Brad "Frickin" Treliving

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Not really sure how constructive this is to compare to the league average, the comparison should be to their career average, and some of those comparisons shouldn't be made like in the case of Stajan for instance. The wheels clearly fell off for him last season, and now he's in Europe.

Stone for example has a career shooting percentage of 4.4 and shot 3.1 last year, but he has some outlier seasons at the start of the career.

Lazar has a career shooting percentage of 5.7, so expecting him to hit 9 or 10% is a big ask.

Backlund can definitely improve his shooting percentage,




My impression is that shooting percentages were down largely because shots for were up.

TJ Brodie saw a decline in shooting percentage from 7.7% to 3.4% from 2016/2017 to 2017/2018, but he saw an increase of 40 more shots as compared to the season previous.

In Backlund's final season under hartley, he took 155 shots through 82 games, converting on 13.5%.

Last season, Backlund took 214 shots, nearly 40% more shots, and converted on 6.5%. He scored 2 less points last season as compared to his last season under Hartley.

The Flames were taking a larger volume of lower percentage shots as a group which I think is the greatest contributing factor to their lower shooting percentages.

In the last season under hartley the Flames were 20th in Shots For Per Game with 29.2, basically sandwiched between 23rd place and 14th.

Last season under GG, the Flames were 6th overall in shots for with 33.6, sandwiched between 9th and 4th (carolina).

Hartley's last year outscored GG's last year by 13 goals. Hartley's last year allowed 14 more goals than GG's last season.

It's not apples to apples, but I think it's a pretty good illustration that there was a finite amount of talent on the roster for both coaches that could be deployed in different ways and essentially yield the same results.

That's an interesting premise, let me look into that. It doesn't explain every player but it may explain what happened to the 3M line.

One thing to remember too though is the fact that the league added a new way of counting shots on goal last season which saw the average game go up by 10% ... that factors into most of your team differential as every team went up on average last year.

The 15th ranked NHL team two years ago had 30.4 shots, last year 32.2 so 1.8 shots per game for the median team. Calgary went from 29.1 to 33.6 or up 4.7, seems like a third of that at least was do to counting.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Bingo

That's an interesting premise, let me look into that. It doesn't explain every player but it may explain what happened to the 3M line.

IMO, the decline in production from the 3M line is completely explained away by the brutal injury Frolik had. Edit: And the putrid depth that made his loss nearly insurmountable.

One thing to remember too though is the fact that the league added a new way of counting shots on goal last season which saw the average game go up by 10% ... that factors into most of your team differential as every team went up on average last year.

Huh, I didn't know this.

The 15th ranked NHL team two years ago had 30.4 shots, last year 32.2 so 1.8 shots per game for the median team. Calgary went from 29.1 to 33.6 or up 4.7, seems like a third of that at least was do to counting.

interesting.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

My 'hot take' is the flames would have not been all that much better or worse the last few years had they not made the Hamilton and hamonic deals. Those assets would have been rounding out by now....

Well, the Hamilton picks have just now "rounded out" to be Lindholm and Hanifin, sort of. It's not like they're just gone.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

League average shooting % is around 9.1%. Here are the 2017-18 Flames:

Michael Frolik: 5.2
Matt Stajan: 5.7
Sam Bennett: 5.8
Curtis Lazar: 5.9
Troy Brouwer: 6.2
Michael Stone: 6.6
Travis Hamonic: 6.8
Mikael Backlund: 7.0
Mark Jankowski: 7.2
Brett Kulak: 7.2
Garnet Hathaway: 7.7
Dougie Hamilton: 7.9
Mark Giordano: 8.1
TJ Brodie: 8.1
Matthew Tkachuk: 8.5
Micheal Ferland: 10.1
Johnny Gaudreau: 10.4
Sean Monahan: 10.7

And here are the newcomers:

Noah Hanifin 7.6
Derek Ryan 8.3
Elias Lindholm 8.7
James Neal 11.5

If just half of the sub 0.091 shooters increase back towards the mean, we should see quite a bit more offense even if Gaudreau-Monahan-Neal regress a bit.

We can’t use the league average when you’ve got forwards who always have a higher shooting % than defenseman. It’s best to look at their career high individually and go from there.

[Bingo]

OK Flash ...

Had a look at Backlund season over season.

He was up 23% in undangerous shots, and 15% in dangerous shots. His on ice shooting percentage in the undangerous shots only sagged by 0.6% though, compared to his on ice shooting percentage in the dangerous variety which was off 2.8%.

The shear quantity of the first group over the second group though does lead to an equal weighting between the two.

His on ice performance lost 13 goals, 6.7 from non dangerous and 6.0 from dangerous.

So the answer is both ... more shots that didn't have much of a chance to go in, and then either a sag in finish for the whole line when in tight or an off year (bad bounces) for the trio as a whole.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by New Era

Someone as smart as yourself, and invested in statistics to the level you are, should recognize the failing of this statement. Statistical analysis is designed to all but eliminate "luck" and anomalous events. To suggest luck was involved is to suggest the model is flawed to begin with.

This is the most ridiculous thing you've said yet. Statistical analysis is not designed to eliminate the element of chance, but to separate all the other elements from it. People have been doing statistical analysis of card games for hundreds of years. That doesn't make the next card in the deck any more predictable than it was in 1600.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

I don't know about that. His intention is to move this team into a contender. Contending teams do not trade roster players for picks. Picks are used at the deadline for big playoff runs.

If the flames are starting to make moves for more draft picks, it certainly won't be treliving, as he will be let go for not putting together a winning team.

Not necessarily. Remember 2015 when Treliving dealt Glencross at the deadline for picks while the Flames were fighting for a playoff spot? In a certain sense, this approach is no different.

He has said on a number of instances that the organization 'has kids coming'. They do. In this case given the age of the core (for the most part), I don't see the Flames dealing picks at the deadline for stablished roster players. He has already done that.

My point is, he has the assets to do the opposite. The Flames could deal a player(s) like Bennett, Stone, Hamonic for picks while replacing them internally with players like Dube, Mangipane, Anderson, Valimaki, Kylington. It would not be surprising to see the only two p,ayers from today's blue line that are on the team in two years from now are Gio & Hanafin.

That will be the true sign of Treliving's success. Can he leverage the assets he has acquired through draft or trade back into draft picks (currency) to keep the organizational depth robust.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Itse

That last sentence is just false.

There is an objective and very accurate measuring stick for the impact a GM makes, and that's the standings. If Treliving had been a net positive impact, that should be visible in the standings. So far that just hasn't been the case. He inherited a team that did better than anything he's managed to put together, that's just a fact. It's not even close, his teams have bombed completely twice.

Now, just because he has so far failed to have an objectively net positive impact doesn't mean he's a bad GM, or that he has made more bad moves than good. Not everything is the GMs fault. For all I know he might turn us into the next dynasty team.

But right now the jury is still out. For all we know, Carolina could have gotten the three best players in a five player deal, and he just hired another bad coach. Or maybe we got the two best players in that deal and he hired a future hall of famer.

What bugs me is the certainty with which people are proclaiming him a great GM when objectively his teams have been between mediocre and bad.

I do not agree with this take. A GM has to build for the future, not just this season, and not all moves he makes will impact this season positively. For a rebuilding team, that fact is even more prevalent - many moves can actually hurt the current roster, in favour of future dividends.

I look at the results of the current season as being primarily on the coaches and players - did they perform to expectations, or did they under/over perform?

Whereas with the GM, I rate them based on the direction of the team, the vision, and the cumulative moves as they build and plan for the coming seasons. And in that regard, I think Treliving has done a fantastic job so far, regardless of the less than stellar on-ice results to date.

Obviously, of course, there must be a reconciliation over time between the moves and strategies of the GM and the overall results of the team on the ice. But that reconciliation needs to be cognizant of where in the cycle, the team is - simply looking at the standings and judging from there is far too short-sighted.

[bob-loblaw]

Bump.

In the middle of the GM gong show up the QE2, I thought of something. On the weekend I was watching the Sportsnet intermission with Burke. I wonder how much him leaving has to do with the recent decisions Brad made to make the team better this year? Did Brad feel unshackled to make a few decisive moves? I'm not exactly sure when Burke left, but Treliving was fairly decisive to get rid of the coaches. He righted the management then pulled off a trade that looks like one of the best made in the team's history.

I think the UFA signings will still pay off this season, but he did land one of the bigger UFAs in the summer. The contract signings he made look like steals right now too. You know he's not going to Chia a contract to anyone either.

In one summer he managed to find a solution to the RW problem on the top line. It's also looking like our goalie situation is going to be fixed too for the near future.

It will be interesting to see what he does up until the trade deadline, but everying seems to be comng up Millhouse for him and the team since April.

[getoverit]

Brad fricken treliving is right ......
What a cluster #*-&
Not happy. Worst trade deal in flames Hitoshi vis Brad. And brad worst USA signing. On the hot seat as damn well should be. Been a brad fan but loosing patience in a huge way


And u knew an old post would come back lol and being fire Tre was closed this was the closest lol

[btimbit]

Incoming emotional overreactions alert!

It's a lateral move at worst. I don't like the deal by any means but definitely am not going to freak out about it. We traded a crappy overpaid 4th liner for a slightly cheaper crappy overpaid 4th liner. Whatever

[Hey Connor, It's Mess]

I think you need to get over it

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by btimbit

Incoming emotional overreactions alert!

It's a lateral move at worst. I don't like the deal by any means but definitely am not going to freak out about it. We traded a crappy overpaid 4th liner for a slightly cheaper crappy overpaid 4th liner. Whatever

Ya lateral until we hit the expansion draft and have to protect the big dumb ass.

[getoverit]

How original lol. Ummm no...... tre sux on this deal period

Originally Posted by Hey Connor, It's Mess

I think you need to get over it

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by Moneyhands23

Ya lateral until we hit the expansion draft and have to protect the big dumb ass.

I think we lose a dman whether we have to protect Lucic or not

[AC]

Finished 2nd overall during the 82 game season last year. People were frustrated with Smith and Neal, and felt the team was too soft for the playoffs.

I would have preferred Kadri obviously, but I don't get the hate personally given the regular season we had. A few minor tweaks makes sense to me. There's been non stop bitching about this team not defending one another well enough and Lucic certainly brings that, and Talbot seems like one of just a couple options as a cheaper tandem option given Rittich's development. Coaching staff has familiarity with both as well.

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by AC

Finished 2nd overall during the 82 game season last year. People were frustrated with Smith and Neal, and felt the team was too soft for the playoffs.

I would have preferred Kadri obviously, but I don't get the hate personally given the regular season we had. A few minor tweaks makes sense to me. There's been non stop bitching about this team not defending one another well enough and Lucic certainly brings that, and Talbot seems like one of just a couple options as a cheaper tandem option given Rittich's development. Coaching staff has familiarity with both as well.

Im pretty sure lucic refused to fight and stand up for his teammates last year. He doesn't really do much of that anymore. He mostly just yaps and takes penalties for stick infractions

[CETokyo]

Treliving - (Edwards+King) = Lucic

[Fire]

I still think Treliving is the best Flames GM since Fletcher. He just needs to stay away from medium to high profile UFAs.

[AC]

Originally Posted by Moneyhands23

Im pretty sure lucic refused to fight and stand up for his teammates last year. He doesn't really do much of that anymore. He mostly just yaps and takes penalties for stick infractions

I don't think so. He dummied that TB player for hitting a teammate from behind.