[Trade] Toronto trades Kasperi Kapanen to Pittsburgh

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

If we had Crosy and Malkin instead of Monahan and Gaudreau, who won us 3 cups in the last 10ish years, and they are getting to their mid 30's, I'm pretty sure most Flames fans would still be ok with the organization mortgaging futures for another few shots at the cup before their window closes.

That's the luxury a team like the Pens have. They can be garbage for 10 years after Crosby and Malkin retire, and they'd be ok with it because they've won championships.

Also being garbage is how they got Crosby and Malkin in the first place.

The Flames have never quite figured that part out.

[Toonage]

Patience is very difficult for Canadian teams. It looked like Toronto understood what it would take, and they drafted Matthews because of it. But then they too, like the rest, got ahead of themselves.

They all do it. Wonder why Canada doesn't and likely won't have a cup champion anytime soon? There you go.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Also being garbage is how they got Crosby and Malkin in the first place.

The Flames have never quite figured that part out.

You have to be double lucky though.

1. You have to be garbage at the right time when there are actually good players at the top of the draft like Crosby and Malkin and not Nugent Hopkins and Yakupov

2. You have to still win lotteries

[Erick Estrada]

I understand why the Penguins are trying to reload while they have two HOF players with gas left in the tank. That said I don't think Kapanen is great value for what they gave up. Yes he's signed to a decent salary but like most Leafs he's a little overrated. I think he will likely put up career numbers alongside Crosby but so would any decently skilled forward. I admire that they aren't scared to make moves like this but I don't think he's going to be a difference maker for them. This is a massive win for the Leafs getting a 1s round pick for a bottom six forward.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

They can be garbage for 10 years after Crosby and Malkin retire, and they'd be ok with it because they've won championships.

How many years post-championship can you justify being garbage?

Asking for a fanbase.

[Poe969]

35-40ish

[Table 5]

Phew, we're good.

[bubbsy]

if anything, doesn't this kind of establish value for Gaudreau? If Kapanen gets you 15th overall, Gaudreau should be able to get us at least the sabres or NJ top10 picks.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Makes sense for both teams IMO.



Kapanen may or may not end up being the better player than what the 15th overall player may end up becoming, but he will help now while Crosby and Malkin are still playing.


Toronto cuts cap and has a nice trade-chip - better currency right now, especially with Covid and the uncertainty that it brings.



Really smart trade by both sides.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

You have to be double lucky though.

1. You have to be garbage at the right time when there are actually good players at the top of the draft like Crosby and Malkin and not Nugent Hopkins and Yakupov

2. You have to still win lotteries

Yes, definitely you have to be lucky.

But you also have to be good. Like passing on Puju for Dubois.

What's more lucky though, walking away with a great player picking top 3 or walking away with a great player trading down from the 14th overall pick to pick #24?

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Also being garbage is how they got Crosby and Malkin in the first place.

The Flames have never quite figured that part out.

Let's not forget they also had to be incredibly lucky to win the Crosby lottery. Yes they were one of 4 teams that had 3 balls, but they still were incredibly lucky to win it.

[codynw]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Let's not forget they also had to be incredibly lucky to win the Crosby lottery. Yes they were one of 4 teams that had 3 balls, but they still were incredibly lucky to win it.

Rigged.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

Kapanen may or may not end up being the better player than what the 15th overall player may end up becoming, but he will help now while Crosby and Malkin are still playing.

Playing with Crosby/Malkin will probably also inflate the guy's numbers...so when it's time to blow it up, or if you decide to trade him in the meantime, he'll probably have better stats to work with.

[dino7c]

Every team in the NHL had a shot in the Crosby lottery. Calgary had 2 balls in.

Pens won with a 6% chance it wasn't shrewd tanking

[Love]

Kapanen goes for a 15th overall pick and we minimize the value of our players on here. Gaudreau or Monahan would command ransoms

[AC]

Originally Posted by Love

Kapanen goes for a 15th overall pick and we minimize the value of our players on here. Gaudreau or Monahan would command ransoms

Originally Posted by Love

Buyout Monahan if you must. Need him gone expeditiously

Hmm...

[powderjunkie]

This makes all the sense in the world to me for PIT.
The most important thing is to exploit the Crosby/Malkin wndow. Secondarily, it's having assets that may return decent futures whenever the window closes (or even in a single off year).

98% chance Kapanen delivers more value over the next ~4 years than the 15OA pick.
~60% chance Kapanen returns more futures than the 15OA pick if traded in the next 3-5 years.

Players drafted #12-20 from 2014-18 that have produced quickly:

14 Farabee D+2 (ie. started producing for the Flyers in his D+2 season)

12 Necas D+3
13 Suzuki D+3
20 Thomas D+2

14 McAvoy D+2
15 Kunin D+3 (really D+4 for good production)
16 Chychrun D+1

12 Gurianov D+5
14 Debrusk D+3
16 Barzal D+3
17 Connor D+3
18 Chabot D+3
20 Eriksson Ek D+3

12 Perlini D+3
13 Vrana D+4
15 Larkin D+2
17 Sanheim D+4 (really D+5)
18 Tuch D+4
19 Deangelo D+3-5
20 Schmaltz D+3-4

Of the 45 players in those slots, 14 started producing fairly well within 3 years of being drafter (31%), but only 4 of them within 2 years (9%), which is what PIT really needs.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Let's not forget they also had to be incredibly lucky to win the Crosby lottery. Yes they were one of 4 teams that had 3 balls, but they still were incredibly lucky to win it.

Right, but they were only in a position to be lucky because they were bad.

The 2015 playoffs were great and all but maybe the Flames should've committed to being terrible that year to try to get into the McDavid lottery?

The key is that the Penguins were bad for years, just like the hawks and kings, they didn't signal rebuild over after picking Ryan Whitney 5th overall.

Between 2001 and 2006 Pittsburgh gave up the following picks: 6th round, 4th round, 5th round, a 7th and a couple of 9th round picks. They gave up a 2nd round pick and a player in addition to 3rd overall to move up to draft MAF 1st overall.

They took back multiple picks over that span, a lot more and better picks than what they gave up, including the 2nd round pick they used to get goligoski and a 3rd round pick from the Flames for Ference.

In 2006 with Crosby scoring 102 points they traded AWAY mark recchi at the deadline.

I don't think the Penguins traded away a 1st round pick for more than a decade in a row until deadline day 2007 when they finished the season with 105 points.

[Classic_Sniper]

Possibly good move for both sides. Rutherford has had recent success finding wingers for Crosby and Malkin while Dubas gets much needed cap space, a 1st rounder that they didn’t have and a recent second rounder with upside.

[Flash Walken]

In the last 10 years (2009-2019), The Penguins have drafted 7 times in the first round.
In the last 10 years (2009-2019) the Flames have drafted 10 times in the first round.

In the last 10 years (2009-2019) the Penguins have drafted 25 times in the top 3 rounds.
In the last 10 years (2009-2019) The Flames have drafted 27 times in the top 3 rounds.

Over that same time frame the Penguins have advanced past the 1st round 7 times and won the stanley cup 3 times, qualifying for the post season every year.

Over that same time frame the Flames have made the playoffs 3 times and advanced out of the 1st round one time, qualifying for the playoffs just 3 times. No Championships.

That difference in picks isn't even ####ing close to what it should be given the trajectory of each franchise over the last decade.

The Flames are NEVER going to win with this strategy and the evidence to affirm this is them never ####ing winning anything.