The ongoing X and Elon Musk Transgressions Thread

[Looch City]

Lol read those and then imagine being a regular pleb simping for Elon. Just sad.

[Yamer]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I don’t know if it’s younger generations looking up to Elon Musk (depending on how old you are). His fanboys seem to consist of a lot of middle aged men who have accomplished little of value in their own lives and like to blame everything else for their failures while touting Elon as some special savant because he’s rich. Despite the yapping, they’re about as thin skinned and weak on actual beliefs as Elon is.

You don’t have to worry about them. The world already ate them up and spit them out. Younger generations will have no trouble stepping over them.

Originally Posted by BlackArcher101

I only base that on the younger reddit demographic and crypto bros that adopted him. I probably shouldn't make that general assumption I guess.

Worshipping a person like Musk is such a painfully cliche modern midlife crisis thing to do.

[photon]

"a grande", Ariana Grande?

[Locke]

Originally Posted by dobbles

Pretty sure if you want to crowd fund a private jet, you just need to become an evangelical preacher.

Its really tough to start a Tax-Based Religion these days though, I mean, granted, Scientology effectively did it, but the market is saturated!!

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by Yamer

Worshipping a person like Musk is such a painfully cliche modern midlife crisis thing to do.

Are you just going off of Red Deer’s demographics?

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

*grenade?

https://muskmessages.com/d/34.html

This is a good one to read in retrospect, Musk has used some of these ideas. Then Musk gets a little freaked out at the end.

Grande? I wouldn't even jump on a Tall for him.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

TSLA earns $3.62 per share. Auto stocks typically have P/Es of 6 - 8 X earnings. TSLA's is 48 X earnings. The question is why?

Tesla has been priced as a tech company (high P/E) and not an auto company, from the beginning. But should it be? Should it be, going forward, now that it is an auto company, nothing more, nothing less, and their technological advantages are evaporating?

Do you believe that their sales and earnings will continue to grow at a rapid enough rate to justify a P/E of 48X? Or, do you think the auto industry is catching up?

If we give TSLA a P/E of 8X, that puts the price at $29. At 10X, it is $36. Hell, even if you're willing to give it a P/E of 20X, that is $72.

I fail to see any reason why you would pay more than 20X earnings for it. IMO, the right number is more like 10X. I think it is a $30-40 stock.

Can it have a pop from here? Sure. Maybe it jumps from $150 to $180 when it finds some support. But I think the overall downtrend continues, and I think it's trading at more like 10X, a year or two from now. Maybe 20X

You're ignoring debt though, which is one thing that significantly differentiates Tesla from other auto companies and is a huge reason why they're valued more like a tech company (who tend to have lower debt).

A company with a $100B market cap and $200B in debt is effectively being valued similarly to a company with a $300B market cap and no debt. But just looking at P/E will show the latter company with a P/E that's 3x higher at a given earnings amount.

And that's basically the situation with car companies. Ford has a market cap of $52B, but they have $130B in debt. GM has a market cap of $55B, but $115B in debt. Volkswagen has an $84B market cap and $204B in debt. Meanwhile Tesla has a $474B market cap and only $6B in debt.

If you go by Enterprise Value (which considers cash and debt), then Tesla's value to earnings is only about 1.5-2X their competitors. Which I don't think is insanely out of line given their much faster earnings growth, their higher margins, and the fact that debt servicing costs have gotten significantly more expensive in the last 6 months (which will hurt the future earnings of high-debt companies).

The stock is still overpriced, but unless their sales or margins completely crater, I don't see how it would be a $30-40 stock.

[JohnnyB]

The comparison of Tesla to other major auto manufacturers also ignores that a core part of the value of what Tesla has developed is not the capacity to manufacture cars. It's the capacity to gather and analyze data and to train AI models built upon a massive data set they own that has taken years to build up. If they were just making cars, then a straight comparison to auto manufacturers would make sense, but manufacturing capacity and distribution of the vehicles themselves isn't what they're really competing on. They lose the competition on automotive manufacturing, but they're far ahead on the data and AI side of things, which is a business with a bright future and much higher margins.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

The comparison of Tesla to other major auto manufacturers also ignores that a core part of the value of what Tesla has developed is not the capacity to manufacture cars. It's the capacity to gather and analyze data and to train AI models built upon a massive data set they own that has taken years to build up. If they were just making cars, then a straight comparison to auto manufacturers would make sense, but manufacturing capacity and distribution of the vehicles themselves isn't what they're really competing on. They lose the competition on automotive manufacturing, but they're far ahead on the data and AI side of things, which is a business with a bright future and much higher margins.

I disagree with that. Their self driving "AI" isn't unique, and they've failed to deliver for years. I think you have it backwards, because their manufacturing advantages are what allows them to build cars for cheaper. The giga-press and one piece casting it allows for is a huge savings in costs. They also cost-reduce everything at the expense of convenience, which is why there are so few buttons. Buttons cost money. That being said, I don't think they have any advantage that is long lasting or won't be duplicated by competitors, which makes me wonder where the long term value is. And please don't say self driving....

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I disagree with that. Their self driving "AI" isn't unique, and they've failed to deliver for years. I think you have it backwards, because their manufacturing advantages are what allows them to build cars for cheaper. The giga-press and one piece casting it allows for is a huge savings in costs. They also cost-reduce everything at the expense of convenience, which is why there are so few buttons. Buttons cost money. That being said, I don't think they have any advantage that is long lasting or won't be duplicated by competitors, which makes me wonder where the long term value is. And please don't say self driving....

It's what gives them, or has given them, more speculative value. With the traditional auto manufacturers, you know what their business is and exactly how to value it. Innovative tech is naturally more forward looking and speculative based on potential future value of as yet unrealized revenue streams. They are still pioneering in these areas.

[Fuzz]

Every major automaker has their own automated features though. Tesla may be ahead because they chose to make their beta releases public, but I don't think it puts them in some innovative space that no one else can compete in. You are arguing for a perceived future value advantage, I'm arguing that it doesn't really exist. And I'm not sure other automakers are currently being sued for failing to deliver on over-promising.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Every major automaker has their own automated features though. Tesla may be ahead because they chose to make their beta releases public, but I don't think it puts them in some innovative space that no one else can compete in. You are arguing for a perceived future value advantage, I'm arguing that it doesn't really exist. And I'm not sure other automakers are currently being sued for failing to deliver on over-promising.

I'm not making an argument about fundamental value. I'm just saying how they're valued by the markets, which is about more or less speculative expected returns.

To suggest that traditional auto manufacturers are going to compete with tech companies on tech is silly though. They have organizational cultures with deep roots. Tigers don't just change their stripes to spots and start keeping up with cheetahs.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

I'm not making an argument about fundamental value. I'm just saying how they're valued by the markets, which is about more or less speculative expected returns.

To suggest that traditional auto manufacturers are going to compete with tech companies on tech is silly though. They have organizational cultures with deep roots. Tigers don't just change their stripes to spots and start keeping up with cheetahs.

This weird thing where people say Tesla isn't a car company is baffling. They are a car company and always have been. They make cars. Cars require tech. ICE's have incredibly complicated programming to run as they do these days. That doesn't make Ford a tech company any more than Tesla is. It's just a thing people say when they can't come up wit a real justification for the share value, because there isn't one beyond the self-perpetuating myth.

And are you saying Volvo, Mercedes, Ford and GM's efforts on driver assistants features are all a technical and cultural impossibility, despite experts in the field saying they often perform better than Tesla? I think that's total nonsense. This companies have decades of experience pivoting to new challenges.

[photon]

Who designed the new Twitter Blue logo?

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I disagree with that. Their self driving "AI" isn't unique, and they've failed to deliver for years. I think you have it backwards, because their manufacturing advantages are what allows them to build cars for cheaper. The giga-press and one piece casting it allows for is a huge savings in costs. They also cost-reduce everything at the expense of convenience, which is why there are so few buttons. Buttons cost money. That being said, I don't think they have any advantage that is long lasting or won't be duplicated by competitors, which makes me wonder where the long term value is. And please don't say self driving....

I think it's inevitable at this point that Tesla gets bought out within the next 5-10 years. Elon is a trainwreck and is doing active damage to the brand, other automakers have caught up and surpassed Tesla in the EV space in many ways, and the company has appeared to hit a wall. No new cars in development, the truck appears to be vaporware, and self-driving isn't happening anytime soon. I just don't see how they survive independently once all of the big makers go all-in on EVs

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by photon

Who designed the new Twitter Blue logo?

Strong “Time Crisis” vibes.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by photon

who designed the new twitter blue logo?

1997?

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I disagree with that. Their self driving "AI" isn't unique, and they've failed to deliver for years. I think you have it backwards, because their manufacturing advantages are what allows them to build cars for cheaper. The giga-press and one piece casting it allows for is a huge savings in costs. They also cost-reduce everything at the expense of convenience, which is why there are so few buttons. Buttons cost money. That being said, I don't think they have any advantage that is long lasting or won't be duplicated by competitors, which makes me wonder where the long term value is. And please don't say self driving....

FSD may finally improve as Tesla finally admitted that removing radar was a mistake and will be adding radar back in 2023. Kind of screws over all the people that are driving Tesla's without radar as they will never get FSD.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by photon

Who designed the new Twitter Blue logo?

I remember seeing this on NHL boards in the 80s. Right between the Ford and Imperial logos. Good times.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

FSD may finally improve as Tesla finally admitted that removing radar was a mistake and will be adding radar back in 2023. Kind of screws over all the people that are driving Tesla's without radar as they will never get FSD.

Some of them paid $15k for it, feels like there is room in that $15k to refit bumpers with sensors. Otherwise there will just be more lawsuits.