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Old 03-19-2014, 10:23 PM   #1
GP_Matt
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So, any early predictions on who is going to throw their name into the ring?

I really liked Doug Griffiths during the last leadership race but think he may have shot himself in the foot with some of his tweets.

Gary Mar I think would have a tough hill to climb after all the money the government gave him when he left. I know that he was entitled to all the severance and it sounds like he earned it and performed well in the Asian envoy role but it will look bad coming after Redford to have a candidate who collected a huge severance package to ease his transition into his new role within the government.

Thomas Lukaszuk seems like he will throw his name in but he is pretty polarizing and I can see him being one of the front runners who forces the run off voters to pick the third place role.

Doug Horner sounds like he will be the interim leader which makes me think that he won't be a serious contender for the leadership. Don't parties normally put someone who isn't running in as the interim leader to give the candidates full freedom to campaign.

I have heard Stephen Mandel's name bandied about. Not sure how he would do outside of Edmonton though. He isn't well liked in the north because of the closing of the city centre airport. (I am not judging the decision, just commenting on his perception in the north)

Wayne Drysdale I am including as he has been rising pretty quickly within the party.

Who else have I missed? Any dark horses or people from outside the party?

I put this in a fresh thread so that the Redford thread can keep going with the sick days debate.
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Old 03-19-2014, 10:40 PM   #2
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One of the names tossed around in this article is Jim Prentice.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/po...375/story.html
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Old 03-19-2014, 10:48 PM   #3
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Jim Prentice would be interesting. It could steal a lot of support from the Wildrose, a lot of whom are involved with the Federal Conservative party.
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Old 03-19-2014, 10:51 PM   #4
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Judging by the past 2 leaders they elected, we should focus on who would finish in third.
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Old 03-19-2014, 10:52 PM   #5
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Jim Prentice had the opportunity to run two and a half years ago and he chose not too. I doubt he'll change his mind now, especially considering the party is in even more of a mess than it was then.
Same goes for Jim Dinning.
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Old 03-19-2014, 11:40 PM   #6
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Out of those I'd take Mandel in heartbeat. I'm not exactly a true-blue PC though.
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Old 03-20-2014, 12:50 AM   #7
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The real question might be - does it matter?
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Old 03-20-2014, 01:24 AM   #8
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Bunk, are you saying leadership is a non-issue? I don't understand what you mean.
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Old 03-20-2014, 06:07 AM   #9
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Earlier this week I was told by a person I dee, credible that Mandel will run. It had been estimated that it would happen in the fall though. Fundraising will not be a problem.

If he does he will win most of Edmonton's seats. Bad news for the Libs and WR in Edmonton.

His candidacy will be swayed by analysis of the Katz arena deal outside of Edmonton, and whether it was a fair deal for taxpayers. It will be a double edged sword for him. It plays well in Edmonton, but he will be hammered Iin Calgary for it.
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Old 03-20-2014, 07:18 AM   #10
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Quote:
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The real question might be - does it matter?
One can probably say without hyperbole that this is the most important leadership race in PCAA history, if not for any party in Alberta political history. There just doesn't seem to be any bombastic Klein-esque personalities around that can revitalize the party (save perhaps for Nenshi, who won't run). So who is available that can not only put a strong foot forward, but also heal the wide and deep divisions within the Conservatives? We're honestly looking at a party that started breaking apart in 2006. Is anyone capable of repairing this?
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Old 03-20-2014, 07:21 AM   #11
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I describe myself as a fiscal hawk, so McIver or Dinning would be my choices.
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Old 03-20-2014, 07:21 AM   #12
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I think Prentice is better suited to replace Harper, not Redford.
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Old 03-20-2014, 07:22 AM   #13
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Earlier this week I was told by a person I dee, credible that Mandel will run. It had been estimated that it would happen in the fall though. Fundraising will not be a problem.

If he does he will win most of Edmonton's seats. Bad news for the Libs and WR in Edmonton.

His candidacy will be swayed by analysis of the Katz arena deal outside of Edmonton, and whether it was a fair deal for taxpayers. It will be a double edged sword for him. It plays well in Edmonton, but he will be hammered Iin Calgary for it.
I wonder how well he would fare in Calgary if he supported an arena deal here too?

If Mandel were to get hammered in Calgary because of the Edmonton arena deal, then that would represent a significant problem for him. The Tories might take Edmonton, but if Calgary goes green, that would make rural Alberta the battleground for the throne. I'd probably put my money on Wildrose at that point.
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Old 03-20-2014, 07:46 AM   #14
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Judging by the past 2 leaders they elected, we should focus on who would finish in third.
The PCs changed their leadership vote structure so only the top 2 make it past the first vote to the runoff recently
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Old 03-20-2014, 07:46 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by Resolute 14 View Post
I wonder how well he would fare in Calgary if he supported an arena deal here too?

If Mandel were to get hammered in Calgary because of the Edmonton arena deal, then that would represent a significant problem for him. The Tories might take Edmonton, but if Calgary goes green, that would make rural Alberta the battleground for the throne. I'd probably put my money on Wildrose at that point.
The provincial government is in a tight spot with arena funding.
If they give too much support it will look like they are paying Katz back for contributing a third of the PC war chest in the last election.
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Old 03-20-2014, 07:48 AM   #16
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No doubt. They can't even really say "We're giving $50 million to both Calgary and Edmonton" to seem fair. They give a dollar to Edmonton's arena, and the opposition parties will be all over it.
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Old 03-20-2014, 08:22 AM   #17
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Quote:
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The PCs changed their leadership vote structure so only the top 2 make it past the first vote to the runoff recently
Yup. There won't be a third place candidate that can steal the race this year.

Also a few more names to add to the pool. Although a bunch of them seem very, very unlikely.

http://daveberta.ca/2014/03/8-candid...pc-leadership/

It'll be interesting to see if they lean towards recapturing the big tent theme or go more blue conservative.
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Old 03-20-2014, 08:44 AM   #18
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One can probably say without hyperbole that this is the most important leadership race in PCAA history, if not for any party in Alberta political history. There just doesn't seem to be any bombastic Klein-esque personalities around that can revitalize the party (save perhaps for Nenshi, who won't run). So who is available that can not only put a strong foot forward, but also heal the wide and deep divisions within the Conservatives? We're honestly looking at a party that started breaking apart in 2006. Is anyone capable of repairing this?
I think that there is a lot of wishful thinking going on, both in your position that its beyond repair, and in the idea that some of these people who could fix it are interested in the job! Nonetheless, here are people that I think could easily piece together a winning campaign for the PCAA in 2016...not an exhaustive list, just those who spring to mind:

- Jim Prentice
- Jim Dinning
- Stephen Mandel
- Gary Mar


I also think that there are interesting names like Donna Kennedy-Glans, who might be a bit of an outsider, but has a lot of connections and would be a formidable force. It just seems like its a bit early to write-off a government that had a huge majority just two years ago in favour of a rural-rump party. Lets be reasonable here; the Liberals were closer to forming government in the 90s than the Wild Rose is today. Sure, times have changed, but maybe the demise of the PCAA is a little exaggerated at this point.
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Old 03-20-2014, 08:52 AM   #19
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Jim Prentice! Yeah, he'd be great, but that's a pipe dream.

If we're throwing out dream candidates, I want Bret "The Hitman" Hart.

Realistically, we'll probably end up with someone boring like Doug Horner (I always get Doug Horner and Doug Griffiths mixed up - the one with the goatee).
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Old 03-20-2014, 08:55 AM   #20
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I would love to see a totally off the board candidate emerge and ideally win. PC's need a new direction and simply promoting an established party insider will feel like more of the same. But since they are effectively trying to "rebuild on the fly" ahead of the next election, they'll probably pick a very safe choice.
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