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Old 09-19-2019, 03:06 PM   #41
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It's a bit of a risk because Chabot has only had one season in this role, but if he's able to play this way consistently through his prime, obviously $8M is a good deal. A legitimate first pairing guy who can score 55+ points every year (only had 70 games to do that last year) is going to be worth over 10M as a UFA pretty easily by the time he's 27... They've bought a bunch of his UFA years for far less. And they have Brannstrom waiting in the wings to supplement him.

Now then, off to find a #1C and a starting goalie.
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Old 09-19-2019, 03:07 PM   #42
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I'm surprised Chabot is willing to sign for that long, in Ottawa.
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Old 09-19-2019, 03:10 PM   #43
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I'm surprised Chabot is willing to sign for that long, in Ottawa.
I'm not. If he signs there for longer, he's more likely to be there for years that are good. If he signed a three-year deal instead, the entire contract could be spent on a bad team, and then he's an RFA who has to sign there again. Signing for eight years guarantees a continuous payout even while playing in a volatile situation, and it increases the likelihood that he gets to spend a few good years playing close to home.
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Old 09-19-2019, 04:01 PM   #44
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One season does not make make you the "real deal". He might be, but that's a pretty big gamble for an insane contract.
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Old 09-19-2019, 04:03 PM   #45
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He didn't put up the stats in his rookie year, but he looked good out there. He came into last year confident after fairing so well in the previous season and he really blossomed. He will only keep getting better and will absolutely earn that contract and look like a bargain towards the end of it.
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Old 09-19-2019, 06:52 PM   #46
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Deals like this make me cringe. I understand it's a calculated risk, but it's an expensive one with lots of factors in play that are unknown- injuries, overachieved in his second year, the unknown future salary cap etc. I also worry about the ripples this will create for other future signings when a player has a good second year and they want all the money in the world. I know this seems to be the new wave of reality but if the cap doesn't go up that much it's going to be hard to put together a quality NHL team in the future. That aside, huge contracts based on probable potential have always made me uneasy unless it's a slam dunk talent like a McDavid, Crosby or any other generational talent.
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Old 09-19-2019, 07:05 PM   #47
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Deals like this make me cringe. I understand it's a calculated risk, but it's an expensive one with lots of factors in play that are unknown- injuries, overachieved in his second year, the unknown future salary cap etc. I also worry about the ripples this will create for other future signings when a player has a good second year and they want all the money in the world. I know this seems to be the new wave of reality but if the cap doesn't go up that much it's going to be hard to put together a quality NHL team in the future. That aside, huge contracts based on probable potential have always made me uneasy unless it's a slam dunk talent like a McDavid, Crosby or any other generational talent.
Completely disagree.

The number of young stud players who look to be on the verge/at the point of stardom that remain/improve on their fantastic play after a great sophomore season is FAR greater than the amount of players who stagnate/regress.

If Chabot was to have a similar season or improve on last season, his asking price next offseason would very likely have been double digits in terms of AAV.

By negotiating this quickly, the Senators potentially saved themselves $15-$20M over the next 8 years.

If you were to do this with 20 stud upcoming RFA's, the amount of deals that would look like absolute steals in a few years time would GREATLY outweigh the amount of deals that end up looking like fair/dud contracts.

That's why so many players prefer to play out the final year of their deals before negotiating, because they know they'll very likely make much more money by even just slightly improving on their previous seasons.
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Old 09-19-2019, 07:29 PM   #48
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How are they not comparable players? Both are 2015 1st round picks and Dmen. Chabot has had much more offensive success but not convinced that is worth $3M more on the aav?


Chabotís deal covers more UFA years, so of course it would be higher. It also ends at a time that is favourable to the team. Hanifanís ends at a time favourable to the player, all factors which go into determining value.

You need you at more than straight numbers.

The cost to cover just a players prime years is considerable. Itís why Tkachuk remains unsigned.


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Old 09-19-2019, 07:38 PM   #49
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With the inflation of the salary cap, this is close to the same the Flames having signed Gaudreau for 8 years at about $7 million when they did.
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Old 09-20-2019, 06:22 AM   #50
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Chabotís deal covers more UFA years, so of course it would be higher. It also ends at a time that is favourable to the team. Hanifanís ends at a time favourable to the player, all factors which go into determining value.

You need you at more than straight numbers.

The cost to cover just a players prime years is considerable. Itís why Tkachuk remains unsigned.


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I understand the term.

6 years at 4.95M is a steal compared to 8x8. Chabot had a much more prolific season on a garbage fire team than Hanifin has had on a bubble team then top contender.

I am not saying it is a bad deal for the Sens I just think the Flames really got a steal considering both players do have similar upside.
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Old 09-20-2019, 06:51 AM   #51
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I understand the term.

6 years at 4.95M is a steal compared to 8x8. Chabot had a much more prolific season on a garbage fire team than Hanifin has had on a bubble team then top contender.

I am not saying it is a bad deal for the Sens I just think the Flames really got a steal considering both players do have similar upside.
Hanifin's is surely a great deal, I doubt anyone argues about that.

But since Hanifin's deal was just 6 years, the Flames did not pay the huge premium required to cover those next 2 years. It's not just the fact it covers 2 additional UFA years, it's the fact that it places Hanifin in a great position when his contract is up. Much like Johnny. So, the number look much better than they really are. I would certainly had preferred that Johnny sign an 8x8 contract than the one he did, or even more.

But Chabot has quite a bit more offensive upside than Hanifin.

And I love Hanifin. I was one of the few people who loved the Hamilton trade immediately when it went down.
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Old 09-20-2019, 07:58 AM   #52
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I agree on Johnny for 8x8 but that is only an extra 1.25M for the extra 2 years not $3M. I guess I am not convinced that Chabot is that much better than Hanifin.

The Flames got 6 years for Hanifin when the Bruins and Jackets paid the same or more for 3 years of McAvoy and Werenski. All these players are comparable to Hanifin.

Seeing these contracts make me feel like Treliving hit a home run.

I was also a huge fan of that trade day 1 and really think Hanifin is going to breakout this year.
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Old 09-20-2019, 08:20 AM   #53
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If Hanifin was signing today (based on the same experience level he had at the time of his signing), it would be a lot more. The market has shifted.

Tre made a good deal at the time, that looks so much better today simply because of the shifting market for RFA's.

Because of the fact that there is a still a salary cap, the shifting of more money early to players will just create more parity in the league as teams cannot have premium players for any real length of time cheaply.

Draft picks will become even more valuable as teams will need cheap players for the bottom 6 etc.

And with more parity (as the best teams will not be as good as teams were in the past), you'll see more bubble teams really contend for the Stanley Cup.

The theory of "just make the playoffs and anything can happen" will become truer and truer.
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Old 09-20-2019, 08:33 AM   #54
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If Hanifin was signing today (based on the same experience level he had at the time of his signing), it would be a lot more. The market has shifted.

Tre made a good deal at the time, that looks so much better today simply because of the shifting market for RFA's.

Because of the fact that there is a still a salary cap, the shifting of more money early to players will just create more parity in the league as teams cannot have premium players for any real length of time cheaply.

Draft picks will become even more valuable as teams will need cheap players for the bottom 6 etc.

And with more parity (as the best teams will not be as good as teams were in the past), you'll see more bubble teams really contend for the Stanley Cup.

The theory of "just make the playoffs and anything can happen" will become truer and truer.
Maybe.

Or maybe you will learn whether 10 + 1 + 1 is greater or less than 7 + 3 + 2

And the market will adjust accordingly
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Old 09-20-2019, 08:38 AM   #55
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I just looked and saw where Chabot was drafted. He got picked just after the #15 pick that the Flames gave up for Hamilton in 2015.

#16 Barzal
#17 Connor
#18 Chabot
#23 Boeser

Lucky the Flames traded for Hamilton or they would have been in real cap trouble this year.
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Old 09-20-2019, 08:43 AM   #56
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Does your weird brain just automatically go into contrarian mode and spew utter nonsense when you see general consensus of opinion? Do you get a kick out of this? What the hell is the matter with you? You're out to lunch almost every single time in every hockey thread. Your ridiculous opinions and the crud logic you use to back them up is just silly and bizarre. May god have mercy on your soul.
If I counter what textcritic says it turns out I am usually right.

Are you making death threats?

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Old 09-20-2019, 09:01 AM   #57
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If I counter what textcritic says it turns out I am usually right.
I’m not sure if you’ve ever been right. You very consistently make logical mistakes in your attempt at arguments.
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Old 09-20-2019, 09:16 AM   #58
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I just looked and saw where Chabot was drafted. He got picked just after the #15 pick that the Flames gave up for Hamilton in 2015.

#16 Barzal
#17 Connor
#18 Chabot
#23 Boeser

Lucky the Flames traded for Hamilton or they would have been in real cap trouble this year.
Flames were rumored to be heavily interested in Chabot leading up to the draft. Good chance he would have been a Flame if the Dougie trade didnít happen.
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Old 09-20-2019, 10:50 AM   #59
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Completely disagree.

The number of young stud players who look to be on the verge/at the point of stardom that remain/improve on their fantastic play after a great sophomore season is FAR greater than the amount of players who stagnate/regress.

If Chabot was to have a similar season or improve on last season, his asking price next offseason would very likely have been double digits in terms of AAV.

By negotiating this quickly, the Senators potentially saved themselves $15-$20M over the next 8 years.

If you were to do this with 20 stud upcoming RFA's, the amount of deals that would look like absolute steals in a few years time would GREATLY outweigh the amount of deals that end up looking like fair/dud contracts.

That's why so many players prefer to play out the final year of their deals before negotiating, because they know they'll very likely make much more money by even just slightly improving on their previous seasons.
I agree with you on the Chabot thing, but this is what concerns me- we are going to assume that in one year of the same performance or better, he would now jump yet another 2 million to command double digits. Things are trending in a way that things are getting a bit ridiculous too fast in salaries and the cap is not parallel to this trend. There is uncertainty around the future cap. I know there is a future USA TV deal, but even still, we don't know what that number looks like yet. It just feels like a lot of major money decisions are being based off of assumptions right now.
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