Antivirals in a few months but vaccine +12 months is what I've heard. Unless you want to run the risk of having unknown and potentially disastreous side-effects you need to do trials with tens or even a hundred thousand people and that takes time.
But there is no way the economy is shut down for a year, even three months would be pushing it. Not to mention 90% of people who will only have mild symptoms, they aren't going to sit home for months. The other 10% will have to though and avoid contact for long time.
If the pandemic goes on for that long, the economic catastrophe that will go with it will make attending pro sports events a distant dream for most people.
Also, don't be surprised if the Panthers, Jets, Flames, Coyotes and Hurricanes are no longer in the league when it resumes play, under that scenario.
There have been three (?) possible vaccines in the early stages of development, and the American one has already started human trials.
I would think that there is going to be a television only play for all of the major sports by the end of May. And that is only if the Japanese drug treatment (or some other) is available for the players.
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Antivirals in a few months but vaccine +12 months is what I've heard. Unless you want to run the risk of having unknown and potentially disastreous side-effects you need to do trials with tens or even a hundred thousand people and that takes time.
But there is no way the economy is shut down for a year, even three months would be pushing it. Not to mention 90% of people who will only have mild symptoms, they aren't going to sit home for months. The other 10% will have to though and avoid contact for long time.
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There have been three (?) possible vaccines in the early stages of development, and the American one has already started human trials.
Yes I heard that too. Still, probably tens of thousands of patients that have to be monitored for side-effects who knows how long. The most optimistic estimate is 12 months at this point.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Harry Lime
I would think that there is going to be a television only play for all of the major sports by the end of May. And that is only if the Japanese drug treatment (or some other) is available for the players.
I don't see it happening. Besides antivirals just treat the symptoms. What happens if one player gets sick, infects his team and that team has to drop out of the playoffs? Shutdown mode again?
It would be fun if the nhl returned just for the playoffs, even if it was shorter with some unique format. If my math is correct the Flames would squeak in as the second wild card on a p/gm basis. It could be interesting.
40% that we have a training camp then playoffs without fans. I think the 24 team idea would be good.
80% on hockey in October
I think 8 teams would make a lot more sense logistically. Operationalizing 24 teams (and all of the associated support staff) for what will be a very brief, meaningless run for most of them. This assumes a world that is still in major disorder, but not total chaos.
The top 7 teams in the league are pretty clear (top two in each division, except PAC). PIT (and to some extent DAL and CAR) would have a legitimate claim ahead of EDM for the last spot, but I don't think that would be as difficult to navigate as figuring out a 24 or 31 team solution. I'd be satisfied with a simple coin flip to decide PIT or EDM.
I think more likely than any of that is a 12 team NBA scenario. There are 13 teams >.500, 6 East, 7 West. The Mavs would be unlucky, but their 40-27 is certainly worse than the 40-24 for both teams in #5 and #6 in the west. Lakers, Clippers, Bucks, and Raptors get first round byes.
I really can’t see a season resuming at this point and I feel the tongue wagging is just to create story lines. If the NHL resumes this summer and there are no butts in the seats I can’t see them making any money, probably losing some tbh, when you factor in Arena operations and overhead. TV viewership would be minimal when competing against Summer weather and presumably all other sports resuming too.
How about a final 4. You bring all the players staff and families into the closed Vegas hotels and wait 3 weeks isolating every family from eachother. When no one has symptoms you have a memorial cup tournament of the 4 division leaders.
Herd immunity will help, for awhile, but a vaccine will be the biggest challenge.
It will probably take just as long to develop herd immunity, if flattening the curve is the goal. Immunity to COVID is unknown at this point, could be permanent, could only be partial, could only last a year, etc. A vaccine is a huge challenge, and a year is the absolute best case scenario... it could potentially take years to develop (based on what I've heard, this virus is easier to develop a vaccine for than say HIV, but who knows for certain). If a vaccine is not available in the near term, I'm not really sure what the answer is then... let it run its course, I guess?
This is going to get dragged out in the US for quite some time (maybe until vaccines) and I'm afraid they will see their health care facilities overrun pretty badly. Cities will need to enforce lockdown to even begin to ensure this gets under control.
I hope for the best for them but the way it's going there no chance at a conclusion to this season at least.
Maybe that's for the best, as it seems like it was more or less a nightmare for our local heroes. And it was too good to be believed for the scrubs up north. Here's to a better next season, whenever that may be.
The government order in council that closes the borders has an expiry date of June 30. While the government could always revoke the order earlier, closed borders for three months completely eliminates any hope of resuming the season.
I have no issue if all major sports become made for TV events for the next year once things begin to stabilize. Mini tournaments, condensed playoffs whatever. Let's see some innovation. Why empty arenas? Why not rinks, gym's, fields etc.
The traditionalists that cry about it can suck an egg IMO. We are in a time of adaptability and change.