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Old 09-10-2019, 12:15 PM   #1381
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Exactly. June 2020 is where the rankings will be used to determine the top 6, and although that feels like a long time from now, in international soccer, that's right around the corner.
Right now Canada sits in 8th with 1317 points. Ahead of us are Curacao at 1321, El Salvador at 1347 and Honduras at 1347. We need to pass at least 2 of those. Behind us are Panama at 1316 and Haiti at 1276.

The good news for Canada is that Panama has 2 games coming up against Mexico on the dates where we play the US. Curacao and Haiti play each other today and then each have two games against Costa Rica. Lots of chances for those teams to drop which leaves us with El Salvador and Honduras.

That's the bad news.

Honduras plays a friendly with Chile today then has Trinidad & Tobago in the Nations League (plus 2 games against Martinique which won't count). T&T isn't very good at the moment so I'm not sure we can count on help there.

El Salvador has a match with Dominican Republic today which they should win easily followed by four more Nations League matches against Montserrat (twice), Saint Lucia and another with the Dominican Republic. That is a lot of points they are likely to gain and is why Canada needs to get at least a win and a tie with the US and probably needs to win both.
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Old 09-10-2019, 12:17 PM   #1382
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And if we want to get really technical, within the ranking calculation, FIFA has a modifier for the "importance" of matches in the formula.

If Canada were to somehow beat the USA (let's not kid ourselves, this is a big task), the benefits would be twofold: The ranking points earned for the matches themselves, but also advancing to the play-off phase of the nations league, in which the matches are weighted heavier on "importance" than the group phase. So a few more chances to earn some more ranking points.

Either way, it will be interesting to see how the CSA books the calendar of friendlies in the coming months. Friendlies can also earn points, but at a lower level of importance.

These Concacaf Nations League matches, including avoiding a choke tonight, are more important than a lot of people realize. The implications will be felt all the way through the 2022 World Cup.
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Old 09-10-2019, 12:23 PM   #1383
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Games to watch tonight.

Cuba- Canada obviously.

Dom. Rep. - El Salvador

Haiti - Curacao
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Old 09-10-2019, 12:29 PM   #1384
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Originally Posted by Bill Bumface View Post
I never watch anything live, and also find this a huge annoyance. I don't know if you've noticed, but if you check the schedule for the "Live" channel, they will often replay games later that night. Sometimes way too late.

On Saturday, I think they replayed it at 830pm (which is when I watched it). Tonight it starts at 745pm.
Thanks - I have noticed the replay before. 7:45 still not ideal, but better than live!

It is nice to know I've got a comrade in this. To non-timeshifters it may seem like a trivial thing, but there is something special about avoiding the score, getting the kid in bed, pouring a glass of wine, heading downstairs to the cozy room with the good TV, and watching a match on my terms.
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Old 09-10-2019, 12:34 PM   #1385
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Originally Posted by Jimmy Stang View Post
And if we want to get really technical, within the ranking calculation, FIFA has a modifier for the "importance" of matches in the formula.

If Canada were to somehow beat the USA (let's not kid ourselves, this is a big task), the benefits would be twofold: The ranking points earned for the matches themselves, but also advancing to the play-off phase of the nations league, in which the matches are weighted heavier on "importance" than the group phase. So a few more chances to earn some more ranking points.

Either way, it will be interesting to see how the CSA books the calendar of friendlies in the coming months. Friendlies can also earn points, but at a lower level of importance.

These Concacaf Nations League matches, including avoiding a choke tonight, are more important than a lot of people realize. The implications will be felt all the way through the 2022 World Cup.
Unfortunately the playoff stage isn't until June 2020 which I think may be too late. I did see an article where Herdman talked about finding a friendly for the November window after our second match with the US which could be useful. I think I agree with his argument that we're better off not playing a friendly right before the first match with the US in order to maximize our chances of beating them. The multiplier for friendlies just isn't high enough to chance it.
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Old 09-10-2019, 12:37 PM   #1386
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Games to watch tonight.

Cuba- Canada obviously.

Dom. Rep. - El Salvador

Haiti - Curacao
I'll just add the friendly between Honduras and Chile. Honduras can gain 7 points with a win, gain 2 with a tie or lose 3 with a loss.
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Old 09-10-2019, 12:37 PM   #1387
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Unfortunately the playoff stage isn't until June 2020 which I think may be too late. I did see an article where Herdman talked about finding a friendly for the November window after our second match with the US which could be useful. I think I agree with his argument that we're better off not playing a friendly right before the first match with the US in order to maximize our chances of beating them. The multiplier for friendlies just isn't high enough to chance it.
Ah damn - I didn't realize that the playoff phase ran so late. Thanks for the clarification.
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Old 09-10-2019, 01:19 PM   #1388
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I'll just add the friendly between Honduras and Chile. Honduras can gain 7 points with a win, gain 2 with a tie or lose 3 with a loss.
How far in time do the rankings go back? 2 years?
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Old 09-10-2019, 01:47 PM   #1389
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How far in time do the rankings go back? 2 years?
Just before the 2018 World Cup FIFA switched to an ELO-based system so there is no more expiration or devaluation of points over time. Basically they took the ranking table as of some date in 2018, gave the top team a starting value of 1600 points and each place below that 4 fewer points and then since that time the points are added/subtracted based on each game.

The formula is:
new points = old points + Importance * (Result - Expected Result)

Importance = 5 points for a friendly outside the international windows up to 60 for the World Cup playoffs. 10 for a normal friendly and 25 for confederation or World Cup qualifying are the ones we're seeing right now. Gold Cup was 35 prior to the quarter final and then 40 after that.

Result = 1 for a win, 0.75 for a shoot-out win, 0.5 for a shoot-out loss or tie, 0 for a loss

Expected Result = 1/ 10^(-(your points - opponent points) / 600)+1)

(I just learned that you can't lose points in the knockout stage of a competition, so Canada losing to Haiti didn't cause us to lose points only to miss out on gaining a bunch)

Last edited by Arsenal14; 09-10-2019 at 02:04 PM.
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Old 09-10-2019, 03:16 PM   #1390
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Hmmm so wierd. I can't see them adding points forever.
Results have to fall off at some point.

Watch that be another wrinkle in 2020. Just when you think you've figured it out.
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Old 09-10-2019, 05:15 PM   #1391
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Carducci didn't get the start. No surprise but I was hoping he'd get his first cap.
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Old 09-10-2019, 06:07 PM   #1392
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Canada are up 1-0 at the half, off a rocket from Alphonso Davies. Lots of changes to the squad for this game and none of them appear to be for the better, except for bringing in Steven Vittoria at the back. Canada's attack is coming exclusively down the left side via Davies, with Larin at striker and David looking less than himself on the right wing.

I'd like to see Liam Millar brought in at the half for Larin, then put Millar on the right wing so David can be at his best striking from the middle.
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Old 09-10-2019, 07:01 PM   #1393
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Woo!

Dominican Rep. 1 El Salvador 0

Haiti 1 Curacao 1

Wheres my calculator?
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Old 09-10-2019, 07:10 PM   #1394
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Woo!

Dominican Rep. 1 El Salvador 0

Haiti 1 Curacao 1

Wheres my calculator?
Not sure about Curacao but El Salvador should lose about 18 points.

Job done for Canada today as well although it got a bit tense in the second half. Doneil Henry got a second yellow in the 55th minute and 10 man Canada played keepaway for the rest of the game, 1-0 the final.
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Old 09-10-2019, 07:15 PM   #1395
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Hmmm so wierd. I can't see them adding points forever.
Results have to fall off at some point.

Watch that be another wrinkle in 2020. Just when you think you've figured it out.
Just win in Concacaf, against everyone except Mexico and the USA. Then they'll be fine. Don't choke against teams like Haiti who probably had to borrow gas from Canada for the team bus back to the airport.

And play some friendlies for points and experience. But that would mean the CSA would have to be actually doing something progressive and helpful rather then figuring out new excuses for failing.
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Old 09-10-2019, 07:25 PM   #1396
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Just win in Concacaf, against everyone except Mexico and the USA. Then they'll be fine. Don't choke against teams like Haiti who probably had to borrow gas from Canada for the team bus back to the airport.

And play some friendlies for points and experience. But that would mean the CSA would have to be actually doing something progressive and helpful rather then figuring out new excuses for failing.
Problem is, our next two games are against the US and we need to get our ranking up asap. I think we have a chance in these games as our attack is the best it's ever been, while the US are at a low point relative to their last couple of decades. It won't be easy but if our best 11 shows up and plays as well as they're capable of then we can get the results we need.
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Old 09-10-2019, 07:30 PM   #1397
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Problem is, our next two games are against the US and we need to get our ranking up asap. I think we have a chance in these games as our attack is the best it's ever been, while the US are at a low point relative to their last couple of decades. It won't be easy but if our best 11 shows up and plays as well as they're capable of then we can get the results we need.
Sure, but I assume the other teams we are chasing to the Hex have to play the US as well?

They can't lose to the minnows, they can't lose to the teams around them (some of who are minnows) and a bonus would be getting a result vs the US or Mexico. Slide in another game to make up for the far too frequent stretches they've been off since Herdman took over.
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Old 09-10-2019, 07:38 PM   #1398
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I never watch anything live, and also find this a huge annoyance. I don't know if you've noticed, but if you check the schedule for the "Live" channel, they will often replay games later that night. Sometimes way too late.

On Saturday, I think they replayed it at 830pm (which is when I watched it). Tonight it starts at 745pm.
have you guys thought about starting the game live and just pausing the stream and coming back after the kids are in bed? just be sure not to click the "live" button or it's donezo.
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Old 09-10-2019, 07:45 PM   #1399
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Sure, but I assume the other teams we are chasing to the Hex have to play the US as well?



They can't lose to the minnows, they can't lose to the teams around them (some of who are minnows) and a bonus would be getting a result vs the US or Mexico. Slide in another game to make up for the far too frequent stretches they've been off since Herdman took over.
The format is much different this time around, so no, not really. Instead of the 3 group semifinal round followed by the hex, this time the hex will be determined by rankings as of June 2020. So whoever the top 6 teams are by the rankings at that point will be the hex.

The current nations league tournament, where we are in a 3 team group with the USA and Cuba is not technically a world cup qualifier, but the results have a huge impact on where teams will be ranked leading up to June. Since our only remaining games are against the USA, we need to get results now or we risk not making it into the top 6 before qualifying even starts.

If we fail to do that, then all we can hope for is winning the second chance tournament against everyone else in Concacaf, which would earn a playoff against the fourth place hex team. The winner of that playoff would then get into the interconfederation playoff against a team from South America, Asia, or Oceania.

TL;DR, the format is way different this time around and results against the US are our best and possibly only chance at making the hex.

Edit: no, the teams we are chasing in the rankings (El Salvador, Curacao, Panama) do not have to play the us or Mexico. Curacao do have to play Costa Rica though.
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Old 09-10-2019, 08:38 PM   #1400
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Sounds like some Cuban players may have defected after the game.
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