[PGT] Calgary 1 Chicago 3

[FBI]

OK I think this was the one that gets us all 3 upgrades:

1. Vegas beats Edmonton Round 1 (positive on so many levels…)
2. Vancouver beats Vegas Round 2
3. Dallas beats Vancouver Round 3

[Jason14h]

But getting a higher Vancouver pick by them losing in R1 is probably better then the extra picks and lower 1st rounder

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

It was not 20 games in December, it was 13, and it was more like 24 games in Jan/Feb, if you want to count.

And yes, the one point in December was more an outlier than the other months.

So what's your take on this, Huberdeau is a 60 point guy because we should ignore a basically scoreless December and all of last year?

Huberdeau has been a low 50 point guy for most of two seasons. That's who he is likely is .

I assume we ignore his March pace of 50 odd points as well?

Even if he is a 60 point guy, a 60 point guy taking up 18-20 minutes a night with premium PP time spells for a very bad team. We need better production than that. Until Calgary finds that better production, they are what you basically see now.

[blankall]

Twas' a fine loss boys. I'm now officially happy with the losses. Seems to be a considerable difference between #8 overall and #12 in the draft, plus there's still an outside chance of a top 5 pick.

I find these game pretty entertaining, even though they are losing. It's good to see the Zary line coming along. I like Wolf (even though he didn't play last night)

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Even if he is a 60 point guy, a 60 point guy taking up 18-20 minutes a night with premium PP time spells for a very bad team. We need better production than that. Until Calgary finds that better production, they are what you basically see now.

They should start giving someone else the minutes. He's been given all the opportunity in the world and it's not like someone is going to trade for him and you need to showcase. If people really want to treat him as a sunk cost then kick him out of the lineup if he doesn't play well, what difference does it make. Now it's his time to earn the minutes back.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

If the Nucks make the conference final, the 4th becomes a 3rd, but the 1st slots in at 29-32

I would rather the Nucks go to #### from here and the 1st be 25th, leaving the 4th a 4th (where we probably take the same player anyway)

If the Canucks win the division but lose early in the playoffs, they stand a good chance of being the best team eliminated. That would make their pick #28. It only goes higher if another division winner, which was better than the Canucks in the regular season, also fails to make the conference finals.

I'd much rather have the #29 pick and a 3rd than #28 and a 4th.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

If the Canucks win the division but lose early in the playoffs, they stand a good chance of being the best team eliminated. That would make their pick #28. It only goes higher if another division winner, which was better than the Canucks in the regular season, also fails to make the conference finals.

I'd much rather have the #29 pick and a 3rd than #28 and a 4th.

Even if it's o ly a couple spots, that's better than a 4th to 3rd. Plus, it could turn into several spots.

Would you trade the 28th pick and a 4th for the 30th and a 3rd? I wouldn't. And if the difference was more than 2 spots, I definitely wouldn't.

[GranteedEV]

Connor Bedard has more value than the entire Flames roster combined

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Even if it's o ly a couple spots, that's better than a 4th to 3rd. Plus, it could turn into several spots.

A whole bunch of upsets would have to happen in the playoffs for that to be the case.

Would you trade the 28th pick and a 4th for the 30th and a 3rd? I wouldn't. And if the difference was more than 2 spots, I definitely wouldn't.

I just pulled these pick values from Sound of Hockey, showing the historical trade values of NHL picks:

28th pick in 1st round: 158.84
28th pick in 4th round: 5.40
Total: 164.24

29th pick in 1st round: 151.85
29th pick in 3rd round: 15.26
Total: 167.11

30th pick in 1st round: 145.17
30th pick in 3rd round: 14.83
Total: 160.00

At the moment, the Canucks are 2nd in the league by win percentage. If that stands up, they will draft no higher than 27th, and that only if the Rangers also fail to make the conference finals. If the Rangers make the conference finals, they will get a bottom-four pick and the Canucks will be left at 28th.

The difference between 28th and 29th is not worth the difference between a 3rd and a 4th – especially to a team like the Flames, which has a good record of finding useful players in the middle rounds of the draft.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Connor Bedard has more value than the entire Flames roster combined

By what measure?

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

A whole bunch of upsets would have to happen in the playoffs for that to be the case.



I just pulled these pick values from Sound of Hockey, showing the historical trade values of NHL picks:

28th pick in 1st round: 158.84
28th pick in 4th round: 5.40
Total: 164.24

29th pick in 1st round: 151.85
29th pick in 3rd round: 15.26
Total: 167.11

30th pick in 1st round: 145.17
30th pick in 2nd round: 14.83
Total: 160.00

At the moment, the Canucks are 2nd in the league by win percentage. If that stands up, they will draft no higher than 27th, and that only if the Rangers also fail to make the conference finals. If the Rangers make the conference finals, they will get a bottom-four pick and the Canucks will be left at 28th.

The difference between 28th and 29th is not worth the difference between a 3rd and a 4th – especially to a team like the Flames, which has a good record of finding useful players in the middle rounds of the draft.

This is clearly wrong.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by butterfly

This is clearly wrong.

Brain fart. I meant to type 3rd in both. Now corrected.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Brain fart. I meant to type 3rd in both. Now corrected.

Got it. Well, moving down 1 is slightly better and moving down 2 is slightly worse. I'll take my chances one way or the other and enjoy cheering for Vancouver losing.

[butterfly]

Actually, according to that table, the only time this makes sense is if you move down exactly one spot late in the 1st round.

Which, for the sake of this argument, cannot happen. Moving from 28 to 29 would require Vancouver to win the President's Trophy, lose in the 3rd round, and the other 3rd round loser would somehow need more regular season points; an impossibility.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Actually, according to that table, the only time this makes sense is if you move down exactly one spot late in the 1st round.

Which, for the sake of this argument, cannot happen. Moving from 28 to 29 would require Vancouver to win the President's Trophy, lose in the 3rd round, and the other 3rd round loser would somehow need more regular season points; an impossibility.

Actually, that isn't impossible. You don't need to win the Presidents' Trophy to draft 28th. You just have to finish ahead of all the teams that did not make the conference finals. If the Presidents' Trophy winner wins two playoff rounds, that team will draft no higher than 29th.

If all four division winners make the conference finals, you can even draft 28th without winning your division.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Actually, that isn't impossible. You don't need to win the Presidents' Trophy to draft 28th. You just have to finish ahead of all the teams that did not make the conference finals. If the Presidents' Trophy winner wins two playoff rounds, that team will draft no higher than 29th.

If all four division winners make the conference finals, you can even draft 28th without winning your division.

Then how do you move from 28th to 29th after the regular season is over?

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Then how do you move from 28th to 29th after the regular season is over?

If you were originally 28th, then you finished 5th in the standings. You would move to 29th by making it to round three, while the other 3 teams remaining would have been ahead of you in the standings.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

If you were originally 28th, then you finished 5th in the standings. You would move to 29th by making it to round three, while the other 3 teams remaining would have been ahead of you in the standings.

The four division winners get the four worst picks (32-29), unless they don't make the 3rd round, then they get reverse ranked from 28-25 (28 if one doesn't make it, all the way to 25 if they all don't make it).

So according to the chart Jay Random posted, and assuming Vancouver wins the Pacific Division, hoping Vancouver makes the conference finals for the 3rd round pick does not make sense for us.

Edit: Just thought of an edge case: Vancouver is the worst division winner, and the other three have already all made the conference finals.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

A whole bunch of upsets would have to happen in the playoffs for that to be the case.



I just pulled these pick values from Sound of Hockey, showing the historical trade values of NHL picks:

28th pick in 1st round: 158.84
28th pick in 4th round: 5.40
Total: 164.24

29th pick in 1st round: 151.85
29th pick in 3rd round: 15.26
Total: 167.11

30th pick in 1st round: 145.17
30th pick in 3rd round: 14.83
Total: 160.00

At the moment, the Canucks are 2nd in the league by win percentage. If that stands up, they will draft no higher than 27th, and that only if the Rangers also fail to make the conference finals. If the Rangers make the conference finals, they will get a bottom-four pick and the Canucks will be left at 28th.

The difference between 28th and 29th is not worth the difference between a 3rd and a 4th – especially to a team like the Flames, which has a good record of finding useful players in the middle rounds of the draft.

I never argued for 1 spot, I said 2. And anything more than 2 is a big win.

As for them finishing 1st overall, it's pretty much a dead heat right now. Worst of the 1sts is only a tiny slump away

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Then how do you move from 28th to 29th after the regular season is over?

By making the conference finals.

The four teams in the conference finals draft 29th to 32nd.

Each division winner (regular season) that did not make the conference finals drafts one position before that. So if one division winner misses the conference finals, that team drafts 28th. If all four division winners fail to make the conference finals (which has occasionally happened), they draft 25th through 28th, in reverse order of standings.

Take the standings as they are at present, and project them to the end of the season. The only team ahead of Vancouver in winning percentage is the Rangers.

• If the Canucks and Rangers both make the third round, they will draft somewhere from 29th to 32nd.
• If the Canucks and Rangers both fail to make the third round, the Canucks will draft 27th and the Rangers 28th.
• If the Rangers make the third round and the Canucks don't, the Rangers will draft somewhere from 30th to 32nd, and the Canucks 28th.

It's a needlessly complicated system, but there you are.