Calgary Real Estate predictions? - Page 116 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Red · 09-26-2012, 09:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slava

Well I think that you've answered your own question here about how we are different at this point. Another major point to consider is that unemployment here is lower than it is elsewhere in the country, which in turn means that people are coming to Calgary and Alberta in general to find employment.

I do have to laugh at a couple of the points that you brought up as being similar though. Has Calgary been experiencing "unreal growth in the last few years"? I wouldn't say that. Are "speculation and greed driving the market" here? I wouldn't say that either. In Calgary what we have seen is a fairly natural correction after the boom until 2008. From the low point we have seen a gradual inflation of the housing prices. Speculators are potentially involved, but its hardly what we've seen in Toronto in the condo market in particular or in Vancouver.

So Toronto and Vancouver had a spike in layoffs and lower immigration in the last 6 months?
From what I understand, nothing changed locally in Tor and Van that would make the RE market vulnerable.

Slava · 09-26-2012, 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red

So Toronto and Vancouver had a spike in layoffs and lower immigration in the last 6 months?
From what I understand, nothing changed locally in Tor and Van that would make the RE market vulnerable.

What about in the past five years? Have the markets between these three cities been the exact same?

kevman · 09-26-2012, 09:40 AM

Quote:

“Don’t talk about religion or politics” has been a long standing rule of small talk etiquette because of their touchy nature. Perhaps it’s time to add “real estate” to the list. Opinions on the market are varied and even heated, more so when ones livelihood or financial health is involved.

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2...o-you-believe/

Red · 09-26-2012, 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slava

What about in the past five years? Have the markets between these three cities been the exact same?

That I am not sure of. But it is kind of irrelevant since all 3 had booming RE during the same time.

Now something changed in Tor and Van. I think it's the new mortgage/HELOC rules and higher bank scrutiny. But that would surely hit us as well, no? If not then why?

I think it's the unusually low inventory. Thoughts?

Red · 09-26-2012, 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kevman

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2...o-you-believe/

True that. Lot's of emotions and money behind RE.

Slava · 09-26-2012, 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red

That I am not sure off. But it is kind of irrelevant since all 3 had booming RE.

Now something changed in Tor and Van. I think it's the new mortgage/HELOC rules and higher bank scrutiny. But that would surely hit us as well, no? If not then why?

I think it's the unusually low inventory. Thoughts?

Well that's just it. The story is longer than just the last 6 months. The markets haven't moved in sync for the past five years and they were starting from different points with different factors. You can't just extrapolate the experiences of one market and say that the same thing should happen to the others. This is basically what people have said for years about the US/Canada relationship and pretty clearly things over the past five years have shown that not to be the case.

fundmark19 · 09-26-2012, 09:58 AM

Rental Market is hot right now. Rented my single family home for 100 over asking price and we just raised our 2 bedroom condo in the suburbs from 1350 to 1500. Life is good for another year!

Red · 09-26-2012, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slava

Well that's just it. The story is longer than just the last 6 months. The markets haven't moved in sync for the past five years and they were starting from different points with different factors. You can't just extrapolate the experiences of one market and say that the same thing should happen to the others. This is basically what people have said for years about the US/Canada relationship and pretty clearly things over the past five years have shown that not to be the case.

That's not really true though. They all started to explode around 05.

Red · 09-26-2012, 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fundmark19

Rental Market is hot right now. Rented my single family home for 100 over asking price and we just raised our 2 bedroom condo in the suburbs from 1350 to 1500. Life is good for another year!

In Toronto the bidding wars have moved from resale RE to rentals. Very strong rental market there.

Rents are too cheap in relation to RE prices.

Suave · 09-26-2012, 10:09 AM

One of the reasons why we are different. From RBC housing report

SportsJunky · 09-26-2012, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red

That's not really true though. They all started to explode around 05.

He said 5 years. 2005 was 7 years ago.

Red · 09-26-2012, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SportsJunky

He said 5 years. 2005 was 7 years ago.

and?

SportsJunky · 09-26-2012, 10:23 AM

You said his statement wasn't true and then you gave an example that had nothing to do with the timeline he referenced. Just pointing it out.

Red · 09-26-2012, 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SportsJunky

You said his statement wasn't true and then you gave an example that had nothing to do with the timeline he referenced. Just pointing it out.

2005 - 2012 includes last 5 years. Can we move on?

Red · 09-26-2012, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Suave

One of the reasons why we are different. From RBC housing report

Calgary definitely has more affordable housing. As it should, being a smaller prairie city.
This RBC affordability report has been questioned for its validity though. They have some assumptions there that are quite far from reality (25% average downpayment etc.)

Red · 09-26-2012, 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kevman

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2...o-you-believe/

Ha ha, just read this. Nice read for those that don't follow the market closely.

chemgear · 09-26-2012, 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kevman

“Don’t talk about religion or politics” has been a long standing rule of small talk etiquette because of their touchy nature. Perhaps it’s time to add “real estate” to the list. Opinions on the market are varied and even heated, more so when ones livelihood or financial health is involved.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red

True that. Lot's of emotions and money behind RE.

Indeed, I think it's always good (and interesting) to see what other people think and are seeing in a given situation/market. You can't read every article or statistic out there and the education from other viewpoints is always nice. I certainly like the thread for that and the discussion back and forth.

I am glad that thread has mostly (and long since) turned away from the personal attacks/name calling when I originally joined the forum and thread.

I'd hate to see this turn into the iPhone vs. Android thread.

username · 09-26-2012, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red

Calgary definitely has more affordable housing. As it should, being a smaller prairie city.

This doesn't make sense? Why should homes in Calgary be mroe affordable because it's a smaller prairie city?

Red · 09-26-2012, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by username

This doesn't make sense? Why should homes in Calgary be mroe affordable because it's a smaller prairie city?

Because Calgary doesn't offer much outside of jobs. Places like Toronto and Vancouver are much more desirable (as much as we hate to admit it) because of their geography. Pretty much why they are so heavily populated.

chemgear · 09-26-2012, 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fotze

Cause you stopped being a jerk.

But I was young, naive, and new to the forum.

Seriously though, I hope I wasn't "that" bad/an outright jerk. Certainly not my intention.