Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[DownhillGoat]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

There's no real reason to drill at previous levels when transport levels like rail are already over capacity.

What about the fancy new pipeline we bought?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Lubicon

This certainly isn't going to help. 2019 drilling forecast has been lowered, and this year was bad to begin with.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4625134/p...forecast-2019/

This will help currently operating companies as it will decrease the glut of WCS on the market. Bad for drilling and service companies

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by GGG

This will help currently operating companies as it will decrease the glut of WCS on the market. Bad for drilling and service companies

That was what I should have stated when I posted the link. The service industry has been decimated, this is only going to make it worse. If/when activity picks up Operators may be surprised to find there is no capacity to support their activity levels.

[Mr.Coffee]

Capital costs have already decreased significantly. Anyway as has been said before, WCS isn’t the only thing people drill for. NGL’s have kinda been the life line for a lot of companies over the last couple years since gas has been in the gutter but even now you’re seeing long and overextended markets for those products which is not helpful.

But, looking like gas will be somewhat under supplied this winter. Issue is our ability to get gas online is so high that even very moderate price increases see a sharp acceleration in activity.

Canada’s oil patch just has a couple tough years in front of it I think.

[Ashasx]

Vivian Krause (https://twitter.com/FairQuestions) made a Twitter thread in response to this tweet by Rachel Notley (nothing negative, just referencing). Here is a readable version:

Premier Notley,

I wish you great success not only for Alberta but for Canada.

I fully agree with you that the case needs to be made to all that the Alberta oil industry will meet Canadians very high expectations for stewardship of the environment. That must be done. But, while it’s necessary to earn the confidence of Canadians, that’s not sufficient. At this point, I believe that the funding and the outside interests must also be addressed.

This has become a rite of passage.

For more than 10 years - TEN YEARS, a group of foundations, mostly from California (except the Rockefellers), has been running a very well-funded, multi-million dollar, international, hard hitting campaign against Alberta oil.

For TEN YEARS.

At first there was no information available about this campaign. Over the years, various documents have become available, including this, the campaign’s original strategy paper:http://www.offsettingresistance.ca/T...yPaper2008.pdf

But for years, we didn’t know what the campaign was really about. Was it against @NorthernGateway, or KXL or @TransMtn? We didn’t know.

But now we do.

Now we know because the guy (Michael Marx) who has been running the #TarSandsCampaign since it began, he said last fall (or thereabouts), that from the get-go, the campaign strategy has been to “land-lock” Alberta crude. See: https://corpethics.org/the-tar-sands-campaign/

Pretty clear, no?

Since you took charge, Premier Notley, you’ve done so much.

- You put on a carbon cap.

- You increased the carbon tax.

- You created the world’s largest boreal forest preserve.

You’ve done everything the activists asked for - but still, the activism against Alberta goes on.

When you introduced your Climate Plan, back in 2015, I was hopeful that it would be a turning point. Sad to say, that didn’t happen. Funds for land-locking Alberta crude keeps pouring in. Here’s the most recent from @RockBrosFund, May of this year: https://www.rbf.org/grantees/new-ven.../grants/18-163

As you know well, it’s hard to solve a problem that we misunderstand. This is why it’s important that the activism against Alberta oil is properly understood. Alas, there are many misconceptions. Take for example, the myth that the big bucks behind Tides is George Soros. Not so. Actually, the big money behind Tides isn't George Soros. Its Google.

But who knew?!

Here's an excerpt from Google Foundation's 2016 tax return showing payment to Tides (@TidesCommunity) for US$69 MILLION (2016):



Needless to say, it’s important for all us Canucks, especially our leaders, to be aware of the magnitude of what we are up against if we are serious about breaking the U.S. monopoly on our oil. Let’s be frank, that is what we are trying to do. Big challenge. HUGE. This is why we need to understand just how broad the campaign to land-lock Alberta crude actually is. Take the Fed Court of Appeal’s ruling in August re: @TransMtn. That application was brought about as part of #TarSandsCampaign to land-lock your crude.

But again, who knew?

Here's another excerpt from a U.S. TAX RETURN wherein one of the groups funded as part of #TarSandsCampaign reports to the I.R.S. that they spent US$53,576 (2016) for the legal action the brought about the Fed Court of Appeal's ruling.



Pretty clear statements, no?

All of the reports, all of these protests, all of these stunts, all of these celebrity cameos were publicized as part of #TarSandsCampaign that explicitly aims to "land-lock" Alberta crude. Again, read more here: https://corpethics.org/the-tar-sands-campaign/

As far as I can tell, the U.S. funders of activism against Alberta oil have 4 main goals, and actually, I think we can agree on 3 out of 4: Renewable energy, energy efficiency & energy security, that’s all good. Let’s work together on that.

BUT, we must not allow our country to be bullied out of the global oil market - least of all by U.S. interests that are doing NOTHING to land-lock their own crude.

#TarSandsCampaign isn’t helping the environment one bit.

It’s time that #TarSandsCampaign comes to an end.

Premier Notley, I admire your approach: Fair. Firm. I believe in you, Premier Notley. I am confident that you & your team actually, really could break the U.S. monopoly on our oil than is keeping Canada over a barrel. No small task.

Glad to help.

[8sPOT]

Ugh we are in for a long ####ty road here.

Even if its announced today that a pipeline will be built to the West coast, that'll take what 3-5 years to build?

Not looking good at all. If the government goes ahead an mandates all companies cutback production, companies like Suncor are not going to be pleased and likely further their capital spending outside of Canada.

Really is embarrassing as a country that we can't just get our most valuable and profitable commodity to market.

[SeeGeeWhy]

About time someone in industry stepped up and did something better with what is already at hand instead of blubbering like giant cry babies and blaming government and intervenors for their woes.

Enbridge might have a solution to add 500,000 bbl/d capacity optimizing existing lines with minimal investment and little to no regulatory approvals required.

REPORT - Markham Hislop Energi News

[Travis Munroe]

Without me going to google for the answer, does anyone know why google would be so heavily involved in funding "tides"? I don't understand what is in it for them.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Vivian Krause (https://twitter.com/FairQuestions) made a Twitter thread in response to this tweet by Rachel Notley (nothing negative, just referencing). Here is a readable version:

TL;DR

"You have to do something about the thing everyone who isnt an idiot knows about."

Its as though in order to save the rainforest they decided not to print the pamphlets that would show these people that they are being manipulated like Muppets with a hand so far up their ass it makes their mouths move.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Travis Munroe

Without me going to google for the answer, does anyone know why google would be so heavily involved in funding "tides"? I don't understand what is in it for them.

Larry Page is big into fuel cells and geothermal energy and clean energy. Little does he know duh duh duh that he's helping US Oil

[GGG]

Imperial’s Aspen project got approved today 2.6 billion, 75000bbls, online in 2022.

With Imperial these investments are required to compete globally. Alberta is still a competitive place to do business despite today’s challenges.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by GGG

Imperial’s Aspen project got approved today 2.6 billion, 75000bbls, online in 2022.

With Imperial these investments are required to compete globally. Alberta is still a competitive place to do business despite today’s challenges.

About balances Shell's imminent announcement that they are pulling out of Canadian Upstream I think.

Sidenote: I don't think Imperials project ever hits max capacity without pipelines actually getting built.

[Robbob]

I heard that Google actually has a Oil and Gas division.

[CaptainCrunch]

If only we could find a way to transport kittens and puppies down the pipeline.

[CaptainCrunch]

Well I'll be dipped



https://cloud.google.com/solutions/o...-and-analytics

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by Weitz

About balances Shell's imminent announcement that they are pulling out of Canadian Upstream I think.

Sidenote: I don't think Imperials project ever hits max capacity without pipelines actually getting built.

They have scaled back significantly to be sure, but as one of the major partners in the LNG project I don't see them leaving Canada entirely.

[DFO]

Originally Posted by Lubicon

They have scaled back significantly to be sure, but as one of the major partners in the LNG project I don't see them leaving Canada entirely.

They'll likely set up a Vancouver office for the LNG project

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Lubicon

They have scaled back significantly to be sure, but as one of the major partners in the LNG project I don't see them leaving Canada entirely.

LNG isn't upstream though.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Weitz

About balances Shell's imminent announcement that they are pulling out of Canadian Upstream I think.

Sidenote: I don't think Imperials project ever hits max capacity without pipelines actually getting built.

Yeah the 225,000 full build out plus the duplicate facilities they plan for other assets need egress to complete but this is significant that despite all of these challenges the largest O+G company in the world considers Alberta a competitive investment against all their other world wide options.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Weitz

LNG isn't upstream though.

Isn’t part of Shells role in the LNG project to provide gas to the LMG project?