Russian Intelligence War in the Uk

[FlameOn]

UK reacts. 23 Russian diplomats expelled. All UK based Russian state assets are now frozen. More sanctions are supposedly to be announced. Russian ambassador claims this is an "unnecessary provocation" lol

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-43402524

[FlameOn]

Also isn't this a hot proxy war already? There was a Russian oligarch linked to Putin that launched an attack on a US airbase in Syria using Russian mercenaries.

The mercenaries used were part of Wagner group, the Russian equivalent to Blackwater. Wagner is directly controlled by Prigozhin, the Oligarch who has been historically known to do Putin's dirty work. An attack like this would not be launched without Putin's approval.

The attack of course failed spectacularly resulting in almost all of the mercenaries deaths (200+ by reports directly from the mercs) and destruction of their armored vehicles.

One of the most complicated episodes in Syria's ever-twisting war took place the night of Feb. 7. In that incident, U.S. troops and their Syrian allies near the town of Deir al-Zour were attacked by hundreds of fighters loyal to the Syrian regime. The Americans responded with a devastating counterattack that the United States said left about 100 dead.

Soon, the situation was complicated further by reports that Russian mercenaries had taken part in the attack and were among the dead — making it the deadliest U.S.-Russia clash since the Cold War.

...

Prigozhin is a Russian oligarch who first became famous as a restaurateur — his nickname is “Putin's chef.” He has had a remarkable life, taking an unlikely path from prison, where he served nine years on charges related to robbery and prostitution, to becoming a Kremlin-linked entrepreneur.

He now has a reputation as a man willing to do Russian President Vladimir Putin's dirty work. Last week, he was included in a U.S. indictment that focused on the Internet Research Agency, a St. Petersburg-based firm that was alleged to have used social media to interfere in U.S. politics, including the 2016 presidential election. The indictment says that Prigozhin and his catering company, Concord, spent “significant funds” on the venture and that Prigozhin attended regular briefings on its work.

U.S. intelligence sources think that Prigozhin “almost certainly” controls the Wagner mercenaries fighting in Syria. Notably, Russian business outlet RBC reported last year that Utkin appeared to have been listed as the general director of one of Prigozhin's catering businesses.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...roops-in-syria
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.f48dff24ff88

[CaptainCrunch]

Putin is really angling for the Supervillain of the year award at this years banquet.

Unfortunately there's not a whole lot in place to stop him from what he's doing because he simply doesn't care.

Sanctions I supposed the west could deepen them, but the Russians' are in bed with the Chinese right now.

Freezing bank accounts internationally. Sure, but a lot of Putin's operations and hit people operate in hard currency.

I suppose you could force a confrontation in Syria with the Russians or with the NATO forces in Europe, but the strategic situation for the West is poor, and are we willing to have a confrontation that will make the losses in Afghanistan and Iraq look light?

You can cut the Russians off from the world diplomatically. The British took a small step today, I would expect that the American's will have to follow suit.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by SebC

As I understand it:

Ostensibly, once a spy's been traded, they're retired, off the board, and out of the game, but their safety is guaranteed.

If Britain were to reciprocate, and kill the agents the US returned to Russia, the flipside of this would be that if you turn on Russia, you die, but if you get caught spying for Russia, you die.

If Britain doesn't reciprocate, then Russia will succeed in creating asymmetry, and that's very bad news for Britain.

Fortunately, Britain, and the West have a reasonably effective out, despite having to stay palatable to their citizens. They can stop swapping spies with Russia (and they must, if Russia has ceased to uphold its safety guarantees) and increase economic sanctions as the balance of the punishment.

Of course, to be successful, the USA will have to ensure that its president isn't a Russian agent first.

I don't reckon Putin or Russia give a #### about the "unwritten" rules.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Putin is really angling for the Supervillain of the year award at this years banquet.

Unfortunately there's not a whole lot in place to stop him from what he's doing because he simply doesn't care.

Putin is deliberately attacking the UK and trying to destroy NATO as he sees it as an existential threat to his rule.

The UK could not be in a worse position right now. They are severely weakened because of Brexit, which Russia also engineered, and they are isolated from the EU. With Russia's Agent Orange in power, if the US does not come to the aid of the US after invoking NATO article 5, NATO is effectively toothless. Tillerson, as much as we thought was a Russian/Trump stooge, knew this and kept the alliance going. He has been fired for it.

NATO needs to choke off all his funds somehow or create more trouble for Putin domestically as well. If the US does not respond, Putin might as well have won his little cold war 2.0 and he'll move on to reclaim the Baltic states.

[Pointman]

More than anything, I am concerned about tensions between Russia and the West. As of now, it is nearly impossible to get a US tourist visa in Russia because the are no slots available for interviews. People are waiting for months, logging in every hour, to check if they can schedule an appointment. I just hope there will be no iron curtain again, as it will be a disaster for people who want to immigrate, such a me.

I also think, that the perceptions of Putin is a bit off in that he is being portrayed as a thug who does as he pleases. To me, he looks more like a desperate man, who is being cornered. Like that Crimea annexation, it happened because the west had toppled a Moscow puppet in Ukraine, so Putin felt he has to act or he is next.

This murder is more or less a "hands off" warning to MI6. Putin feels threatened by the western intelligence plotting against him in Moscow and he is trying to show his decisiveness. He is aging and declining, but he needs to make sure his spies are still scared of him, do they won't fall for a £100,000 like Skripal. It is about Putin trying to not lose his grasp on power in Russia, not so much about him trying to rule the world.

[Bagor]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

I don't reckon Putin or Russia give a #### about the "unwritten" rules.

I don't reckon the Brits or Americans do either.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

I don't reckon Putin or Russia give a #### about the "unwritten" rules.

The problem is this:

According to British security officials, Skripal continued to provide information to the UK and other Western intelligence agencies after 2010 for a period.[21]


He got back into play after being pardoned by Russia and swapped into UK. Once you are back into play, all rules are off as far, as I understand. If anything, it was him/Britain, rather than Russia, who broke the rules here.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Pointman

The problem is this:

According to British security officials, Skripal continued to provide information to the UK and other Western intelligence agencies after 2010 for a period.[21]


He got back into play after being pardoned by Russia and swapped into UK. Once you are back into play, all rules are off as far, as I understand. If anything, it was him/Britain, rather than Russia, who broke the rules here.

Maybe you are right.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a8253336.html

Police and MI5 are probing allegations of Russian state involvement in up to 14 deaths in the UK in the wake of the nerve agent attack on a former spy.

I wonder about the other deaths.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Putin is deliberately attacking the UK and trying to destroy NATO as he sees it as an existential threat to his rule.

The question is, is he deliberately attacking the UK, or a former spy. There's a difference here. Now the argument around the use of a chemical agent is a whole different ball game here, and I'd like to touch on that later. Right now, until they do something like capturing the killer, or catching a known Russian national on camera poisoning the victim, this is frankly a murder investigtion. Even if you point to it clearly being a weaponized nerve agent which points to state sponsership, and maybe I've missed it, where's the 100% link that it came from a Russian factory.

By the way, I'm on you're side here in a lot of ways.

Originally Posted by FlameOn

The UK could not be in a worse position right now. They are severely weakened because of Brexit, which Russia also engineered, and they are isolated from the EU. With Russia's Agent Orange in power, if the US does not come to the aid of the US after invoking NATO article 5, NATO is effectively toothless. Tillerson, as much as we thought was a Russian/Trump stooge, knew this and kept the alliance going. He has been fired for it.

Is the UK invoking article 5? That's the question right now, but I have a feeling that it won't be invoked because it would be considered to be not only a dangerous escalation, but is what Russia did here really something that article 5 was designed for. This isn't a systematic attack on the UK.

I believe that the last time that article 5 was invoked was after 9/11 by the US.

Its designed to bring about a specific military response, open ports up, re-enforce troop dispositions, design a Rules of Engagement, define a command structure. Energize data sharing between intelligence services. Basically its the cocked pistol. All NATO Forces in Europe would pretty much have to got to increased alert, and there would be a mobilization of troops, depending on what's defined.

Also if you invoke article 5 of the NATO charter using the justification of an attack by a weapon of mass destruction, you have to realize that NATO views WMD's as one term, because NATO doesn't really have a chemical weapons or bilogical weapons stockpile, it suddenly becomes a Nuke is a germ is a spray. The usual response from NATO at that point to a attack by a chemical agent would be nuclear.

Originally Posted by FlameOn

NATO needs to choke off all his funds somehow or create more trouble for Putin domestically as well. If the US does not respond, Putin might as well have won his little cold war 2.0 and he'll move on to reclaim the Baltic states.

Ok granted NATO needs to choke off funds to Russia. Right now looking at the sanctions that were imposed by the EU and the US because of the Crimea Crisis, they're fairly indepth. Russia's Oil Industry, and banking industries have all been sanctioned, a bunch of individuals have been sanctioned. The ability for Russia to gain financial loans is pretty much gone. I don't know and I'm no expert what else you can sanction. Russia financially is pretty much cut off from the world. So what's next? A navel blockade of all tanker traffic and freighter traffic too and from Russia.

I mean the only person not personally Sanctioned is Putin himself, and the EU and US decided not to do that, because it would pretty much kill any diplomatic avenues with the leadership of Russia.

Here's the other problem, and I've mentioned it before.

Lets say that article 5 is invoked. You start surging troops to Syria and to the Crimea. Maybe you're intention is to show resolve, you know, frighten the Russians into sensibility. You maybe move more naval assets into the Black Sea, or to the middle east.

Then what. The old saying is this and I'm paraphrasing because I can't find it.

But two armies gathered in a field and their leaders decided to sit down to discuss a treaty. Paranoia ran high between the two sides and the tension was great. One soldier saw a Asp and drew his sword to slay it. The other soldiers saw this and their paranoia got the best of them and the two armies fell upon each other.

You put NATO and the Russians in close quarters at a heightened level of alert and there's a good chance that things can spiral out of control.

The other problem is that and I've said this the Crimea, and the Middle East and specifically Syria are at the end of a long logistical chain. And we all know that NATO needs the US military to really threaten the Russians.

NATO isn't fighting the taliban here, or ISIS. They're fighting a fully modern Army/Navy and Airforce at the end of a short logistical train. The Russians basically have a bunch of army groups on their side of the border in Europe. NATO would have to fight through the Russian Navy, Airforce and Russian Naval aviation to re-enforce it. Now in the end, the American's and NATO will probably win if it becomes a high tech stalemate. But it will be a brutal form of warfare. Plus I don't see it staying conventional for long as NATO doesn't have the numbers to delay the Russians if this gets ugly without using nukes. I also can't see the Russian's not going Nuclear to remove American carrier power from the equation.

Militarily this is a shyty situation.

From an economic standpoint what else can you sanction?

From a PR standpoint, the Russians don't care.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Pointman

The problem is this:

According to British security officials, Skripal continued to provide information to the UK and other Western intelligence agencies after 2010 for a period.[21]


He got back into play after being pardoned by Russia and swapped into UK. Once you are back into play, all rules are off as far, as I understand. If anything, it was him/Britain, rather than Russia, who broke the rules here.

Homeboy never saw John Wick.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

Someone please can someone please find that thread where people talked about how the US was just as bad as Russia.

US is just as bad. You can go with Iraq's invasion for starters. If you think, US government doesn't spy after Americans, google Snowden. And do you genuinely believe is Assange's sexual harassment case?

It is not about good vs bad, it is global powers playing dirty power games. And yes, Russia is horrible, I give you that.

[Bagor]

So, it's confirmed then.

Russia is responsible because Teresa May said so.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Pointman

US is just as bad. You can go with Iraq's invasion for starters. If you think, US government doesn't spy after Americans, google Snowden. And do you genuinely believe is Assange's sexual harassment case?

It is not about good vs bad, it is global powers playing dirty power games. And yes, Russia is horrible, I give you that.

Just as bad guys, just as bad.

Look how many bodies of journalists and political opponents the US is stacking up.

Russians deserve their leaders.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

The question is, is he deliberately attacking the UK, or a former spy. There's a difference here. Now the argument around the use of a chemical agent is a whole different ball game here, and I'd like to touch on that later. Right now, until they do something like capturing the killer, or catching a known Russian national on camera poisoning the victim, this is frankly a murder investigtion. Even if you point to it clearly being a weaponized nerve agent which points to state sponsership, and maybe I've missed it, where's the 100% link that it came from a Russian factory.

By the way, I'm on you're side here in a lot of ways.

Yes, the nerve agent was of a type only the Russian's produce, the "Novichok" nerve agents specifically desgined to evade NATO detection equipment. I think this is a message to the UK and not specifically Russians. If it had been a message to former spies specifically, that Skripal's death would have been enough, but Russian continued to assassinate people despite the UK demanding answers and assassinated Nikolai Glushkov less than 12 hours after Elizabeth May demanded answers from Putin.

"It is now clear that Mr. Skripal and his daughter were poisoned with a military-grade nerve agent of a type developed by Russia," she said. "This is part of a group of nerve agents known as Novichok."

"As far as I know, I don't know anybody who knows how to make it except these guys in Russia," says Dan Kaszeta, a chemical weapons expert with Strongpoint Security in London. "They've been a deep, dark secret."

Novichok means "newcomer" in Russian. Kaszeta says that Novichok agents were developed in the 1980s as a new weapon in the waning days of the Cold War. Novichok chemicals were designed to evade equipment carried by NATO troops. "They wanted to develop nerve agents that the West couldn't detect," he says.

https://www.npr.org/sections/paralle...nitely-russian

Is the UK invoking article 5? That's the question right now, but I have a feeling that it won't be invoked because it would be considered to be not only a dangerous escalation, but is what Russia did here really something that article 5 was designed for. This isn't a systematic attack on the UK.

Not likely at the moment I would say since the US position is unstable. But this is a systematic attack on UK soil with the deaths of now 16 nationals under UK protection.

Militarily this is a shyty situation.

From an economic standpoint what else can you sanction?

From a PR standpoint, the Russians don't care.

Yes, a direct military confrontation is not the answer to de-escalate. A message has to be the sent though. Russia has employed mercenaries to attack US bases, does NATO respond with similar proxy battles with it's own mercs? I am not sure what deters this type of asymetrical proxy warefare that Russia is currently employing.

Putin has shown no willingness to back down in use of these type of irregular forces in both the Crimea, Ukraine and Syria... he will continue to employ them if not deterred.
He is rich and can weather the sanctions, his lackeys cannot though.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by nik-

Just as bad guys, just as bad.

Look how many bodies of journalists and political opponents the US is stacking up.

Russians deserve their leaders.

Like US had been trying to kill Castro for decades:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assa...n_Fidel_Castro

But again, I am not debating the lists of sins. It us more about overall optics of global powers playing dirty power games. Portraying this as "good vs evil" is naive.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Maybe you are right.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a8253336.html


I wonder about the other deaths.

I am confident that Russia is behind most, if not all, of those. Putin murders people. No argument about it.

[afc wimbledon]

Putin is testing the limits of Russian power in a world where they have successfully elected Trump and gone a long way to breaking up the EU.
If you listen to UK radio you will hear endless numpties calling in defending Russia saying it might not be them, Russia's disinformation is superb.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Yes, the nerve agent was of a type only the Russian's produce, the "Novichok" nerve agents specifically desgined to evade NATO detection equipment. I think this is a message to the UK and not specifically Russians. If it had been a message to former spies specifically, that Skripal's death would have been enough, but Russian continued to assassinate people despite the UK demanding answers and assassinated Nikolai Glushkov less than 12 hours after Elizabeth May demanded answers from Putin.



https://www.npr.org/sections/paralle...nitely-russian

Fair enough, I missed that part of the announcement. My bad, however what's the Russian response, is basically, prove it. Even the French are basically saying we need more in terms of a string of evidence.

This is equivalent to going to trial with the bullet and not having the gun or the shooter in custody.

I'm not saying the Russian's didn't do it, I firmly believe it, but in terms of State, I think that they would need a lot more linking this to the Sovie . . . errr Russians.

Pfft, the Russians' pretty much have to at some point, say, sorry, but some of these agents went missing a few years back, and we've arrested Private Slovak here for stealing from a storage facility and selling it to the Russian underworld.

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Not likely at the moment I would say since the US position is unstable. But this is a systematic attack on UK soil with the deaths of now 16 nationals under UK protection.

Sure I agree, I fully believe that the Russians are killing former agents and enemies abroad in the Uk. it goes all the way back to the Umbrella and Markov in the late 70's. But the question is, is this a matter of military concern?

Probably not, its still a police matter to me.

And a diplomatic matter.

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Yes, a direct military confrontation is not the answer to de-escalate. A message has to be the sent though. Russia has employed mercenaries to attach US bases, does NATO respond with similar proxy battles with it's own mercs? I am not sure what deters this type of asymetrical proxy warfare that Russia is currently employing.

I don't know, but probably the last thing that we want to see is some kind of tit for tat that leads to a nation state shooting war between two of the most powerful militaries on the planet.

Basically about the only thing that the American's or nato can do is up and announce increased self defense measures and heightened rules of engagement. The invisible lines of death.

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Putin has shown no willingness to back down in use of these type of forces in both the Crimea and Syria... he will continue to employ them if not deterred.
He is rich and can weather the sanctions, his lackeys cannot though.

And he won't back down, and there aren't a lot of levers to stop him.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Like US had been trying to kill Castro for decades:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assa...n_Fidel_Castro

But again, I am not debating the lists of sins. It us more about overall optics of global powers playing dirty power games. Portraying this as "good vs evil" is naive.

That's an absurd comparison for many reasons, and if you can't see that, you've totally lost the plot. Just stop with the embarrassing attempts at creating equivalencies. There is no "well, but they did this so they're bad too" in this situation.