Louis Blues	29	22	7
Arizona Coyotes	24	21	3
San Jose Sharks	9	6	3
Edmonton Oilers	17	15	2
Boston Bruins	13	13	0
Tampa Bay Lightning	1	2	-1
Nashville Predators	5	7	-2
Vancouver Canucks	26	29	-3
Columbus Blue Jackets	12	16	-4
New York Islanders	18	23	-5
Detroit Red Wings	22	28	-6
Winnipeg Jets	8	14	-6
Calgary Flames	3	10	-7
Ottawa Senators	23	30	-7
New York Rangers	19	27	-8
Dallas Stars	11	24	-13
Colorado Avalanche	4	19	-15
Toronto Maple Leafs	2	17	-15
Washington Capitals	7	25	-18
Buffalo Sabres	6	26	-20
Anaheim Ducks	10	31	-21
Buffalo has now lost five straight, one my picks in the top ten in standings that shouldn't hold up. Anaheim continues to win on Gibson.

Toronto amazing offensive metrics and the skill to finish, while giving up way too much. I do wonder if that bites them in the ass.
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Old 12-16-2018, 09:40 AM   #88
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The win yesterday was an interesting one for the Flames in that they didn't give up a lot but also didn't generate as much as they usually do.

Having guys that can finish has been a boon this year, as they're scoring goals at a pretty high rate.

Before updating the regular stuff, here are the team rankings since the Pittsburgh loss (up to that point the Flames were giving up too much.

Prevention:
Shot attempts 1st
Scoring Chances 1st
High Danger Chances 6th

Creation:
Shot attempts 14th
Scoring Chances 11th
High Danger Chances 13th

They've become a very good defensive team with weapons that let them get by without having to dominate player to generate enough scoring chances to win.
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Old 12-16-2018, 09:53 AM   #89
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Regular Update:
Team standings vs metrics

Code:
Team	Rk	Stats	Diff
Philadelphia Flyers	29	9	20
Carolina Hurricanes	21	5	16
Vegas Golden Knights	17	1	16
Los Angeles Kings	31	16	15
New Jersey Devils	27	13	14
Chicago Blackhawks	30	20	10
San Jose Sharks	13	4	9
Montreal Canadiens	11	3	8
Florida Panthers	24	17	7
Minnesota Wild	15	8	7
St Louis Blues	28	23	5
Pittsburgh Penguins	16	11	5
Arizona Coyotes	25	21	4
Columbus Blue Jackets	14	14	0
New York Islanders	18	19	-1
Calgary Flames	6	7	-1
Tampa Bay Lightning	1	2	-1
Boston Bruins	10	12	-2
Ottawa Senators	26	29	-3
Nashville Predators	3	6	-3
Vancouver Canucks	22	28	-6
New York Rangers	20	27	-7
Detroit Red Wings	23	30	-7
Dallas Stars	19	26	-7
Colorado Avalanche	8	15	-7
Winnipeg Jets	2	10	-8
Edmonton Oilers	12	22	-10
Toronto Maple Leafs	5	18	-13
Buffalo Sabres	7	25	-18
Washington Capitals	4	24	-20
Anaheim Ducks	9	31	-22
Good Numbers - No Results:
1. Philly imploding - don't generate much, but stingy, goaltending letting them down
2. Hurricanes - not great defending, put everything on net, don't finish
3. Sharks - big blemish is high danger against. They're the Flames from October without the correction.

Bad Numbers - Good Results
1. Toronto - great attack numbers, terrible defensively. Bailed out by Andersson
2. Buffalo - weak attack numbers in totals, but the best finishers of high danger chances in the league to date.
3. Edmonton - With Hitchcock they've moved into the unsustainable group. 19th, 19th and 22nd in terms of generation. 14th, 21st and 21st in terms of prevention. Tick tick tick
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Old 12-16-2018, 11:06 AM   #90
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Anaheim is unbelievably lucky
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Old 12-16-2018, 12:44 PM   #91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
The win yesterday was an interesting one for the Flames in that they didn't give up a lot but also didn't generate as much as they usually do.

Having guys that can finish has been a boon this year, as they're scoring goals at a pretty high rate.

Before updating the regular stuff, here are the team rankings since the Pittsburgh loss (up to that point the Flames were giving up too much.

Prevention:
Shot attempts 1st
Scoring Chances 1st
High Danger Chances 6th

Creation:
Shot attempts 14th
Scoring Chances 11th
High Danger Chances 13th

They've become a very good defensive team with weapons that let them get by without having to dominate player to generate enough scoring chances to win.
Just posted in the Peters thread, but since the PIT game, the Flames are #1 in GA and #1 in SAPG.
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Old 02-14-2019, 01:40 PM   #92
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Flames Team Metrics by Month

February
What's working?
-Five on five shot attempts, scoring chances and high danger chances for at season high
-Powerplay creating more than at any point in the season
-Goalies stopping more pucks shorthanded

What's broken?
-Team five on five shooting percentage is down, but not to Oct/Nov levels
-Team save percentage down considerably five on five
-PP shooting percentage at season lows
-Giving up for shot attempts and scoring chances than even October five on five and shorthanded

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Old 02-28-2019, 03:17 PM   #93
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Literally zero reaction to this last time I posted but I'll give it another shot.

Summary: Five on Five
- More puck to the net in February than any other month
- Against in line with Dec and Jan, not as stingy as November.
- Other shooting metrics all up
- Shooting percentage well off from Dec and Jan
- after a slow start, PDO back to 101 range (slightly lucky)

Summary: PK
- still allowing way too much
- improved PK almost all on goaltending

Summary: PP
- Huge jump in shot attempts, but a drop in quality
- Huge drop in pp shooting percentage after off the charts January

Bottom line more sustainable winning than the month of January brought.

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Old 02-28-2019, 03:59 PM   #94
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Thanks Bingo. I always read these and digest them. Appreciate you putting the work in.
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Old 02-28-2019, 04:19 PM   #95
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Thanks for doing these Bingo. I know it must be a lot of work, but I find them extremely informative, especially when comparing the results month-to-month.


For instance, we have seen the top line (and Tkachuk) dry up offensively lately, but the depth scoring has really improved and continued to be the difference makers every night. I guess it isn't a surprise to see analytically that shooting percentage is down, and PDO is up. That is probably a reasonable expectation.


It is worth spending 5 minutes on these tables and thinking about what you have seen on the ice. Peters' system (and the talent on the team overall) really align nicely with the metrics. Hartley's and Gulutzan's systems didn't always align very nicely, which is why Hartley's system was 'unsustainable' while Gulutzan's was "about to turn a corner". I think the analytics community is probably still missing a few key stats somewhere that either haven't been developed, or haven't been widely accepted yet.


With the new tracking tools that the NHL is going to implement, I am sure that new metrics will be added. I really look forward to it.


These are highly appreciated Bingo! Thanks again for doing them.
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