The relative value of Sean Monahan

[Monahammer]

This stems from other conversations in various threads, but I thought it might be deserving of it's own.

Could Sean Monahan have the relative value of someone like Joe Nieuwendyk, who landed us Jarome Iginla?

My own thought is that Sean still has enough value to be potentially used in an Eichel trade, or used an a trade to acquire additional pieces for that trade.

But, using Nieuwendyk as a comparable seemed like a good place to start my analysis.

First, the trade in question:



It took place in December, prior to the WJC where Iginla had a bit of a coming out party. He had started the season strong in Kamloops, and had been selected 11th overall in the most recent draft after a just under point per game pre draft season in the WHL.

I'm not sure if anyone can provide any additional context on Cory Millen as I can't beyond statistics; I don't really remember him playing for the flames, and the stats show he played ~90 games for us with 40 points over parts of 2 seasons for us before moving on to play in germany. League journeyman type of career, a la stempniak or versteeg it looks.

11th overall in a recent draft, and a journeyman for a star center. Sounds not bad; for comparison 10-14 in the 2020 draft is Perfetti, Askarov, Lundell, Jarvis, Holloway. Those are some good prospects.

The relative value of prospects has seemingly increased: the length of team control and the ability to stretch cap space to talent ratio with low value entry contracts is invaluable in the Cap world. So it's not apples to apples. But, relative value difference may be offset by Nieuwendyk's contract dispute and desire for a much higher dollar value than calgary could afford (Dallas signed him to a contract worth almost double what Calgary's reported offer had been) versus Sean Monahan's relatively cost effective in the cap world 6.375 for 2 more years.

Comparing Nieuwendyk to Monahan is an attractive match; they're both tall, large Centers who have a reputation for a shoot first mentality and finding open ice. Neither is known for using their size to bully people on the ice, but they're not afraid of getting to the middle and parking there. They both generate similar amounts of shots per season, both have a similarly high (~+5%) Shooting average compared to league averages over their career.

Career wise in Calgary, Nieuwendyk debuted at the tail end of his D+1 season at the age of 20. He scored at a 1.07 ppg pace in the regular season. 314 goals in 577 games in 9 years.

Though he never had any major injuries, he never played any full seasons. He was captain of the club and was part of a cup winning squad, though his playoff performance was notably less impressive than his regular season.


Sean Monahan started for the flames as a 19 year old the season after he was drafted. He has played 8 seasons for the club, 591 games and has 439 points, 204 goals.

Sean's stats have been relatively consistent in the playoffs, where his 0.7 ppg is only 0.04 ppg off of his regular season career of 0.74.


So, Joe had a somewhat more impressive career for the flames just off the cuff. Of course, the team Sean has been on is nowhere near the team that Nieuwendyk played on for most of his time in Calgary, and yet still chronically underachieved in the playoffs... oh the life of a Flames fan.

Trying to era adjust for the periods is a bit difficult. I selected the mid point year in both of their respective careers with the flames to compare the eras: 89-90 for Joe (his best season; 45 goals; 95 points) and 2017-2018 for Sean (His 2nd best season with 31 goals;4 points).

Average goals for in 89-90 was 295; Calgary had most in the league with 348.

Average goals for in 17-18 was 240 (* this is up from the lull in the 220s of the prior year, which could also be used as a mid point in monahans career.) The flames were 27th in the league with only 216 for. (WHAT A BAD TIME TO BE A FLAMES FAN)

Joe was in on (45/348) 12.9% of the flames goals that season. Disappointing follow up to the cup winning season as they fail to pass the kings in the conference semi finals.

Sean was in on (31/216) 14.3% of the flames goals in the corresponding season. This is a season where league scoring in general is down ~20% from the Joe's time. Arguably much more impressive given the relative lack of team depth and talent.

If we adjust Sean's career stats to match the era of Nieuwendyk, it gives him approximately 85 more points (41 goals). That would put him at a more comparable to Nieuwendyk: 245 goals and 524 points in 591 games.

It's not a perfect translation, and again I don't think you can account for the much higher quality of teammate that Nieuwendyk was working with the majority of his career. But, I don't think their relative value can be seen as far off. If you remove Monahan's first season and match his age to Nieuwendyk it gets even more flattering as a comparison.

I think Jeff Carter is another player with a similar history to Monahan prior to his trade for Columbus, and also landed a huge package.

Now, Monahan's injury history is starting to pile up. But, couldn't that be said of someone like Jack Eichel too? Monahan's injuries all seem to be spread out in different areas of his body. Good news that this isn't again in his wrists for example. If the surgery fixes him, he could still have a very productive career ahead. After all, he leads the flames in playoff points over his time with the flames:

The same wasn't true for Joe:


And Sean has 2 more GWG than Joe (these guys are pretty even.)


1. I want more respect for Sean Monahan's value to the team!

2. I want more respect for Sean Monahan's relative trade value.

[GioforPM]

Now that the injury has been revealed, maybe Monahan is a bigger piece of an Eichel trade, since they both require surgery.

[Lanny_McDonald]

From what I've read today, he should be exposed in the expansion draft and he wouldn't be picked up on waivers. Makes his value... non-existent.

In reality his contract is still quite good and if allowed to play his game will still be very effective. He's still a center that can finish and should attract a ton of interest should he hit the open market.

[Roof-Daddy]

Up until this short season I felt that Monahan had similar value to Matt Duchene prior to his first trade to Ottawa. Very similar production and age etc to Duchene at the time.

Now that we know this down season was partly due to injury I would hope his value is still fairly high and not nose dived completely.

[neo45]

He’ll still have some trade value. Trocheck trade is the closest recent comparable player that comes to mind

[Vinny01]

Monahan is not going to be part of the Eichel trade unless it is a 3 team deal. With some trade protection in place I have no doubt Buffalo is the top team on every players list. Sean is coming off some subpar seasons so I can’t see him accepting to go to a team where players have gone and struggled.

Monahan could be moved this summer but I just can’t see him being in the Eichel deal if the Flames can make it. We were talking about Monahan+1st+ for Dubois earlier in the season and that was before Monahan had his worst season of his career.

I think we need to be ready for Tkachuk going in any trade that gets the Flames Eichel.

I think Monahan should be retained because trading him now is just selling low

[Erick Estrada]

Matt Duchene is one of those players that's always been way overvalued by teams. Never been even a consistent 20 goal scorer. Hit the 70 point plateau just once but he's been traded twice for a total of three 1st round picks, a 3rd round pick, and four low range prospects and will make $100 million in salary when all is said and done. NHL GM's are so terrible.

[neo45]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Monahan is not going to be part of the Eichel trade unless it is a 3 team deal. With some trade protection in place I have no doubt Buffalo is the top team on every players list. Sean is coming off some subpar seasons so I can’t see him accepting to go to a team where players have gone and struggled.

Monahan could be moved this summer but I just can’t see him being in the Eichel deal if the Flames can make it. We were talking about Monahan+1st+ for Dubois earlier in the season and that was before Monahan had his worst season of his career.

I think we need to be ready for Tkachuk going in any trade that gets the Flames Eichel.

I think Monahan should be retained because trading him now is just selling low

A lot of Ontario players allow trades to Buffalo since it’s close to home for what it’s worth

And I don’t think anyone is suggesting Monahan would be the crown jewel in an Eichel trade. But if you’re bringing in 10M during a flat cap era there has to be multiple pieces going the other way

[Locke]

Originally Posted by New Era

From what I've read today, he should be exposed in the expansion draft and he wouldn't be picked up on waivers. Makes his value... non-existent.

In reality his contract is still quite good and if allowed to play his game will still be very effective. He's still a center that can finish and should attract a ton of interest should he hit the open market.

My main issue is that Monahan seems to be held together by Surgical Tape and Prayers.

He has major surgery nearly every off-season. Thats going to catch up with him eventually.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Monahan has plenty of value, but Nieuwy was a really special player, so I don't think that is a particularly good comp.

Funny thing is, that trade was panned by most Flames fan. If I recall correctly, they tried for Harvie and settled for Iginla. Iggy did have a coming out party that helped a ton, but at the time, it was a magic bean and a meh player in Millen.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by neo45

A lot of Ontario players allow trades to Buffalo since it’s close to home for what it’s worth

And I don’t think anyone is suggesting Monahan would be the crown jewel in an Eichel trade. But if you’re bringing in 10M during a flat cap era there has to be multiple pieces going the other way

Tkachuk makes $7M and is the only player that makes sense from a Buffalo perspective to be the centerpiece. I am not buying that living close to Ontario makes up for a player who has been part of a single series win in 8 years to go to a team that is in complete disarray and is trading their franchise player.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Matt Duchene is one of those players that's always been way overvalued by teams. Never been even a consistent 20 goal scorer. Hit the 70 point plateau just once but he's been traded twice for a total of three 1st round picks, a 3rd round pick, and four low range prospects and will make $100 million in salary when all is said and done. NHL GM's are so terrible.

Yeah he really cashed in on very limited high end play. His time with Ottawa ironically really set him up going forward.

[The Cobra]

Until Monny proves himself healthy and productive I can't imaging anyone is taking him in a trade.

All we know. is that Monny is having surgery on his hips. We really have no idea what that will entail.

Until that occurs, teams will assume that the Monny of last year is what they are getting.

[SuperMatt18]

Monahan hasn't been great the last two seasons now and that will hurt his value.

Overall since he entered the league he's 19th among NHL centers in scoring, and is still only 26 years old, so that will hold value.

But teams will look at the trend, and now his recent injury history, and that will create cause for concern.

Looking at his career season by season, and he was pretty consistent his first 6 seasons, with the peak coming in the 18-19 season.

13/14: Goals-22 (32nd) ; Points-34 (76th)
14/15: Goals - 31 (5th) ; Points - 62 (23rd)
15/16: Goals - 27 (18th); Points - 63 (13th)
16/17: Goals - 27 (15th); Points - 58 (25th)
17/18: Goals - 31 (16th); Points - 64 (27th)
18/19: Goals - 34 (15th); Points - 82 (12th)

Issue is the last two seasons have seen the steep decline:

19/20: Goals-22 (28th); Points - 48 (34th)
20/21: Goals -10 (72nd); Points - 28 (62nd)

So you're going to have to convince NHL GMs that the guy he was from 13/14 to 18/19 is the guy that they are still trading for. Easier said than done.

And it's easily forgotten now but he was a good OFFENSIVE center in those years.

From 13-14 to 18-19 he had:

Goals: 172 (7th among NHL centers)
Points: 363 (18th among NHL centers)

So if you're going to sell low you have to believe that he truly is done as a top 20 or so center in the NHL.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by New Era

From what I've read today, he should be exposed in the expansion draft and he wouldn't be picked up on waivers. Makes his value... non-existent.

In reality his contract is still quite good and if allowed to play his game will still be very effective. He's still a center that can finish and should attract a ton of interest should he hit the open market.

I’ve argued his contract really isn’t that bad if you look at comparably aged and production grew centres (even in this down year). It’s a tad high based on this year, but there’s a lot of non-injured centres producing the same in the $6-7M range. And if you eat 20% or so, it’s quite good, especially if he recovers well. Plus it’s only a 2 year risk for a team.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Monahan’s value will depend on who wants him. A team like Columbus seems desperate for a center, they’d probably offer a lot.

[bax]

To me Monahan is not untouchable, but I'm not giving him away either. I know his play this year wasn't great, but the hip surgery makes complete sense. I only move him if the upgrade at center is significant.

[Strange Brew]

With his salary, acquiring Monahan presents risk for other teams. Scorers who are 257th in goals/60 and making $6.3 million are not the kind of players that clubs go out of their way to acquire.

Now you can find plenty of other underperforming players, some with injury concerns at similar salary and it's someone like that you can expect to be offered in trade. Monahan is certainly tradeable, but you'll have to be willing to take on salary and risk in return.

[Geeoff]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Matt Duchene is one of those players that's always been way overvalued by teams. Never been even a consistent 20 goal scorer. Hit the 70 point plateau just once but he's been traded twice for a total of three 1st round picks, a 3rd round pick, and four low range prospects and will make $100 million in salary when all is said and done. NHL GM's are so terrible.

Yeah to me, Monahan is better than Matt Duchene, although Duchene is a flashier player, so maybe that's why he has spikes in value.

[Classic_Sniper]

I really really hope teams are so scared of Eichel’s potential neck surgery that it somehow flattens his trade value and the Flames and Sabres swing a deal for their respective injury prone centers.

I think the Flames are one elite second line away from being a solid team. Fix the RW slots as well throughout the line up and maybe they can be great.