Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community
Old 03-25-2020, 09:10 AM   #721
flylock shox
1 millionth post winnar!
 
flylock shox's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Now world wide!
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by CroFlames View Post
So have we seen the bottom?

I personally don't think so. Once the US fatalities start piling up, I fully expect panic selling to start right back up again.


But who knows? I still can't fathom how the market (and the economy generally) has continued to churn along despite trillions of dollars being pumped into it willy-nilly, including massive consumer debt fed by ultra-low interest rates. Looks like a massive house of cards to me, but I expected it to tumble down last year if not before.



I feel like we're through the looking glass now when it comes to making rational predictions about markets.
flylock shox is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to flylock shox For This Useful Post:
Old 03-25-2020, 09:26 AM   #722
Leondros
Powerplay Quarterback
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by CroFlames View Post
So have we seen the bottom?
The last two weeks of January I pulled everything I owned out of the stock markets including all of my RRSPs and personal directed equities:

https://forum.calgarypuck.com/showth...62#post7364362

There was just too much writing on the wall in what feels like an eternity ago. What scared me the most back then was the trickle effect China had with shutting its economy down and all of the raw material and manufacturing issues associated with it. I had planned on getting back into the market when everything cooled down.

Fast forward to today, and it is far worse than I expected. We have effectively shut down a handful of major North American cities (and will shut down more), Europe is in a worse situation than anyone could have predicted, and India just locked in 1.3 billion people.

As far as industries go, oil and gas - decimated, travel - gone, tourism - non-existent, service industries - closed, manufacturing - crawling. I just don't see how we have seen a bottom yet because we are still dealing with irrational panic. No one has had a chance to even model or quantify whats going on because frankly, no one has the data to do so. Once data points are available rational decisions will be made and I fully believe they will suggest a long road to recovery and that's not even getting into the fiscal/monetary poison pills governments are going to have to swallow to even get to a semblance of 'the good old days'.

I had a call with some of the major bank's oil and gas capital markets, and the take away was that using data points such as flight data and traffic data, it points to China slowly recovering, but Europe and North America starting to feel the effects. China still has not even reached normal driving activities in cities in Shanghai suggesting we have still have a ways to go in terms of recovery and oil and gas demand. This is going to be a marathon, and its really going to be up to the credit holders in terms of who survives and who doesn't.

Now, the positives. The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal. Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

TLDR: I think we have 3 - 4 months of extreme volatility, followed by a second half recovery. Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history and this was it. Much money can be made in this market if you are prudent and patient.
Leondros is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 7 Users Say Thank You to Leondros For This Useful Post:
Old 03-25-2020, 09:37 AM   #723
CroFlames
Franchise Player
 
CroFlames's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Exp:
Default

Dang, good call pulling out.



I kept telling myself I was going to, but real life happens and I didn't get around to doing it.



I'm in for the long haul so I expect to recover all my losses, but I'm on the prowl to get into some new tech firms once we reach bottom.
CroFlames is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-25-2020, 09:42 AM   #724
Leondros
Powerplay Quarterback
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by CroFlames View Post
Dang, good call pulling out.



I kept telling myself I was going to, but real life happens and I didn't get around to doing it.



I'm in for the long haul so I expect to recover all my losses, but I'm on the prowl to get into some new tech firms once we reach bottom.
The most successful I have been in investing in the last decade is immediately after a major event such as Brexit or the 2014 oil crash. While new tech firms are exciting and have the potential to sky rocket, in times like these when there are full market corrections I find the bullet proof major companies across all sectors also do very well.
Leondros is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Leondros For This Useful Post:
Old 03-25-2020, 09:44 AM   #725
MoneyGuy
Franchise Player
 
MoneyGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by CroFlames View Post
I'm on the prowl to get into some new tech firms once we reach bottom.
Let us know when that is.

I want to buy a certain cruise line stock.
MoneyGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-25-2020, 09:44 AM   #726
sa226
#1 Goaltender
 
sa226's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Back in Calgary!!
Exp:
Default

Yeah, no kidding. Nice call.

I'm sure I'm not the only one that has had the conversation, but I had it with a coworker in December. Just both talking about how we're both a little uncomfortable with the bull run the markets had been on and it seems like corrections usually happen in February. I was in the process of moving some investments around and considered just selling it all and sitting in cash for awhile. Decided against it, even if it was a moderate correction, we're in for long haul so may as well ride it out.

And here we are.
sa226 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-25-2020, 10:05 AM   #727
Leondros
Powerplay Quarterback
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache View Post
I bought some Suncor. It was in the 15s recently and is about 17. Lowest it has been in years.

They got pounded recently but I like their integrated model. Having the capacity to refine their own production should expose them less than companies that have 50/50 JVs with refiners like Cenovus (P66) and Husky (BP). Their business model positions them relatively decently to deal with volatility

They did have a massive capex cut today and had an up day even as WCS got beaten up even more.
I agree, I really like Suncor and did well with it in the last downturn. Fully integrated companies are naturally hedged because of their downstream businesses. Although I like Husky as well - Husky has a lot more refining capacity than just Toledo (the BP JV). They also have Prince George, Lima, Lloyd, and Superior (although Superior is still down from that explosion). I have toured all of their US refineries and I believe they have over 180,000 boepd throughput capacity which means a large chunk of their upstream production is hedged from pricing from their US downstream operations alone. In the last downturn crack spreads went through the roof and is where fully integrated companies made a large portion of their free cash flows.
Leondros is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Leondros For This Useful Post:
Old 03-25-2020, 10:20 AM   #728
burn_this_city
Franchise Player
 
burn_this_city's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

With the overall demand destruction crack spreads are really low, hence why gas is so cheap compared to 2016.
burn_this_city is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-25-2020, 10:22 AM   #729
Leondros
Powerplay Quarterback
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by burn_this_city View Post
With the overall demand destruction crack spreads are really low, hence why gas is so cheap compared to 2016.
Still getting more value out of a barrel of WCS selling as a distillate/gasoline versus selling it at $8/barrel.
Leondros is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-25-2020, 04:35 PM   #730
bluejays
Franchise Player
 
bluejays's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Exp:
Default

I don't understand the optimism in the market since yesterday. Like others have said, the stock market can be irrational, but this has been ridiculous. Frankly, I need to make some money back, so I'm putting it out there - what leveraged ETFs are there for trading against the TSX or Dow? Seems like optimism based on the government policy approval, but it's so early to get in that it rose this much that I'm willing to bet it goes the other way by Friday.
bluejays is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-25-2020, 05:28 PM   #731
burn_this_city
Franchise Player
 
burn_this_city's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by fleury View Post
I don't understand the optimism in the market since yesterday. Like others have said, the stock market can be irrational, but this has been ridiculous. Frankly, I need to make some money back, so I'm putting it out there - what leveraged ETFs are there for trading against the TSX or Dow? Seems like optimism based on the government policy approval, but it's so early to get in that it rose this much that I'm willing to bet it goes the other way by Friday.
SPXU is inverse of SPY.
burn_this_city is online now   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to burn_this_city For This Useful Post:
Old 03-25-2020, 06:55 PM   #732
OMG!WTF!
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by fleury View Post
I don't understand the optimism in the market since yesterday. Like others have said, the stock market can be irrational, but this has been ridiculous. Frankly, I need to make some money back, so I'm putting it out there - what leveraged ETFs are there for trading against the TSX or Dow? Seems like optimism based on the government policy approval, but it's so early to get in that it rose this much that I'm willing to bet it goes the other way by Friday.

I think this bounce was a reaction to the overwhelming fear that took over the market for the last month. The TVIX went from $50 to $1000 in a month. BA was $90. That's going to drive some long attention under any circumstance. The market knows we're in for a brutal April with thousands of deaths and millions sick. But the selling was well over done. So I don't think this is the bottom either. But it might be.



If you want to short via an ETF Google short etf's and pick one. The most common ones I've seen are SDOW SDS and SQQQ. VXX TVIX and UVXY are other ETN'S reflecting fear via options market derivatives and they also usually move in an inverse relation to the equity market. Although it's really interesting to note that the VXX has moved up along with the markets over the last two days. Strange. Probably not a good long sign.



You need to take note of the weighting given the etf...1x's 2x's 3x's. And also note that holding these over time will diminish their value...Google etf decay if you're interested.
OMG!WTF! is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to OMG!WTF! For This Useful Post:
Old 03-26-2020, 09:55 AM   #733
Leondros
Powerplay Quarterback
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by OMG!WTF! View Post
I think this bounce was a reaction to the overwhelming fear that took over the market for the last month. The TVIX went from $50 to $1000 in a month. BA was $90. That's going to drive some long attention under any circumstance. The market knows we're in for a brutal April with thousands of deaths and millions sick. But the selling was well over done. So I don't think this is the bottom either. But it might be.



If you want to short via an ETF Google short etf's and pick one. The most common ones I've seen are SDOW SDS and SQQQ. VXX TVIX and UVXY are other ETN'S reflecting fear via options market derivatives and they also usually move in an inverse relation to the equity market. Although it's really interesting to note that the VXX has moved up along with the markets over the last two days. Strange. Probably not a good long sign.



You need to take note of the weighting given the etf...1x's 2x's 3x's. And also note that holding these over time will diminish their value...Google etf decay if you're interested.
I always find you have to really be careful with the 2x, and 3x etf's as unless you time them perfectly, you never make as much as you think you will. I find the longer you hold them and wait for the 'dip', the more the leverage eats into your potential gains. So unless you know the market will dip in the next week or so, they can be quite punitive in terms of the risk. Thats my experience with them anyway.
Leondros is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-26-2020, 11:48 AM   #734
DeluxeMoustache
 
DeluxeMoustache's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leondros View Post
I always find you have to really be careful with the 2x, and 3x etf's as unless you time them perfectly, you never make as much as you think you will. I find the longer you hold them and wait for the 'dip', the more the leverage eats into your potential gains. So unless you know the market will dip in the next week or so, they can be quite punitive in terms of the risk. Thats my experience with them anyway.
Oh, these things are so dangerous to hold.

I remember playing with FAS and FAZ years ago, mainly as day trades. Shorting financials when the mortgage backed securities crisis happened

Markets were closing up and down, and with the amplification of the noise, the value erodes pretty quickly even in a flat market

Also, you have these days where market moves happen that throw out all of the fundamentals. Like around the 2008 bailout when Goldman Sachs changed their fiscal year end from Nov to Dec, threw billions of dollars of losses into that phantom month and then declared a profit. Financials were up 15% and those leveraged ETFs were +/- 45%

That was a wild scene
DeluxeMoustache is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-26-2020, 11:54 AM   #735
burn_this_city
Franchise Player
 
burn_this_city's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leondros View Post
Still getting more value out of a barrel of WCS selling as a distillate/gasoline versus selling it at $8/barrel.
True, but gasoline futures crashed so badly in recent days that the average US refiners are losing $1-2 on the crack spread for gasoline. The integrated strategy isn't paying dividends when overall demand is being crushed.
burn_this_city is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-26-2020, 06:01 PM   #736
burn_this_city
Franchise Player
 
burn_this_city's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

Gulf Coast crack spreads were $-17 yesterday.
burn_this_city is online now   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to burn_this_city For This Useful Post:
Old 03-26-2020, 07:57 PM   #737
jayswin
Celebrated Square Root Day
 
jayswin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by CroFlames View Post
So have we seen the bottom?
I personally think we're at the beginning of a reckoning in North American (world really) working and spending and anyone looking for a near future bottom is playing a fools game.

With the massive death totals coming to America and the inability to crawl back into a regular functioning society because of that death, we will likely see a 5-10 year crawl back to what we knew as American consumerism, if it ever comes back at all.

What I predict is a massive drop (which we've already seen) followed by a bunch of little drops that keep the market slowly sliding to points people thought it could never drop to (while waiting for it explode up) and then eventually the stock market will be known as this thing that people used to make money on.
jayswin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-26-2020, 08:23 PM   #738
Jason14h
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jayswin View Post
I personally think we're at the beginning of a reckoning in North American (world really) working and spending and anyone looking for a near future bottom is playing a fools game.

With the massive death totals coming to America and the inability to crawl back into a regular functioning society because of that death, we will likely see a 5-10 year crawl back to what we knew as American consumerism, if it ever comes back at all.

What I predict is a massive drop (which we've already seen) followed by a bunch of little drops that keep the market slowly sliding to points people thought it could never drop to (while waiting for it explode up) and then eventually the stock market will be known as this thing that people used to make money on.
I think you are severally over reacting . The US will just keep printing money to ensure people can pay their bills and consume .

Massive death tolls ? Let’s not pretend the death tolls are massive .

Guess how many people have died in the last 6 months from influenza ? Up to 60k in the US

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

How many people total have died of Corona Virus worldwide? 25K

This isn’t to downplay the potential severity , but throwing around statements like
“Massive amounts of deaths “ is a bit dramatic
Jason14h is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Jason14h For This Useful Post:
Old 03-26-2020, 08:29 PM   #739
Flames Draft Watcher
In the Sin Bin
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason14h View Post
I think you are severally over reacting . The US will just keep printing money to ensure people can pay their bills and consume .

Massive death tolls ? Let’s not pretend the death tolls are massive .

Guess how many people have died in the last 6 months from influenza ? Up to 60k in the US

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

How many people total have died of Corona Virus worldwide? 25K

This isn’t to downplay the potential severity , but throwing around statements like
“Massive amounts of deaths “ is a bit dramatic
This is just the beginning of the deaths. It is just starting to hit parts of the world. I don't know why people look at the current numbers and brush them off when it's clear this is just the very beginning in some places.

We're at the start of this thing. Just because China may be starting to come out on the other side doesn't mean the rest of the world isn't just about to get smoked by this thing. The same thing happening in Italy is about to start happening in many countries around the world.

This isn't over. It's just begun.
Flames Draft Watcher is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Flames Draft Watcher For This Useful Post:
Old 03-26-2020, 08:33 PM   #740
GGG
Franchise Player
 
GGG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason14h View Post
I think you are severally over reacting . The US will just keep printing money to ensure people can pay their bills and consume .

Massive death tolls ? Let’s not pretend the death tolls are massive .

Guess how many people have died in the last 6 months from influenza ? Up to 60k in the US

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

How many people total have died of Corona Virus worldwide? 25K

This isn’t to downplay the potential severity , but throwing around statements like
“Massive amounts of deaths “ is a bit dramatic
The daily death rate from Corona is now 2 times flu and US deaths haven’t really started yet so it’s certainly going to get worse.

I think we have one more massive (more than 10% plunge) before we start the gradual recovery. There will be some kind of panic moment that will trigger the markets in a similar way that the NBA canceling the season triggered the last one.

There is no data so the markets are running on emotion right now.

But even if it takes six months to get this under control you will see the market slowly recover over a few years at the longest.
GGG is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 03:35 PM.

Calgary Flames
2023-24




Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright Calgarypuck 2021