Expansion Draft Scenario - Tanev vs Gio

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Out of curiosity, why? Pride? Allegiance to the Flames?

If Looch is going to Seattle, at that point he should want what’s best for Seattle

I think the notion was he’d waive, but if you are making a deal to ensure he goes, you’d better talk to him. Otherwise he’d think he was waiving just to be a good guy, with almost no risk he’s taken.

[SeanCharles]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Harming the franchise to protect an obviously deteriorating 38 year old defenseman would be incredibly stupid. Not even for a 7th or something paltry like that. We need all the prospects we can get over the next 3-4 years.

While I agree with the sentiment, trading a late rd pick to protect Gio allows us to trade him to a contender at the TDL for more than a late rd pick.

It would be doing Gio a favour in his chase for a Cup and would garner more assets to get more prospects.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by SeanCharles

While I agree with the sentiment, trading a late rd pick to protect Gio allows us to trade him to a contender at the TDL for more than a late rd pick.

It would be doing Gio a favour in his chase for a Cup and would garner more assets to get more prospects.

It’s a huge roll of the dice - Gio could slide downhill even more quickly, or get hurt, or limit his return with his NTC list.

[Strange Brew]

I could see the Flames trading D for forward help and given the other team involved, it could help both team's protected lists.

Both Hanifin and Brodie have been mentioned in deals for a forward so seems like something they would consider.

[djsFlames]

Protect Tanev at all costs.

The only reliable defensive d-man currently.

[HighLifeMan]

Exposing Giordano and having him selected seems like the ideal scenario for this organizatio moving forward.. Protecting him and paying Seattle to take someone else would be such a Treliving thing to do with how he values defensemen though.

If you want to change the culture around here what better way to do that than moving on from what will be your 38 year old regressing captain who has never led this team anywhere, while simultaneously freeing up nearly 7M in a league where capspace is so highly prioritized and sought after. The amount of flexibility and options that would be freed up following expansion would be immense.

[Major Major]

I am in full favor of using a 2022 3rd (no more) for Seattle to keep our top 4 in tact.

As has been outlined, if you get your third back from Gio at the deadline, you break even. An expiring Gio would get you a 1st round pick if the Columbus returns hold true, which they will. He's twice the dman Savard is right now.

Plus, you all know the flames aren't going full rebuild on purpose, right?

Scenario 1: Re-tool success, flames make playoffs with captain Gio in 2022. We win

Scenario 2: Re-tool fail. Gio holds value as a vet intangibled 40 point #4/5 dman who would lay in front of a train to help his team win. 2022 third becomes a 2022 first. We win

Scenario 3: Re-tool fail. Gio takes a step back in production. Remains a depth guy who will do anything to win. 2022 third becomes a 2022 third. Break even...

Scenario 4: Re-tool fail. Gio is injured. We lose

Argue all you want about the likely hood of those 4 scenarios, but the possible wins are much bigger than the loss, which at the end of the day, is a third round pick with a 5% chance of becoming an NHLer 4 years from now.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

What other player can they pick from the Flames exposed list can they use to trade for a second or third round pick in the 2022 or 2023 draft?

The Kraken still need to get to the cap floor, and come the trade deadline if they retain 50% of his salary and maybe even use another team to broker a deal to get his cap hit down to something like 1.7 for the last quarter of the season, I think there is a chance to get something back.

The expansion draft tool on Capfriendly is fun to mess around with:

https://www.capfriendly.com/expansion-draft/seattle

I just used the "quick protect" option and then filled in the remaining teams as best as I could, but based on that, it doesn't look like Seattle will have a shortage of large salaries to choose from who are younger and more productive.

Plus, they can always sign UFAs to get to the cap floor and not have to waste a draft pick to get there. I know they do have to reach a certain percentage of the cap floor through the expansion draft, but that should be really easy to do with the guys that are available.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Easily Tanev.

Worst case scenario, we suck again next year and Tanev now becomes a great asset to sell at the 2022 TDL. And he would fetch far more than 6.75m Gio, whom we’d have to retain probably max percentage to get anything of value.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I think it's a pretty safe bet that Gio will be worth more than a 3rd next deadline.

Flames could pay to protect Gio and still come out ahead in the long game picks wise

As others mentioned, injury risk or decline risk.

There is also the opportunity cost of what you could do with the 6.75M cap space. Ideally it's taking back a mediocre but useful player on a bad contract with a sweetener.

[Knut]

If Kylington is the guy taken you are ok. He is redundant in the organization. If that is all you lose you are laughing.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by dammage79

That's bad asset management IMO. Keep Kylington, save a ton of money and use the cap elsewhere. Your RFAs, trading for players from cash strapped teams...etc etc. Paying to take a cheap young asset over a soon to be retiree is bad. So very very bad.

Makes sense if you believe that OK is an everyday NHL'er.

I don't think management sees it that way whatsoever.

[Jason14h]

Do we think the core will be shaken up before the expansion draft?

I would trade Hanifin and a few of our protected forwards (Backlund, Monny, JG) and protect Gio and Tanev and other forwards coming back.

Then at deadline if you have missed playoffs you trade Gio and really are on a mostly clean slate for 2022-23 season start

[Blaster86]

I'm just really glad you guys have embraced Tanev so happily.

[CroFlames]

CBJ just traded their Captain.

Captains aren't some Holy Grail that don't get traded, or in this case, exposed.

It's business at the end of the day, despite him being a great Captain for many years.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by 868904

I think Treliving already has a deal with Francis.

Seattle takes Kylington and Flames will send them a 3rd round pick.

Seattle would only do this if they really don't value Gio at all.

If they think Gio has value that they would prefer to choose him over Kylington, I doubt a third round pick would change their mind.

If Gio was available at this years trade deadline, and had an expiring contract, I have little doubt he could have brought in a first round pick. Even at this deadline.

I doubt any deal is in place today. Seattle will want to see what king of magic they can pull on contracts before committing to anything.

I expect that Calgary will not want to lose Gio. That's where Treliving and Francis will decide who's bluffing the most.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

I'm just really glad you guys have embraced Tanev so happily.

Players that are consistent will always be loved

[Jiri Hrdina]

I don't think it's as much as a slam dunk as others do.
Reasons
- I think Gio on an expiring contract fetches a good return next deadline
- I think his downfall has been large, but he is still a guy that can help a team and therefore has that value next TDL
- Tanev's contract has long-term risk

I probably do what others suggest and protect Tanev believing Gio doesn't get picked. I most certainly do not send assets to Seattle under any scenario. This franchise needs to collect assets not shed them.

But I can also see Gio being protected and Tanev getting exposed. And I could still see Seattle picking a young guy like Kylington over him.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I don't think it's as much as a slam dunk as others do.
Reasons
- I think Gio on an expiring contract fetches a good return next deadline
- I think his downfall has been large, but he is still a guy that can help a team and therefore has that value next TDL
- Tanev's contract has long-term risk

I probably do what others suggest and protect Tanev believing Gio doesn't get picked. I most certainly do not send assets to Seattle under any scenario. This franchise needs to collect assets not shed them.

But I can also see Gio being protected and Tanev getting exposed. And I could still see Seattle picking a young guy like Kylington over him.

Only 2 more years than Gio, for a guy who’s 6 years younger, at $2.2M less. In 3 years $4.5 may not be nearly the percentage of cap as it is now, too. I don’t see Tanev’s contract as a huge risk. Backlund is older, makes more and has the same term. And look at the comparable aged D out there. There’s a lot of top 4 guys that age making more and for more term. And a lot of them aren’t near as good as Tanev.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

There shouldn't be a question between Gio and Tanev. It seems the best argument to keep Gio is that he might be worth something at the trade deadline? I think that is questionable, and even if true, how would Tanev be worth less? Better player now that is younger and cheaper. Seattle could immediately flip him for more.

Expose Gio and I think Seattle likely picks Kylington. They will need to pick up young talent.

Edit: Learn from the Vegas experience. Don't give away more than the one asset you are obliged to.