[CP Story] Summer of Change & Impact on Style of Play

[Bingo]

Long piece that looks at the types of players going out, coming in, the change in how they play, and how the Flames stack up for passing into danger areas against elite NHL offences.

Comments always welcome

Off Season Changes and Style of Play

[Strange Brew]

Great article as always Bingo. A lot of work here which I really appreciate. And couldn’t agree more with the conclusion that this year could be a real turning point for Treliving and the organization.

I will probably never agree that shooting percentage, or high danger shooting percentage, is significantly influenced by luck. For sure luck is a component, but being able to bury chances is definitely a skill IMO. Yes these percentages vary for players every year, but I don’t believe that’s because all other factors are being held constant.

Of the departing players, I’m most interested in seeing how Ferland does. Did Flames trade an emerging sniper, power forward combo? Or a streaky player who maxed out playing with 2 great players.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Great article as always Bingo. A lot of work here which I really appreciate. And couldn’t agree more with the conclusion that this year could be a real turning point for Treliving and the organization.

I will probably never agree that shooting percentage, or high danger shooting percentage, is significantly influenced by luck. For sure luck is a component, but being able to bury chances is definitely a skill IMO. Yes these percentages vary for players every year, but I don’t believe that’s because all other factors are being held constant.

Of the departing players, I’m most interested in seeing how Ferland does. Did Flames trade an emerging sniper, power forward combo? Or a streaky player who maxed out playing with 2 great players.

I project Ferland to amount to be a middle 6 LW/RW power forward who is going to to continue being streaky. His streakiness reminds me of Lee Stempniak when he played for the Flames.

He did get a lot of help from Gaudreau and Monahan, but he was still a skilled player in his own right. It doesn’t really matter how good he’s going to play on Carolina, because he would have been getting a raise regardless. I don’t ever see him hitting 50+ points though. Carolina has better wingers than him.

[Enoch Root]

Great article Bingo! Well researched and well written. And I think it was a very balanced assessment of the team and the changes.

Like StrangeBrew, I am not going to settle on luck as an explanation. I think we'll see a significant increase in goals without a similar increase in shot attempts or dangerous shot attempts this year, but I believe that will be a result of a better and more up tempo style of play, not because they are luckier.

At the end of the day though... just win, baby.

By the way, some of the names don't show up on the graph - which ones are Monahan, Bennett and Brouwer?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Great article as always Bingo. A lot of work here which I really appreciate. And couldn’t agree more with the conclusion that this year could be a real turning point for Treliving and the organization.

I will probably never agree that shooting percentage, or high danger shooting percentage, is significantly influenced by luck. For sure luck is a component, but being able to bury chances is definitely a skill IMO. Yes these percentages vary for players every year, but I don’t believe that’s because all other factors are being held constant.

Of the departing players, I’m most interested in seeing how Ferland does. Did Flames trade an emerging sniper, power forward combo? Or a streaky player who maxed out playing with 2 great players.

From all that analysis I would wonder something different.

Did Ferland's high dangerous pass ratio come from who he played with or who he is?

I asked that in a different way in the story but wondering if Lindholm's high tendency to pass would result in a big jump in his dangerous pass index when joined with Monahan and Gaudreau.

That seems more likely to me from the eye test of Ferland last year.

[The Boy Wonder]

Excellent article!

I also don't believe in luck, I believe the number of defenders back that the flames were always facing was a major factor, and I won't really buy any of the advanced analytics until they factor that in. Expected goals is ok, but it doesn't take into account that not all "high-danger shots" are created equally.

BUt all in all I agree with much of what you said.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Great article Bingo! Well researched and well written. And I think it was a very balanced assessment of the team and the changes.

Like StrangeBrew, I am not going to settle on luck as an explanation. I think we'll see a significant increase in goals without a similar increase in shot attempts or dangerous shot attempts this year, but I believe that will be a result of a better and more up tempo style of play, not because they are luckier.

At the end of the day though... just win, baby.

By the way, some of the names don't show up on the graph - which ones are Monahan, Bennett and Brouwer?

Missing players ...

Monahan - top left of Tkachuk
Backlund - just to the left and below Frolik
Bennett - congealed with Jankowski
Brouwer - near Lazar

Giordano - the obvious one missing on the dman chart

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Missing players ...

Monahan - top left of Tkachuk
Backlund - just to the left and below Frolik
Bennett - congealed with Jankowski
Brouwer - near Lazar

Giordano - the obvious one missing on the dman chart

Thanks, Bingo. I also openly wondered about this.

Can you also identify where Lindholm, Hanifin, and Ryan fit on the chart? I see six Carolina players in the "elite" quadrant.

[PsYcNeT]

Liked for "garbage collector Sean Monahan".

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Missing players ...

Monahan - top left of Tkachuk
Backlund - just to the left and below Frolik
Bennett - congealed with Jankowski
Brouwer - near Lazar

Giordano - the obvious one missing on the dman chart

Well I guess no coincidence that everyone in the lower left quadrant is gone, except for Lazar. And he shouldn’t be making long term plans. Some of that may be a function of them all playing with each other.

There is an unnamed player lower and to the right of Stajan. Tanner Glass?

Hathaway doesn’t look quite so useless on here.

[Bingo]

Here are the Carolina Charts

Forwards


Defense

[Bingo]

And here are the other new players ...

Boston


Vegas

[Enoch Root]

One interesting side note:

Carolina is chalk full of guys in the elite quadrant, while Vegas isn't.

Stats...

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

One interesting side note:

Carolina is chalk full of guys in the elite quadrant, while Vegas isn't.

Stats...

Yeah including the elite Josh Jooris.

[Bingo]

To be honest the word elite may be unfortunate in terms of use of words.

It's a high frequency of guys that put the puck on net, and guys that also pass it to people who with their next action put the puck on net.

I think it's a good skill to have, so I'd never suggest having players in that quadrant is a bad thing, but it doesn't make any of the shot attempts or the passes elite in themselves.

So if you are saying Carolina is in there and they lost so you shouldn't aim to have players in there I wouldn't agree.

But to have many players in there doesn't necessarily suggest you will finish well, or that the shot attempts are dangerous ... or that your goaltender will bale you out at the other end.

The second part of the article gets into dangerous passes, and the presence of high danger chances.

[Bingo]

As an aside, the presence of Carolina in all of these things continues to add to Peters in my mind. He clearly had his team playing a strong possession game despite being the only head coach in the NHL to have his teams in the bottom three in payroll in each of the last three seasons.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Fantastic information in this article. I don't want to dump on Gulutzan too much but there definitely things I want changed by Peters, some of which are alluded to in the article.

-Style of play. I understand the rationale behind shot metrics as a proxy of possession but true possession to me is controlling the puck PRIOR to the offensive zone and making plays all over the ice.

People may dislike Playfair but I recall his team making short passes from D to centre then centre up the ice and distributing to wingers (Langkow was so good, went back deep, timed it right and was available for that pass even when D were being pressured). There was a flow or rhythm to the attack and they made plays.

I want Peters to make sure the team is skating and making plays. Use the middle of the ice to come up through the neutral zone, get the D into the attack, hold the puck over the offensive blue line and makes some plays. A lot less of last year's dump and chase and the only plays you make were when the puck is down deep.

Gaudreau is not best suited for a get pucks deep, non creative style. Play a style more suited to the guys who play the top minutes, a modern style of speed, creativity, aggression and transition.

-Messaging. Gulutzan came off to me as a worrier and conservative coach. He was always talking about either 50/50 or not giving the other team chances etc. One could just tell this was constantly being preached in the dressing room because whenever you heard a Bennett or Jankowski in an interview they just parroted the coach's message - get it deep, play simple. I think the team ended up being scared to make mistakes, they played tight and overly conservative and highly reactive.

I want Peters to not neglect defensive hockey but to get his players thinking about the attack. They should be focusing on their ability to make plays, to skate etc. Do not worry so much about the opponents that the team is tight out there - not wanting to give up any chances. I want a more aggressive, proactive message and when I hear players in interviews that's what I want to hear.

I remember Hartley telling Monahan to think more offence and not be overly defensive minded - that was great! I hope Lindholm gets told this year with the cast Treliving has assembled.

The work ethic has to go up dramatically. Take away time and space, get to areas fast and quickly transition those turn overs into offensive chances.

Remember that New Jersey home game from 14-15? That third period was incredible in terms of how both teams skated. I remember Cammy talking about how the third was just so fun to play. The Flames created a lot of their luck by a ludicrously high work rate.

This roster is finally younger and faster: unleash that and let their natural abilities take over and make plays. Keep that message going and don't be so worried, mistakes will happen but the team will recover. Stress aggressive, attacking fast hockey.

[Bingo]

One of the biggest things with last year's team was their ability to bounce back or manage a hockey game when things didn't go well.

That is maturity, mental strength, but from what Treliving has said this off season, I think there was an expectation on coaching that wasn't fulfilled in his mind.

If you have a 50-50 game plan, as you said, and have an edge in play, but don't score first that can't be game over. Last year it seemed that first goal often led to a panic to things up when the style dictated a continuation of what they were doing would likely get the job done more often than not.

I think that's the biggest reason Gulutzan is gone.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

To be honest the word elite may be unfortunate in terms of use of words.

It's a high frequency of guys that put the puck on net, and guys that also pass it to people who with their next action put the puck on net.

I think it's a good skill to have, so I'd never suggest having players in that quadrant is a bad thing, but it doesn't make any of the shot attempts or the passes elite in themselves.

So if you are saying Carolina is in there and they lost so you shouldn't aim to have players in there I wouldn't agree.

But to have many players in there doesn't necessarily suggest you will finish well, or that the shot attempts are dangerous ... or that your goaltender will bale you out at the other end.

The second part of the article gets into dangerous passes, and the presence of high danger chances.

Absolutely not saying that - that would be a ridiculous conclusion.

However, if a team has an abundance of players that are excelling at a particular metric, yet that team is not good, while at the same time another team has few players excelling at that metric but the team is good, then one has to question that value of that metric.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Absolutely not saying that - that would be a ridiculous conclusion.

However, if a team has an abundance of players that are excelling at a particular metric, yet that team is not good, while at the same time another team has few players excelling at that metric but the team is good, then one has to question that value of that metric.

Or the metric is an excellent predictor of a to come corrective action.

The world was predicting the Flames plummet after the 14/15 season. I have listed teams who's WAR listing suggested they got more than they likely deserved (Kings, Ducks and Knights were the top three teams in that category).

Sometimes the result may not match the metric for sure, but that could in fact be a very good sign that one team is likely to have better fortune, and the other less "bounce" in the season to come.

Clearly Vegas had a lot go right last year.