2019/2020 Trade Speculation and Rumors 2.0

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

And that's how you get Mike Cammalleri to ultimately walk for nothing.

You don't trade an elite player on a great contract with 2 years left on it for a so-so return because you are trying to avoid having him walk away.

[DB93]

I would consider approaching Vegas to take Fleury off their hands. Calgary is one of the few teams that could use a bona fide number one with the cap space to make it work. Obviously there would need to be compensation for taking that contract on. I would try to build a deal around Fleury ($2mm retained per year) + Tuch. Just don’t know what Flames would need to add to get that done. Obviously positioning Tuch as the carrot for taking Fluery.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

You don't trade an elite player on a great contract with 2 years left on it for a so-so return because you are trying to avoid having him walk away.

...well, you can. They would be smart to, if they don't think they're going to win in the next two years (which they almost certainly won't).

And I don't think Johnny has the value of an elite player. Erik Karlsson was the last "elite" player in Johnny's contract situation to be traded and he mustered one first-round pick and one second-round pick, both of which were expected to be low. The Sens also got a couple of depth roster players and (at the time) a mid-level prospect in Norris.

Certainly no Kotkaniemi or Caufield-type pieces in there. And I think Gaudreau has much less value than Karlsson did, at the time.

Gaudreau walking for nothing is the worst-case scenario. It has to be avoided at all costs. Domi + a 1st is hardly the be-all and the end-all target but it's a start. Certainly not on the level of the tosh they got for Iginla.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I think a beefed-up Jeff Skinner return is far more likely. That's why I'm leaning towards re-signing Johnny, at this point.

Might as well wait till his last trade deadline if you aren't going to get a top prospect for him then.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

...well, you can. They would be smart to, if they don't think they're going to win in the next two years (which they almost certainly won't).

And I don't think Johnny has the value of an elite player. Erik Karlsson was the last "elite" player in Johnny's contract situation to be traded and he mustered one first-round pick and one second-round pick, both of which were expected to be low. The Sens also got a couple of depth roster players and (at the time) a mid-level prospect in Norris.

Certainly no Kotkaniemi or Caufield-type pieces in there. And I think Gaudreau has much less value than Karlsson did, at the time.

Can doesn't mean should. This is WAY too soon to take a mediocre return for him. It's stupid.

Here's a different idea: get a better return or don't trade him

Also, making bad trades is how you guarantee that 'they almost certainly won't'

[Roof-Daddy]

At a bare minimum you should be able to get a Mark Stone return for Gaudreau. That's a very high end prospect and a 2nd round pick. At a bare minimum.

"well, Stone is a better all round player than Johnny"

OK. But Stone never has and likely never will put up 99 points either. Plus, the Sens had to trade Stone right then and there or he was going to play out the string and walk for nothing. The Flames still have two years before they are in that spot with Johnny.

[TheScorpion]

Two years of "status quo" with Gaudreau before he walks for zero assets while years tick off the contracts of Tkachuk/Andersson/Dube <<<<<<< changing the look of the team, getting younger, and adding assets to help complement the redesigned core

I'm all for keeping Gaudreau and re-signing him but if they decide to move him, at a certain point you need to take the goods that you can get. Johnny just isn't going to be a premiere trade chip, IMO. That doesn't mean they can't play his chip effectively.

But you don't want to wander around the casino, chip in hand, and lose all your money on slots before stepping outside and dropping the chip down a storm drain.

[dino7c]

2 years left of bargain contract Vs. UFA Stone too...massive difference

A few months of Hall just got a pretty big return

a bad Gaudreau trade doesn't help the Flames...there are plenty of moves out there to explore you should never feel forced into a deal (see JayBo)

[AustinL_NHL]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

...well, you can. They would be smart to, if they don't think they're going to win in the next two years (which they almost certainly won't).

And I don't think Johnny has the value of an elite player. Erik Karlsson was the last "elite" player in Johnny's contract situation to be traded and he mustered one first-round pick and one second-round pick, both of which were expected to be low. The Sens also got a couple of depth roster players and (at the time) a mid-level prospect in Norris.

Certainly no Kotkaniemi or Caufield-type pieces in there. And I think Gaudreau has much less value than Karlsson did, at the time.

Gaudreau walking for nothing is the worst-case scenario. It has to be avoided at all costs. Domi + a 1st is hardly the be-all and the end-all target but it's a start. Certainly not on the level of the tosh they got for Iginla.

Karlsson only had 1-year left on his contract and everyone knew he wouldn't be back. All the pressure was on Ottawa. Same with the Mark Stone and Taylor Hall situations, where they were dealt at the deadline.

Those were also teams in complete rebuild mode.

Gaudreau has a full 2 years left on a cap-friendly deal, which is more valuable than ever with the flat cap in the coming years. On top of that, the Flames aren't in a position where they need to trade Johnny and get whatever value they can for him because they're much more in the retool situation versus a rebuild, which allows them to laugh off horrible offers.

Let's also not forget that despite his dreadful season, Gaudreau is only 1 year removed from finishing 13th in the NHL in 5v5 goals, 9th in 5v5 primary assists and 5th in 5v5 points.

Any trade short of a 1st round pick and a valuable roster player (middle 6 F (Domi? in MTL's case) or top 4 D-man (Montour? in BUF's case) would be quite disappointing. They should quite easily also be able to get a high-level prospect included as well depending how high the 1st round pick is

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

At a bare minimum you should be able to get a Mark Stone return for Gaudreau. That's a very high end prospect and a 2nd round pick. At a bare minimum.

Brannstrom wasn't exactly a "very high-end prospect," though. He was a mid-first. 15th overall. His AHL offensive numbers have always been good but there were always questions about his defensive ability and those have continued to persist as he hasn't exactly shined with the Senators in his own end, even when playing with Chabot. At the time of the deal he was seen as slightly worse than Valimaki.

The Sens got absolutely fleeced in that trade. They honed in on one particular guy who was a total mystery box, and, right now, he doesn't look to project as a huge difference-maker. Still early, though.

The Domi proposal (which again, isn't perfect at all) looks like a million bucks in comparison to the Mark Stone return. Instead of a mystery box, you get a very good scoring forward plus another first-round pick that this team sorely needs.

The Blues did something similar around 2016 and 2017 to what I think the Flames should do. They were spinning their wheels, so they let Backes, Oshie, Shattenkirk, Elliott, Stastny, and others go, added a bunch of futures, and retooled on the fly while still keeping a young core of players intact. They amassed a vast quarry of picks that they were able to use to pick players and also as ammunition to trade for guys like Schenn and O'Reilly.

Sure the Flames have more leverage right now than those teams did but they also have a player in Johnny who is demonstrably worse than Stone, Karlsson, etc. All of those guys were on team-friendly contracts that were about to expire, too. I don't see why Johnny's contract is really all that different, apart from one extra year.

The idea of simply "not trading Johnny" is absurd, though. This team needs to make a change, so either you do that by moving Johnny to create different looks or you extend Johnny and build differently around him. But not signing Johnny and letting him walk would be absolute madness, IMO.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

If Monahan does end up being part of the changes this summer - does Arizona make sense?

Everyone is talking about there having to be "hockey trades" due to the flat-cap...this would be a doozy:

To ARZ: Monahan, Hanifin, Rittich
To CGY: Dvorak, Ekman-Larsson, Raanta (50% retained), 2021 1st, Taylor Hall's negotiation rights

That'd be a pretty wild "hockey trade".

Calgary gets Dvorak who is under term longer and a touch younger, while Arizona gets what you could argue is an upgrade at centre.

Calgary changes the culture of the team bringing in Ekman-Larsson, who is about the same as Hanifin in terms of on-ice quality - however he carries a brutal 8.25M contract, placing him pretty firmly in that "effective but overpaid" range - and Calgary gets Arizona's 1st in 2021 to compensate.

Calgary gets a slight improvement in Raanta at 2.125M to run a tandem with the returning Talbot. Arizona brings in Rittich as the clear back-up to Kuemper, again part of Calgary taking on OEL's contract.

Hall - Dvorak - Tkachuk
Mangiapane - Backlund - Lindholm
Gaudreau - Bennett - Dube
Lucic - ? - ?
?

Ekman-Larsson - Andersson
Giordano - ?
Valimaki - ?
?

Talbot
Raanta

Yeah, no. The Flames make out like bandits. Coyotes get screwed here.

[Funkhouser]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Poehling is a worse prospect than Janko. That would be an iginla level return for johnny.

Avoid Poehling like the plague...he didn’t even make their taxi squad in the bubble due to the fact he didn’t train, like at all, during the pause!
He’s also a vocal MAGA guy, so there’s that too.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

Yeah, no. The Flames make out like bandits. Coyotes get screwed here.

Disagree OEL is a toxic contract and that would be a brutal trade for Calgary

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Disagree OEL is a toxic contract and that would be a brutal trade for Calgary

No kidding, it’s actually insane. NMC throughout...

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

No kidding, it’s actually insane. NMC throughout...

The 2021 1st makes the deal better but I think the Flames are downgrading at every position while adding cap

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by timbit

As I’ve mentioned, fans are going to be underwhelmed and disappointed by the Johnny return.

Other teams have watched his performances over the last year and a half.

Except they won't because they are not going to trade him.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Except they won't because they are not going to trade him.

Then we're looking at 2 more years of mediocrity.

You know what we could have without Johnny? 2 years of mediocrity (or a bit worse, which would be fine)

The Gio-Gaudreau window has closed. IMO the Avs closed it pretty emphatically, but the Stars have nailed it shut. The Flames had a really impressive run in 2018-19, but it was a bit of a mirage. Just like the Avs in '13-14, the Oilers in '16-17, or even the Devils in '17-18.

All is not lost, we just need to pivot to the Tkachuk-Andersson-Valimaki+Lindholm window (+Hanifin+Bennett+Dubé+Mangiapane). If that fails, then rebuild.

We probably need to try to take a shortcut though. I would trade anyone/everyone on the roster (and if necessary 1 of the guy in the brackets above) for a guy with term like Point, Barzal, Eichel, Dubois, or even Hischier. Barkov or Couturier would also be great, but of course their deals expire in 2 years.

Frost/Cozens is another route, but I don't really see either team giving them up.

[Vinny01]

Absolute hockey trade blockbuster

To Philly: Gaudreau, Monahan, Hanifin
To Calgary: Couturier, Konecny, Ghostisbere

I could see many saying that no way Philly touches that but I think it works out pretty good for them. They buy low on one of the top scoring duos of the last 6 years and also get a good upgrade on their blueline. Philly is having a hard time scoring in the playoffs and this addresses that.

Flames move on from their past core and get a new top centre that is a better 200ft player and has shown a scoring touch the last 3 years. They get the younger winger who was having a breakout season. They take on a Dman who is likely a 4/5 but could play some powerplay minutes. Flames also save roughly $3.5M in cap space in the deal which can go towards pursuing Hall or Lehner/Markstrom.

People will probably say I am a homer but I think the value favors Philly in this swap?

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Absolute hockey trade blockbuster

To Philly: Gaudreau, Monahan, Hanifin
To Calgary: Couturier, Konecny, Ghostisbere

I could see many saying that no way Philly touches that but I think it works out pretty good for them. They buy low on one of the top scoring duos of the last 6 years and also get a good upgrade on their blueline. Philly is having a hard time scoring in the playoffs and this addresses that.

Flames move on from their past core and get a new top centre that is a better 200ft player and has shown a scoring touch the last 3 years. They get the younger winger who was having a breakout season. They take on a Dman who is likely a 4/5 but could play some powerplay minutes. Flames also save roughly $3.5M in cap space in the deal which can go towards pursuing Hall or Lehner/Markstrom.

People will probably say I am a homer but I think the value favors Philly in this swap?

You're not a homer, it's a pretty even swap in my eyes.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Absolute hockey trade blockbuster

To Philly: Gaudreau, Monahan, Hanifin
To Calgary: Couturier, Konecny, Ghostisbere

I could see many saying that no way Philly touches that but I think it works out pretty good for them. They buy low on one of the top scoring duos of the last 6 years and also get a good upgrade on their blueline. Philly is having a hard time scoring in the playoffs and this addresses that.

Flames move on from their past core and get a new top centre that is a better 200ft player and has shown a scoring touch the last 3 years. They get the younger winger who was having a breakout season. They take on a Dman who is likely a 4/5 but could play some powerplay minutes. Flames also save roughly $3.5M in cap space in the deal which can go towards pursuing Hall or Lehner/Markstrom.

People will probably say I am a homer but I think the value favors Philly in this swap?

Except I thought one of the reasons to trade Gaudreau and/or Monahan was lack of playoff production, so I’m not sure the Philly rationale works very well.