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Old 05-06-2017, 04:44 PM   #21
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We're not looking for majority EVs. We're looking for the point where there's enough EVs to disrupt the oil industry. That's much less than 50%
That depends on the rate of adoption of cars by the 2nd and 3rd world.

Our existing oil infrastructure is also fairly low capital to maintain and operate relative to shale. So while the writing may be on the wall for mega projects our oil industry will be a low cost producer at current production levels for quite sometime.
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Old 05-06-2017, 04:46 PM   #22
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That depends on the rate of adoption of cars by the 2nd and 3rd world.

Our existing oil infrastructure is also fairly low capital to maintain and operate relative to shale. So while the writing may be on the wall for mega projects our oil industry will be a low cost producer at current production levels for quite sometime.
That's great, but lower oil prices leads to less jobs and a shrinking economy. It's not all it none here. Your point was no less true when the oversupply problem hit and out was/is still devastating
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Old 05-06-2017, 04:52 PM   #23
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Look at jobs in coal country in West Virginia in the States.

Coal is obsolete entirely. Those people are screwed and are not getting any help to change their way of doing things at all. Just false promises that coal is coming back, when it's not.

Alberta, if it doesn't plan properly to transition into other things will similarly be screwed.
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Old 05-06-2017, 04:57 PM   #24
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Eh, oil is considerably more resilient than coal just because it's necessary for so many more things. Passenger automobile fuel isn't the be all, end all. Also, how many places on earth would have the generation capacity to handle a full switch-over? Seems like that would take a long damn time.

But it's basically impossible to predict the course of technology more than a decade out. Also, Trump will probably have us all back in the stone age long before this becomes an issue...
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Old 05-06-2017, 05:07 PM   #25
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Eh, oil is considerably more resilient than coal just because it's necessary for so many more things. Passenger automobile fuel isn't the be all, end all. Also, how many places on earth would have the generation capacity to handle a full switch-over? Seems like that would take a long damn time.

But it's basically impossible to predict the course of technology more than a decade out. Also, Trump will probably have us all back in the stone age long before this becomes an issue...
You can look at R&D of the auto manufacturers and the automotive supply chain (as well as the R&D at universities) that will give you an idea of what is coming down the pipeline.
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Old 05-06-2017, 05:14 PM   #26
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Look at jobs in coal country in West Virginia in the States.

Coal is obsolete entirely. Those people are screwed and are not getting any help to change their way of doing things at all. Just false promises that coal is coming back, when it's not.

Alberta, if it doesn't plan properly to transition into other things will similarly be screwed.
How is Alberta going to transition into anything else successfully?

I mean they can try and mitigate, but when the oil gravy train pulls away from the station, Alberta will take some lumps.

Albertans aren't inherently smarter and harder-working then other areas in Canada. If the natural resources dry up, the competitive advantage is gone.

When that time comes I would suggest packing bags and moving to wherever the hot economy is.
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Old 05-06-2017, 05:41 PM   #27
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You are missing half of the story...there is an expectation that the business model of owning a car will be displaced.
That's the assumption that I consider ridiculous. EVs replacing gas powered? In 13 years, yes, I can see that. The entire world going ride share? Not likely.
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Old 05-06-2017, 05:45 PM   #28
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Albertans aren't inherently smarter and harder-working then other areas in Canada. If the natural resources dry up, the competitive advantage is gone.

When that time comes I would suggest packing bags and moving to wherever the hot economy is.
Albertans are younger and better educated than the rest of Canada. And our provincial finances are in better shape. Even with the price of oil tanking, you haven't seen a mass exodus out of the province because where is everyone going to go? Toronto and Vancouver are prohibitively expensive, especially for people interested in raising families, and the economy is as bad or worse than Alberta's in the rest of the country.
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Old 05-06-2017, 05:50 PM   #29
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That's the assumption that I consider ridiculous. EVs replacing gas powered? In 13 years, yes, I can see that. The entire world going ride share? Not likely.
If your transportation bill dropped by 75-90% with an acceptable service? You'd switch...
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Old 05-06-2017, 05:52 PM   #30
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That's great, but lower oil prices leads to less jobs and a shrinking economy. It's not all it none here. Your point was no less true when the oversupply problem hit and out was/is still devastating
The current state of the Alberta economy can be sustained with this type of production and investment. It isn't boom times but through prudent spending it's not a doomsday scenario.
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Old 05-06-2017, 06:01 PM   #31
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In 2000 when Oil jumped 40% from the previous year Warren Buffett predicted the whole oil industry would be in real trouble by 2025 because of greed, he said artificially high oil and gasoline prices will force people to drive smaller and eventually electric automobiles, In an interview Buffett said he cringed when he saw what it cost to fill up his 1997 gas guzzling Cadillac. "I like a big car, I'm old fashioned, I feel safe and it's the American way" says Buffett. "but I also know the average american can't waste money on gas for a large car"

Of course a few years later Buffett would make billions on electric automobile's, solar and wind power.

As for turning Alberta into another Silicon Valley for high-tech innovation or equivalent?

Seriously, no offence to our home but Alberta is no California and never will be, Alberta's economy was built on Oil and it'll die on Oil. why? because it's cold,dry, has no ocean and is too far away from the major population centers.
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Old 05-06-2017, 06:12 PM   #32
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Simply based on this map of where the sun's energy is the most potent in Canada:



Wouldn't solar be a good place for Alberta to invest? I believe Germany is there as a comparison as about 7% of their energy is solar. I couldn't find an exact number for Canada but I read that solar, wind, tidal, and biomass combined equal three percent of our energy.
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Old 05-06-2017, 06:19 PM   #33
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You can look at R&D of the auto manufacturers and the automotive supply chain (as well as the R&D at universities) that will give you an idea of what is coming down the pipeline.
But again you're talking about the sale of passenger cars. What about trucking? Is it even feasible to assume that 18 wheelers are going to go electric in the foreseeable future? And how long would that take; it's not like companies are going to just scrap their perfectly viable fleets. Are governments going to just ditch their vehicles for electric ones? They don't necessarily have a lot of downtime for charging up... There are so many things like this.
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Old 05-06-2017, 06:28 PM   #34
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Every major manufacturer in the world has been sinking millions/billions into EV technology for at least five years. 2030 seems optimistic for them to become "oil industry killing" to me too, but no way it's going to take 43 more years for them to become the norm.
Because as we've learned in the last 50 years....auto manufacturers are very great at making smart business decisions.

What do they care, lose money, get bailed out.

I think it's ridiculous that people actually believe that EV will be that popular in 13 years. North America isn't the only place that people drive cars and I bet all these "save the earth" people who love electric cars won't make the switch when the time comes where the price point is even at 30K.

Our dependence of oil will be our downfall and it won't be because of electric vehicles.

Who knows, maybe it helps Alberta if they stop over supplying the market and the price goes up again.
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Old 05-06-2017, 06:29 PM   #35
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Remember the paperless office? Paper companies were going to go out of business. I mean, everyone was going to do everything online.

I think this is going to be quite similar to that. Ride sharing, electric vehicles, they will be a major component in a person's transportation mix.

But entirely gone? Not a chance.

As for the paperless office, we use more paper in offices now than in the 80's.

https://www.wired.com/insights/2014/...ld-pipe-dream/
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Old 05-06-2017, 06:31 PM   #36
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If your transportation bill dropped by 75-90% with an acceptable service? You'd switch...


Yeah, good one.

Is half the population going to work for Uber? Don't see how everyone gets around without owning a car if they don't want to use public transit.
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Old 05-06-2017, 08:20 PM   #37
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Yeah, good one.

Is half the population going to work for Uber? Don't see how everyone gets around without owning a car if they don't want to use public transit.
The projection is that the cars are autonomous, electric and provided a-la-carte
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Old 05-06-2017, 08:28 PM   #38
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As fewer cars travel more miles, the number of passenger vehicles on American roads will drop from 247 million in 2020 to 44 million in 2030.
LOL I almost stopped reading right there as that article is click bait as this guy is on crack. We are only a few years from 2020 right now EV's account for 1% of all new car sales. Bloomberg estimates EV will account for 35% of new cars sales 2040 which is more realistic;

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/...energy-analyst
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Old 05-06-2017, 08:43 PM   #39
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LOL I almost stopped reading right there as that article is click bait as this guy is on crack. We are only a few years from 2020 right now EV's account for 1% of all new car sales. Bloomberg estimates EV will account for 35% of new cars sales 2040 which is more realistic;

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/...energy-analyst
So you decide what's more realistic based on what you think is more realistic?

Your own source, bloomberg, additionally reports a displacement of 2 million barrels by 2023, which equals the glut causing the 2014 crisis. Thats 6 years away. You can waive your hands saying it isn't happening, but that doesn't make it so.

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Last year EV sales grew by about 60 percent worldwide. Thatís an interesting number, because itís also roughly the annual growth rate that Tesla forecasts for sales through 2020, and itís the same growth rate that helped the Ford Model T cruise past the horse and buggy in the 1910s. For comparison, solar panels are following a similar curve at around 50 percent growth each year, while LED light-bulb sales are soaring by about 140 percent each year.

Yesterday, on the first episode of Bloombergís new animated series Sooner Than You Think, we calculated the effect of continued 60 percent growth. We found that electric vehicles could displace oil demand of 2 million barrels a day as early as 2023. That would create a glut of oil equivalent to what triggered the 2014 oil crisis.
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-ev-oil-crisis/

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Old 05-06-2017, 09:00 PM   #40
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I thought the economy was already dead!
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