Big Save Dave: Is he the long term answer?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

I actually don’t think the difference between the 2 is that far off with what we’re currently seeing, but who knows how that negotiation is going to go. It really comes down to leverage and the fear is, he’ll have quite a bit of it if his current play continues.

As has been explained to you multiple times, it takes two to negotiate a deal. And Rittich's camp has zero motivation to negotiate now - they already have leverage.

If he keeps playing well all year and into the playoffs, that's a good thing. I hope he earns a very nice contract!

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Well this is something I also had in mind because the situation is currently trending towards a gigantic pay day for Rittich and his agent. But as with all players, there’s a risk/reward in signing earlier vs signing later. All I know is, I’m in the camp of attempting to sign him early rather than after the season ends.

I don't believe this at all. At least, not in Rittich's situation. I think the numbers both sides would be discussing now are the low-water mark for him at the end of the year regardless of how the season finishes. It is similar with Tkachuk—he would never sign a deal now unless it was a maximum offer because he knows that even if his production slides in the second half he will still finish the year with enough of an improvement over last season that he is guaranteed to be among the top-paid RFAs this summer. One of the reasons for this is that ALL contracts will be relatively higher with a new cap-number in place than they are while negotiating off of the current cap.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

I actually don’t think the difference between the 2 is that far off with what we’re currently seeing, but who knows how that negotiation is going to go. It really comes down to leverage and the fear is, he’ll have quite a bit of it if his current play continues.

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

As has been explained to you multiple times, it takes two to negotiate a deal. And Rittich's camp has zero motivation to negotiate now - they already have leverage...

In actual fact, the Turek contract is a precise contradiction of the point Classic_Sniper is arguing: the Flames rushed to sign him mid-season, and in retrospect misjudged his value. The current situation with Rittich is not at all dissimilar.

[TheScorpion]

Turek also had a way bigger track-record than Rittich. He helped the Blues to the WCF. That would be like the Flames giving a huge deal to Elliott after the 10-game win streak in 2017.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

As has been explained to you multiple times, it takes two to negotiate a deal. And Rittich's camp has zero motivation to negotiate now - they already have leverage.

If he keeps playing well all year and into the playoffs, that's a good thing. I hope he earns a very nice contract!

Well then why does any player sign a mid season deal at all? Why do ppg players (at the time) like a Jonathan Marchessault or a Josh Bailey sign extensions so early instead of waiting till the offseason to really cash in?

Sometimes players who haven't signed big money deals want that guaranteed money, that guaranteed term and that guaranteed security just in case their play drops off or they suffer a career ending injury or like Mark Giordano said about his previous sweetheart deal, you do it for your family as well. Rittich I would say has even less leverage than of the 3 guys I just mentioned, so it's not that crazy to believe.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Well then why does any player sign a mid season deal at all? Why do ppg players (at the time) like a Jonathan Marchessault or a Josh Bailey sign extensions so early instead of waiting till the offseason to really cash in?

Sometimes players who haven't signed big money deals want that guaranteed money, that guaranteed term and that guaranteed security just in case their play drops off or they suffer a career ending injury or like Mark Giordano said about his previous sweetheart deal, you do it for your family as well. Rittich I would say has even less leverage than of the 3 guys I just mentioned, so it's not that crazy to believe.

Some situations go down differently than others? Interesting.

Again, it takes both sides to sign. If a player signs an extension mid-season, it typically illustrates that the player is what he is, and that there isn't a lot to negotiate. Get it done and move on.

But as for Rittich, there is no way his agent is looking to sign right now, unless the Flames come in with their pants down and beg.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

In actual fact, the Turek contract is a precise contradiction of the point Classic_Sniper is arguing: the Flames rushed to sign him mid-season, and in retrospect misjudged his value. The current situation with Rittich is not at all dissimilar.

To me, it's about getting Rittich at a more palatable cap hit. That's all. It's easier to get him at a lower cap hit now, than it would be if he ended the season with Vezina votes and a couple playoff series wins under his belt. If the cheaper cap hit cannot be had, then obviously you don't do it.

With Turek, yes he represents the risk that I was talking about. There's risk involved with every player you sign. You just hope your scouts do a good enough job and he signs for a cheap enough contract to mitigate that risk.

I'm just scared to see Rittich's cap hit starting at a 4 or a 5 or a 6 because goalies can be voodoo and the Flames don't have the cap space moving forward to be wrong with Rittich.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Some situations go down differently than others? Interesting.

Again, it takes both sides to sign. If a player signs an extension mid-season, it typically illustrates that the player is what he is, and that there isn't a lot to negotiate. Get it done and move on.

But as for Rittich, there is no way his agent is looking to sign right now, unless the Flames come in with their pants down and beg.

How do you know that for certain what he and his agent are thinking? I just showed you examples of players who were playing well and happened to sign good value deals mid season. Rittich has never seen a million dollar contract before. Getting a 300%-400% raise right now might actually entice him enough to sign.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Well then why does any player sign a mid season deal at all? Why do ppg players (at the time) like a Jonathan Marchessault or a Josh Bailey sign extensions so early instead of waiting till the offseason to really cash in?

Sometimes players who haven't signed big money deals want that guaranteed money, that guaranteed term and that guaranteed security just in case their play drops off or they suffer a career ending injury or like Mark Giordano said about his previous sweetheart deal, you do it for your family as well.

Sure, but I would say this is by far the exception, and not something that is typical.

Rittich I would say has even less leverage than of the 3 guys I just mentioned, so it's not that crazy to believe.

He has less leverage, I would agree. But that is not to say that Rittich does not have any leverage at all. I suspect you are probably overestimating the dollar-value on Rittich's next deal, and that is where the disconnect occurs. The question today is not whether Rittich is a $4.0 m goalie or a $6.0 m goalie. The question today is whether he is a $2.5 m goalie, or a $3.0 m goalie.

[Psytic]

He could be the answer or be the next Andrew Hammond. I would wait and see goalies are strange.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Sure, but I would say this is by far the exception, and not something that is typical.


He has less leverage, I would agree. But that is not to say that Rittich does not have any leverage at all. I suspect you are probably overestimating the dollar-value on Rittich's next deal, and that is where the disconnect occurs. The question today is not whether Rittich is a $4.0 m goalie or a $6.0 m goalie. The question today is whether he is a $2.5 m goalie, or a $3.0 m goalie.

And that's exactly my point. Today, if we could get him at $2.5M-$3.0M, I would've signed him yesterday. This is a number I had pegged him at in December. The fear though, is that if his game continues to progress and he gains more and more leverage, that his ask sky rockets as well. This is the type of conversation that I can almost guarantee the higher ups in Flames management are doing.

In my opinion, they have to get on this early before it becomes a Tkachuk like situation. Last summer, maybe the Flames could've had him at 7ish. Now, I doubt he'll be cheaper than 8 or even 9.

[Split98]

I love what BSD has done this year and I think he gains a lot of fandom for doing it in a year where goaltending could have sunk a great season. He's a blast to watch, I love his passion and energy and he is damn good.

What gives me hope for this being sustainable is his incredible positioning. Like the Great Kipper, if you're not directly watching him... he seems to teleport. When there's a shot from the point he's poster-perfect set to the shooter. Rewind 3 seconds, and he was handling a mad scramble in front of the net, but he's up and ready faster than I've seena anyone in red in a while. It's fun to see the other team staring at the sky almost nightly - as he's flat-out robbed guys that thought they'd have an open cage.

As crapshoot said, the thing I really like about him is how much he wants to develop his game. He's not satisfied with helping the team get Ws, you can tell he has the drive to keep his name at the top of the league. The skills there to do it, and now he's trying to add Smith puck-handling? Glorious.

You can't help but get the Kipper vibes when he's around too. The calm crease sweep and the steady rebound after a goal were big parts of Kippers game. Between that and his teleporting-positioning they're flashbacks you can't help but get excited about. June is his opportunity to solidify and validate the excitement, but everybody knows goalies (Hammond and Hellebuyck are great names to be in this thread) are unpredictable. The way he carries himself helps believe that this is sustainable.

[Split98]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

As has been explained to you multiple times[...]

Sidebar: Can we (myself very much included) make a 2019 resolution to stop addressing each other with this?
Sidebar 2: A+ tags

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

And that's exactly my point. Today, if we could get him at $2.5M-$3.0M, I would've signed him yesterday. This is a number I had pegged him at in December. The fear though, is that if his game continues to progress and he gains more and more leverage, that his ask sky rockets as well. This is the type of conversation that I can almost guarantee the higher ups in Flames management are doing.

In my opinion, they have to get on this early before it becomes a Tkachuk like situation. Last summer, maybe the Flames could've had him at 7ish. Now, I doubt he'll be cheaper than 8 or even 9.

1) if you were him, would you sign today at $2.5M? I sure wouldn't.

2) Obviously we don't know what they are thinking, but the fact that they aren't actually talking suggests what they are thinking (that it's better to wait).

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Sure, but I would say this is by far the exception, and not something that is typical.


He has less leverage, I would agree. But that is not to say that Rittich does not have any leverage at all. I suspect you are probably overestimating the dollar-value on Rittich's next deal, and that is where the disconnect occurs. The question today is not whether Rittich is a $4.0 m goalie or a $6.0 m goalie. The question today is whether he is a $2.5 m goalie, or a $3.0 m goalie.

He is playing at a top10 #1 goalie in the league level and has the right to arbitration. If he waits for a offer there would be several teams that jump at giving up a 4 x 2 for a 2nd round pick.

4 M is the absolute low that he will get... on a one year deal.

Trouba got 5.5M on a one year deal in the same situation.


Trouba missed a third last season and the Jets still comfortably made the playoffs and at no time was in the top 20 d-men in the league.

If Rittich misses a 15 starts of his expected 30 remaining starts and the Flames are hard pressed to make the playoffs.

He is in the running for the Flames MVP.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

He is playing at a top10 #1 goalie in the league level and has the right to arbitration. If he waits for a offer there would be several teams that jump at giving up a 4 x 2 for a 2nd round pick.

4 M is the absolute low that he will get... on a one year deal.

Trouba got 5.5M on a one year deal in the same situation.


Trouba missed a third last season and the Jets still comfortably made the playoffs and at no time was in the top 20 d-men in the league.

If Rittich misses a 15 starts of his expected 30 remaining starts and the Flames are hard pressed to make the playoffs.

He is in the running for the Flames MVP.

Trouba, like the other examples given, had a bigger track record than Rittich.

Goalies can have wildly varying seasons, especially starting out or just getting into a number one role - look at Darling before and after his contract.

For another example, look at Grubauer. I think the Avs were looking to him to replace Varlamov at a fairly big (but not really high) contract. Grubauer has proceeded to be mediocre at best. Now I think they have to re-sign Varly.

[Inferno]

One thing that needs to be taken into consideration too is maybe Rittich doesn't want to deal with the distraction of negotiating a new deal halfway through the season and trusts that fair deal will be made this summer.

Sure, it would be nice to sign a player early and potentially save money but you can't force them either.

[Split98]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

1) if you were him, would you sign today at $2.5M? I sure wouldn't.

2) Obviously we don't know what they are thinking, but the fact that they aren't actually talking suggests what they are thinking (that it's better to wait).

Devils advocate: I might

There's something to be said for stability, and some value it more than getting the max dollar. If it can get done right now, he's ok with the money (maybe not $2.5, but you get the idea) and he has the next 3-4 years sorted out... maybe he loves that.

Treliving definitely sets the table, and he has reason to do it now with Tkachuk coming up in the off-season. On the Rittich side, it's the team showing confidence in you, and your best-case-scenario is being a fantastic deal for the team. I'm pretty happy with millions in the bank and you definitely have less pressure if you're on a good value contract I think.

There is a little bit of me that might want to avoid max money, especially as a goalie. As silly as that sounds.

[GioforPM]

How many deals has Treliving done mid-season? I can't recall any. I don;t see why he'd change his MO now, especially given his success rate.

[Split98]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

How many deals has Treliving done mid-season? I can't recall any. I don;t see why he'd change his MO now, especially given his success rate.

I could be wrong, but I always thought of him as one of the GMs that does like to tie up what he can mid-season

Backlund was extended Feb 16, 2018. There could be others (or Backs is the outlier) but he's the only specific name that came to mind