[News] The 2018/19 All-Inclusive Media Flames Predictions Thread

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

You don't think Kovy/Phaneuf is as much improvement as Neal/Ryan?

Kovy is a wildcard but he was a much better player than Neal when he saw him last. He's been killing the KHL. I think him scoring 25 goals and 40+ points is a decent bet.

Phaneuf is better than Ryan.

Kings were a 98 point team last season, and with Phaneuf and Kovy I think they are a good bet to improve.

I'd argue the Kings are pretty consistent and not a crapshoot.

They basically had one bad year which was 16/17. Quick missed basically the entire season that year.

Yeah the Kings missed playoffs in 14/15 too, but they had 95 points and went 3-15 in OT/SO. I'd call that bad luck more than anything.

LA is only going places if we settle on just going their pace the whole game. They are a team full of slow players who are 30+ in age. The game nowadays is not about hard-nosed hockey with hitting and slowing down the game. It's all about speed and being versatile. That's why I feel like the Flames are going to be a hell of a lot better than the Kings. That's why McDavid himself scores so many points, speed is the cornerstone to winning now in the NHL.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Based on the moves made by the GM it would seem that he felt that both the coaching and roster were inadequate.

What's adequate? Making the playoffs?

Because when your coaching is adequate, you don't change it. You can always try to improve your roster, even if it's already "adequate". A truly inadequate roster leads to a blow-up.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Kings were a 98 point team last season, and with Phaneuf and Kovy I think they are a good bet to improve.

I'd argue the Kings are pretty consistent and not a crapshoot.

They basically had one bad year which was 16/17. Quick missed basically the entire season that year.

Yeah the Kings missed playoffs in 14/15 too, but they had 95 points and went 3-15 in OT/SO. I'd call that bad luck more than anything.

You're completely ignoring the fact most of their core players are on the downside of their careers.

Brown is turning 34
Carter is turning 34
Phaneuf is 33
Kovalchuk is 35

Even Kopitar and Quick, at 31 and 32, aren't spring chickens anymore.

And they have no young difference-makers on the horizon. Kempe might be a middle-six guy. That's it.

Kopitar, Doughty, and Quick ensure they won't be a dumpster fire. But the Kings are a team in decline.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

You don't think Kovy/Phaneuf is as much improvement as Neal/Ryan?

Kovy is a wildcard but he was a much better player than Neal when he saw him last. He's been killing the KHL. I think him scoring 25 goals and 40+ points is a decent bet.

Phaneuf is better than Ryan.

Kings were a 98 point team last season, and with Phaneuf and Kovy I think they are a good bet to improve.

I'd argue the Kings are pretty consistent and not a crapshoot.

They basically had one bad year which was 16/17. Quick missed basically the entire season that year.

Yeah the Kings missed playoffs in 14/15 too, but they had 95 points and went 3-15 in OT/SO. I'd call that bad luck more than anything.

You name a measure from last year and the Kings got pretty much killed in it ... all but results, and most of that due to Quick.

High Danger chance splits, scoring chances, team WAR, they were not a playoff team.

Add in Quick's knees and they'd be a team I'd be picking to miss.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by SebC

What's adequate? Making the playoffs?

Because when your coaching is adequate, you don't change it. You can always try to improve your roster, even if it's already "adequate". A truly inadequate roster leads to a blow-up.

And an inadequate coach leads to letting him go and hiring a new one.

GG is barely in the NHL because he decided to go and hang out with his buddy TM as assistant coach.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Was it really a big backpedal?

I said its a decent bet that Kovalchuk would have a season on par with Neal.

I still think that, and I don't think its an outrageous opinion to hold.

Kovalchuk was always a great player. He did well in the KHL. It's pretty likely he still has some game left in him.

I do discount the Czarnik addition because he has not proven anything about his NHL ability. I mean the Kings could add Michael Amadio to their team full time next year. He was ppg in the AHL as well.

Let's sign Nigel Dawes ASAP! And why did we ever let Linden Vey go?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Was it really a big backpedal?

I said its a decent bet that Kovalchuk would have a season on par with Neal.

I still think that, and I don't think its an outrageous opinion to hold.

Kovalchuk was always a great player. He did well in the KHL. It's pretty likely he still has some game left in him.

I do discount the Czarnik addition because he has not proven anything about his NHL ability. I mean the Kings could add Michael Amadio to their team full time next year. He was ppg in the AHL as well.

You realize Nigel Dawes had more KHL goals last season in less games. The KHL isn't a great league.

and do you even know what most improved means? Are the Kings really gonna improve much on 98 points?

I guess time will tell, to me you just sound like an butt hurt Oilers fan that can't admit the Flames have made major upgrades and your team (that finished behind the Flames) did basically nothing

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by dino7c

You realize Nigel Dawes had more KHL goals last season in less games. The KHL isn't a great league.

and do you even know what most improved means? Are the Kings really gonna improve much on 98 points?

I guess time will tell, to me you just sound like an butt hurt Oilers fan that can't admit the Flames have made major upgrades and your team (that finished behind the Flames) did basically nothing

The biggest thing the Kings did to improve was to not re-sign Lucic two years ago.

[calumniate]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Let's sign Nigel Dawes ASAP! And why did we ever let Linden Vey go?

I'm on board. Let's get this guy signed!

[Flames Draft Watcher]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/960/pat-ste...s-made-flames/

Loubardias analyzes all the Flames moves so far this offseason.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Bingo

You name a measure from last year and the Kings got pretty much killed in it ... all but results, and most of that due to Quick.

High Danger chance splits, scoring chances, team WAR, they were not a playoff team.

Add in Quick's knees and they'd be a team I'd be picking to miss.

Washington was last in high danger chances. Not sure I trust that one.

LA was midpack in corsi, and fenwick and the like. Not sure that means they aren't a good team.

Anaheim performs below average in those metrics year after year and they still make the playoffs.

Quick has been a workhorse 3 of the last 4 years. His last season was stellar through to the end. I would think Mike Smith is more of of a question mark going into next season.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Let's sign Nigel Dawes ASAP! And why did we ever let Linden Vey go?

So Kovalchuk is Dawes now?

Pretty sure a lot of fans here coveted Kovalchuk when he was still a free agent.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

You're completely ignoring the fact most of their core players are on the downside of their careers.

Brown is turning 34
Carter is turning 34
Phaneuf is 33
Kovalchuk is 35

Even Kopitar and Quick, at 31 and 32, aren't spring chickens anymore.

And they have no young difference-makers on the horizon. Kempe might be a middle-six guy. That's it.

Kopitar, Doughty, and Quick ensure they won't be a dumpster fire. But the Kings are a team in decline.

I would agree with you if we were doing a 3-5 year outlook.

I think next year the Kings will be fine.
Most of those old guys are coming off of good seasons.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Washington was last in high danger chances. Not sure I trust that one.

LA was midpack in corsi, and fenwick and the like. Not sure that means they aren't a good team.

Anaheim performs below average in those metrics year after year and they still make the playoffs.

Quick has been a workhorse 3 of the last 4 years. His last season was stellar through to the end. I would think Mike Smith is more of of a question mark going into next season.

The one that I found interesting was Manny's WAR model that looked at the contribution of each roster player in relation to winning.

They, the Ducks and Vegas were the worst three in the league when it comes to standings exceeding where they should have been.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by dino7c

You realize Nigel Dawes had more KHL goals last season in less games. The KHL isn't a great league.

and do you even know what most improved means? Are the Kings really gonna improve much on 98 points?

I guess time will tell, to me you just sound like an butt hurt Oilers fan that can't admit the Flames have made major upgrades and your team (that finished behind the Flames) did basically nothing

The jump from 98 to 107 points and possibly a division win is a smaller leap for the Kings than it is for Calgary to earn enough points to qualify for the playoffs.

I'm not upset at all about the Oilers. I think I'm being pretty realistic.

Anaheim and LA look better and deeper on paper than the other teams in the division to me, and they have a good track record of success.

Teams like Calgary and the Oilers will be banking on youth breakouts to pull ahead.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

So Kovalchuk is Dawes now?

Pretty sure a lot of fans here coveted Kovalchuk when he was still a free agent.

You specifically cited him being good in the KHL as a factor. Nigel Dawes has very equivalent stats. So while there is not a small amount of sarcasm in that response, the point is that lots of players are good in the KHL, especially old NHLers. The last time Kovalchuk was in the NHL he was 29 and coming off a half season for the same KHL team during the lockout (he was eating up the KHL then too). He then proceeded to score 11 goals in 38 games in the NHL.

Anyway the point is that there's no reason to think he's going to be anything like the Neal addition. Heck, he will barely make up the Gaborik points if he scores 15.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Bingo

The one that I found interesting was Manny's WAR model that looked at the contribution of each roster player in relation to winning.

They, the Ducks and Vegas were the worst three in the league when it comes to standings exceeding where they should have been.

I just found it on corsica's website and am looking into it now. It's an interesting idea for sure.

I would like to know more about how everything is weighted.

Initial impressions for me is that goals scored to me seems to carry a little too much weight. I assume that is why Ovechkin is first in the league for offensive WAR value and Gaudreau is 105th.

You could make an argument for Ovechkin there I suppose, but not Gaudreau at 105.


If WAR is predictive, I surely won't be upset if LA, Anaheim, and Vegas all tumble in the standings this year.

I also saw your article that had the Flames rising up to 14th next season. Did you happen to run the stats for the Oilers? I'm curious where team WAR would put them.

[GioforPM]

For fun, here's a story about which teams gained and lost most in the offseason. The team that gotten worse by the biggest margin?

https://thehockeynews.com/news/artic...-season-so-far

They are now partying with the Cup.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Teams like Calgary and the Oilers will be banking on youth breakouts to pull ahead.

For the Flames I would have said that's the case prior to free agency. But adding Ryan and Neal (and to a lesser extent Czarnik) has really helped our depth.

OUT: Ferland, Hamilton, Jagr, Versteeg, Stajan
IN: Hanifin, Lindholm, Neal, Ryan, Czarnik

Hanifin < Hamilton (although I think this will equalize within the next couple years)
Neal > Ferland
Lindholm > Jagr/Versteeg
Ryan > Stajan

Definitely straight up upgrades were obtained up front.

Czarnik gives us another roll of the dice at a top 9 winger. The Flames don't need all of Czarnik, Jankowski, Bennett, Lindholm, Hanifin to break out. Seems reasonable that at least a couple will. If the Flames high-roll in this area we become extremely deep compared to last year. Like adding another scoring line in terms of depth.

Then we have a prospect depth we're not even really counting on. Mangiapane (over a PPG in the minors), Foo, Dube, Klimchuk, Andersson, Kylington, Valimaki all may play games this year. There's a chance one of them could surprise and steal a regular spot. But there's depth in front of them in case none of them do. They'll get their chances due to injuries like always.

On defense we could be weaker or not. Brodie and Hanifin are the two major wildcards. Kulak, Andersson, Valimaki and Kylington are the minor wildcards. Will Brodie return to form being re-united with Gio and swapped back to the right side where he looked much more comfortable? No one knows. Will Hanifin continue to progress and replace Brodie of last year? Still a question. The Flames still have their best prospects at defense so they have a lot of great depth at that position. We will have a strong top 7 and also have several near NHL ready or NHL ready dmen to call up in case of injuries.

In goal health is always the wildcard. Smith was very strong pre-injury. Rittich was very solid most of the time. Gillies was inconsistent but impressed me with the way he'd bounce back from letting in a weak 1st goal and really shut the door the rest of the game. I thought both the young goalies showed a lot of promise and potential and contrary to what a lot of people believe I think our depth in goal is strong. I don't think the Flames should be looking for an experienced backup. Long term the goal is to develop Rittich, Gillies (and later Parsons) into NHL goalies so they need to play in the NHL in order to take the next step. Putting a veteran goalie in their way makes zero sense to me at this point in the development of Rittich and Gillies. If Smith goes down you can always trade for an extra goalie at that point. I think this talk of acquiring a backup is a bit of paranoia about injuries. At some point you have to trust your young goalies and let them develop at the NHL level. Just like any other position there will be some growing pains. I think if Smith suffers a short term injury we have to ride with Rittich/Gillies even though it obviously makes us nervous. It'll help their development and they may be better than last year.

Overall the team looks a lot stronger IMO. They have enough pieces for Peters to be able to assemble 3 solid scoring lines and a 4th line that still has some skill as well. Everything I've researched on Peters makes me think he's going to be a big upgrade on GG. His persona seems like much more a leader than GG was. He will change lines up and lean on key players at key times better than GG did. GG had a huge problem with game management. I've been very impressed by Peters demeanour and knowledge. Everything seems to point to him being extremely prepared. Ward has had a history of running successful power plays so if there's any improvement in that area it will really make a difference. Huska has inside knowledge of most of the young players in the organization and that will help us graduate players over the next year or two.

Flames are very much improved. One of the most improved teams in the league IMO. Are we banking on young players improving? Somewhat but we also have a lot of young players who are candidates to breakout. We're not counting on all of them to take a big step but its reasonable to think a couple will just due to the sheer volume of young players we have.

[dissentowner]

Trying to predict how the standings will end up is a fools game. Just look at Vegas last year.