Real estate in Calgary - another bubble?

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by blankall

I don't think anyone is stating that no one wants a detached house. The importance of a detached home is clearly dropping. If 15% more of the population is not having children, that's pretty substantial. Another factor we should look it is how many families are having just one child? Just two? 3 or more? Once again, with 1 child, a townhouse becomes a lot more attractive, then if you have 3 or more children. Medium density housing can also be built around schools/daycare.

Also, I totally agree with people stating that Calgary is more likely to attract people for the purpose of having children because you can buy an affordable detached home. I know multiple people who moved out of Vancouver to Calgary, because homes were affordable.

It's not an all or nothing thing. You can build a bunch of townhouses near the core and still continue to build larger detached places in the suburbs. Calgary is a very quickly growing city, so they most likely need all types of development. My point is that Calgary should not make the same mistakes other cities in Canada have made and neglect to build medium density housing.

Is it really being neglected though? I am looking at a couple investments and hold land in South Calgary, Bankview and Mardaloop. All of these are seeing rowhouses, townhouses, and fourplexes on signal 50x120 parcels. I am looking at 2 projects right now - one a row housing development and one a four plex. Zoning and DP's are getting easier and easier.

I am talking 4 - 6 units on these that are functioning more like mini condo buildings. Calgary is doing a fine job of allowing for the zoning of these for R-CG and M-CG changes. The demand is there, not everyone wants to be out in the burbs.

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by Bunk

Yes, middle density from rowhouses, to townhouses to low and midrise apartments along collectors and main streets is a big thrust of Calgary's growth strategy. The lowest hanging fruit being the massive turnover of inner city corner lots to 4 unit rowhouses (some with basement suites). Tons of that happening. It really is a nice more affordable product than the traditional semi-detached.

We also have a few very large scale master planned communities like University District, or Currie (more expensive) that offer a lot of middle density type stuff.

Saville, Bella, Roundsquare, and many others have all done these exact projects in the last year. Corner 50x120/125 lots into row houses.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by blankall

Also, I totally agree with people stating that Calgary is more likely to attract people for the purpose of having children because you can buy an affordable detached home. I know multiple people who moved out of Vancouver to Calgary, because homes were affordable.

I had a client email me this morning about selling their downtown Vancouver condo and referring them to an agent to buy in Calgary.
I'm hearing about this more and more these days.

I'm seeing lots of people here now who can't even afford Langley or Surrey, so they're thinking what's the point of going out to Abbotsford or Mission next. Might as well go somewhere like Calgary at that point.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Leondros

Is it really being neglected though? I am looking at a couple investments and hold land in South Calgary, Bankview and Mardaloop. All of these are seeing rowhouses, townhouses, and fourplexes on signal 50x120 parcels. I am looking at 2 projects right now - one a row housing development and one a four plex. Zoning and DP's are getting easier and easier.

I am talking 4 - 6 units on these that are functioning more like mini condo buildings. Calgary is doing a fine job of allowing for the zoning of these for R-CG and M-CG changes. The demand is there, not everyone wants to be out in the burbs.

I actually think Calgary is making great strides forward. They do have to make up for a lot of past mistakes though (which is typical of almost all North American cities). Calgary still has lots of relatively cheap land in and around their core, which is unlike most cities its size. Basically, I don't think Calgary should let the opportunity to do the correct thing slip.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

I had a client email me this morning about selling their downtown Vancouver condo and referring them to an agent to buy in Calgary.
I'm hearing about this more and more these days.

I'm seeing lots of people here now who can't even afford Langley or Surrey, so they're thinking what's the point of going out to Abbotsford or Mission next. Might as well go somewhere like Calgary at that point.

You've just given us our new city slogan. "Calgary: not quite as bad as Abbotsford"

[Jordan!]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

You've just given us our new city slogan. "Calgary: not quite as bad as Abbotsford"

Yep, anywhere near the coast or driving distance>>>>>>>>>Calgary

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

I had a client email me this morning about selling their downtown Vancouver condo and referring them to an agent to buy in Calgary.
I'm hearing about this more and more these days.

I'm seeing lots of people here now who can't even afford Langley or Surrey, so they're thinking what's the point of going out to Abbotsford or Mission next. Might as well go somewhere like Calgary at that point.

Even other towns in BC are becoming unaffordable, places like Kelowna, Victoria, Penticton, Squamish, etc...And the province/municipalities are showing little desire/ability to fix the issue. Granted a significant cause of the problem is related to monetary and immigration issues, which are the responsibility of the federal government.

If I had the choice between even Surrey or Calgary, I'd go Calgary. For me, the major issue is commuting and relative closeness to amenities. An hour long commute totally kills any advantage that living in Vancouver provides.

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by blankall

I actually think Calgary is making great strides forward. They do have to make up for a lot of past mistakes though (which is typical of almost all North American cities). Calgary still has lots of relatively cheap land in and around their core, which is unlike most cities its size. Basically, I don't think Calgary should let the opportunity to do the correct thing slip.

Would be great if we could remediate the West side from all of the creosote. Lots of potential there as well.

[boogerz]

Originally Posted by accord1999

Most of the estimates I've seen are not that high. Slokker says 10-11K here:

https://slokker.com/usa/verve-east-v...lgary-alberta/

Other estimates are 11.5K in several years.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...ress-1.4888504

The actual East Village ARP says 13,700 residents

Originally Posted by accord1999

High density causes infrastructure to be much more expensive. And as for bang for the buck, I'm reminded of the City's attempts to close down the Inglewood and Beltline recreation centres because of lack of usage and high subsidies/user compared to the more suburban centres.

It's not that they are bad investments, but to show that the inner city does get substantial investment. And if $400M is peanuts, then the anti-sprawl folks should shut up about the cost of the so-called 14 new neighborhoods, which likely won't even cost that much City of Calgary tax support in total while housing many more new residents and businesses.

Source for the bolded text? It is most assuredly more cost effective to upgrade utilities and infrastructure, including municipal services like police/medical/fire, for high density in an existing area like East Village that takes up ~0.5 square kilometers of land than it is for a normally-sized low density suburb like Mahogany that takes up 12 times the land size and is 30km away from the city center.

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by accord1999

Most of the estimates I've seen are not that high. Slokker says 10-11K here:

https://slokker.com/usa/verve-east-v...lgary-alberta/

Other estimates are 11.5K in several years.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...ress-1.4888504

High density causes infrastructure to be much more expensive. And as for bang for the buck, I'm reminded of the City's attempts to close down the Inglewood and Beltline recreation centres because of lack of usage and high subsidies/user compared to the more suburban centres.


It's not that they are bad investments, but to show that the inner city does get substantial investment. And if $400M is peanuts, then the anti-sprawl folks should shut up about the cost of the so-called 14 new neighborhoods, which likely won't even cost that much City of Calgary tax support in total while housing many more new residents and businesses.

Are you associated or employed by one of the big builders in town or suppliers? Just curious if you have a bias here.

[Bunk]

I think it's fair to say that the rejuvenation of East Village benefits far beyond just the residents. It has a major city-wide value.

It's not a bad thing to say it's expensive, it is, but the downside of letting it continue to rot was also very severe.

There is also civic value to the enabling of growth, including overall housing affordability and choice.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by boogerz

Source for the bolded text? It is most assuredly more cost effective to upgrade utilities and infrastructure, including municipal services like police/medical/fire, for high density in an existing area like East Village that takes up ~0.5 square kilometers of land

I doubt it is for utilities, not when it's costing hundreds of millions of dollars just to find and relocate utilities for the Green Line in the downtown. Any time you need to touch them in the core is going to be brutally expensive.

And while it's a smaller area, that's countered by slower travel times and higher incidents per capita.The Calgary crime map shows 1135 policing incidents in the East Village vs 500 for Mahogany, or 1113 for fully built out McKenzie Towne.

https://data.calgary.ca/Health-and-S...-Map/n24v-9r86

And for fire, the downtown/beltline has three (albeit smallish) fire stations to serve it. New neighborhoods rely on stations in nearby older neighborhoods.

Originally Posted by Leondros

Are you associated or employed by one of the big builders in town or suppliers? Just curious if you have a bias here.

I'm not in the industry at all, but have a personal curiosity and interest in these areas.

[Finger Cookin]

I don't follow real estate that closely, but thanks to the OT Forum here on CP I know that a real estate bubble has been ready to burst here in Calgary for nigh on 25 years.

[DoubleF]

Originally Posted by blankall

Even other towns in BC are becoming unaffordable, places like Kelowna, Victoria, Penticton, Squamish, etc...And the province/municipalities are showing little desire/ability to fix the issue. Granted a significant cause of the problem is related to monetary and immigration issues, which are the responsibility of the federal government.

If I had the choice between even Surrey or Calgary, I'd go Calgary. For me, the major issue is commuting and relative closeness to amenities. An hour long commute totally kills any advantage that living in Vancouver provides.

Yeah, this one is a slightly funny one.

I have a lot of friends in Vancouver who lived in Calgary. Some of their friends became permanent WFH so they decided to move to Calgary to raise kids and work because they heard the cost of living and standard of living value was better. This based on suggestions by friends and they were totally clueless about general living in Calgary.

Some of the conversations I and my wife had with them were hilarious.

- What can I get for $800K?

Brand new infill in somewhere in the inner city.

- Is inner city less than a 40 minute commute to downtown?

Almost all of Calgary (including suburbs) is less than around a 40 minute commute by car to downtown during rush hour. This excluding Cochrane, Airdrie, Okotoks, Bragg Creek etc. But that's technically not Calgary.

- How about by bus?

Can you drive? Highly recommend driving vs bussing. By bus, I'd assume you double to triple the time via driving.

- How big is that infill in the inner city for $800K? Is it worth it?

I dunno. I'm guessing like 1600-1800 sq ft? Oh by the way, unlike BC we aren't playing the usable space card. 1600-1800 sq ft is more like 2400-2700 usable space because the basement sq ft isn't included. If you're both WFH and occasionally going back to Vancouver for meetings, why do you need to be close to down town?

- Whoa what? Where do you live? What's the commute like and what would be the cost of living where you are?

I live in the NW, 30+ year old reno'd home, 2 car garage, 3000+ sq ft of useable space, back yard, etc. 20-25 minutes commute to downtown, double that on a bad rush hour day, triple that perhaps in bad weather and rush hour.

Two communities over, $650K probably gets you into a house that's built within the last 10 years with at least 2 car garage, 2000 sq ft/3000 sq ft usable space. 30 ish minutes drive to downtown.

- WTF. That'd cost like 2-3 million here.

Yeah, but the weather sucks here in comparison. Weather I guess doesn't matter if you don't go outside and just stay at home though.

- Is it true you have to buy Canada Goose jackets to stay warm in Calgary?

No. But you had a $800K budget and seem to be more than happy with a $550-700K home in Calgary. That difference seems enough for you to buy your entire family jackets and 1-2 pretty nice cars and still have enough left over to go visit family/friends in Vancouver a few times a year...

- Oh ####. That's true!

[blankall]

Originally Posted by DoubleF

Yeah, this one is a slightly funny one.

I have a lot of friends in Vancouver who lived in Calgary. Some of their friends became permanent WFH so they decided to move to Calgary to raise kids and work because they heard the cost of living and standard of living value was better. This based on suggestions by friends and they were totally clueless about general living in Calgary.

Some of the conversations I and my wife had with them were hilarious.

- What can I get for $800K?

Brand new infill in somewhere in the inner city.

- Is inner city less than a 40 minute commute to downtown?

Almost all of Calgary (including suburbs) is less than around a 40 minute commute by car to downtown during rush hour. This excluding Cochrane, Airdrie, Okotoks, Bragg Creek etc. But that's technically not Calgary.

- How about by bus?

Can you drive? Highly recommend driving vs bussing. By bus, I'd assume you double to triple the time via driving.

- How big is that infill in the inner city for $800K? Is it worth it?

I dunno. I'm guessing like 1600-1800 sq ft? Oh by the way, unlike BC we aren't playing the usable space card. 1600-1800 sq ft is more like 2400-2700 usable space because the basement sq ft isn't included. If you're both WFH and occasionally going back to Vancouver for meetings, why do you need to be close to down town?

- Whoa what? Where do you live? What's the commute like and what would be the cost of living where you are?

I live in the NW, 30+ year old reno'd home, 2 car garage, 3000+ sq ft of useable space, back yard, etc. 20-25 minutes commute to downtown, double that on a bad rush hour day, triple that perhaps in bad weather and rush hour.

Two communities over, $650K probably gets you into a house that's built within the last 10 years with at least 2 car garage, 2000 sq ft/3000 sq ft usable space. 30 ish minutes drive to downtown.

- WTF. That'd cost like 2-3 million here.

Yeah, but the weather sucks here in comparison. Weather I guess doesn't matter if you don't go outside and just stay at home though.

- Is it true you have to buy Canada Goose jackets to stay warm in Calgary?

No. But you had a $800K budget and seem to be more than happy with a $550-700K home in Calgary. That difference seems enough for you to buy your entire family jackets and 1-2 pretty nice cars and still have enough left over to go visit family/friends in Vancouver a few times a year...

- Oh ####. That's true!

The biggest advantage to Vancouver's real estate is that once you get in, you make a crap load of money. I bought a tiny condo in Vancouver 10 years ago, and it's already gained more equity than my parent's detached home that they purchased 30 years ago in Calgary.

Obviously, he big ups also make you more susceptible to the big downs. I'm clearly biased, but with inflation the way it is and the supply of detached housing rapidly decreasing in Vancouver, I cannot see houses there going down long term.

When real estate becomes a commodity, the way it has in Vancouver, it really starts to choke the life out of the city. Lots of great businesses closing down. Lots of great people forced to leave.

To nitpick a bit, I disagree with any home being a 40 minute commute from downtown. I can speak from experience that McLeod Trail during rush hour was not 45 minutes door to door. Also a lot of people aren't just going downtown. Also, the supply of large and newish homes at under $650k, even in Calgary, is starting to dwindle quickly.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by blankall

The biggest advantage to Vancouver's real estate is that once you get in, you make a crap load of money. I bought a tiny condo in Vancouver 10 years ago, and it's already gained more equity than my parent's detached home that they purchased 30 years ago in Calgary.

Like they say in mutual fund ads, past performance is no guarantee of future results. I dont doubt what you say is true, but I strongly suspect a SFH in Calgary will perform better than a small condo in Vancouver going forward.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Like they say in mutual fund ads, past performance is no guarantee of future results. I dont doubt what you say is true, but I strongly suspect a SFH in Calgary will perform better than a small condo in Vancouver going forward.

In Vancouver, the whole city seems to be geared around maximizing real estate values. I actually think condos in Vancouver are about to spike up in value, as houses just did and condos typically follow detached houses.

I used to be on the Vancouver real estate is due for a reckoning bandwagon...but after observing how this city works for the last 15 or so years, my tune has changed. So many people taking out $250k equity from their houses to give their spawn down payments for condos. The small condos start at $600k now. My guess is that will go up to $800k by the summer.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by looooob

just splitting hairs at this point I guess (agree with your rectangle general observation) but some of the western edge communities just off bow trail (as opposed to Crestmont) are as close I would think as the Eastern edge. not sure where we are defining as city center, but I live right on the edge of the city and 12.5 km from "Calgary tower"

I really just google map eye-balled the furthest extend of the city in each direction.

Honestly I knew it was splitting hairs, but East Calgary is probably the best part of the city for commuting, in-spite of the other things it lacks. But generally I just like poking people who live in West Springs telling them Applewood is better, to watch them squirm.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by #-3

Actually if your concern is commute time, it's the East edge, Calgary is largely a rectangular shape and the east/west is just a much shorter commute in terms of distance

Distance by road to City Center.
East Hills ~15KM
Crestmont ~18KM
Evanston ~28KM
Legacy ~33KM

None of the areas really have roads that are all that much faster during rush hour.

Ah good. You left out the best part of Calgary.

[Weitz]

Downtown pricing is going to continue to crater (unless it’s a SFH) and no matter what council decides to pump money into your condos will still be a terrible investment.