The Matthew Tkachuk contract negotiations

[jlh2640]

To me he is worth 8.5 in this market no question, however we need to get rid of Frolik for it to happen

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Bingo

When did I say that?

Man this is getting silly. All I said is an offer sheet is unlikely. That teams that have space, are attractive, don't have their own RFA issues or an internal budget are not plentiful.

Would the Flames be in a bind if they signed Tkachuk to a 8x10M contract? For sure. But so too would any team, even if they tried to free up the space before the offer sheet.

you said it right here dude, like less than an hour ago

Originally Posted by Bingo

Plus the Flames would match almost anything under $10M and just sort their own cap space out as you say other teams would.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by jlh2640

To me he is worth 8.5 in this market no question, however we need to get rid of Frolik for it to happen

Honestly i dont think "this market" has been established yet.

If the speculation of Marner turning down 11 million per is accurate, then i think its safe to say that MT could very fairly say he is worth at least 9.5 per....should MM actually do better than the reported 11.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by jlh2640

To me he is worth 8.5 in this market no question, however we need to get rid of Frolik for it to happen

I imagine there are some other GMs who would just love to help BT out of his bind.

“Oh, salary trouble. I’d love to help out there Brad. Sure I’ll take Frolik off your hands, throw in Valimaki, and we get it done”

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

you said it right here dude, like less than an hour ago

For sure they'd match.

Doesn't mean it would be easy to get out from under it though.

But that difficulty wouldn't be much different than what other teams would face in trying to make the space to make the offer in the first place. Do they gut their team and hope the Flames don't match? Or do they go over too and then face the same situation Calgary would have.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Certainly better for the player than the team though. Players can still go overseas and earn money albeit at a greatly reduced amount.

Teams cant just plug in another guy who will contribute to winning now.

I think a single player’s value to team success might be overstated here. Especially a winger.

Going overseas is not as attractive a prospect as you think, either. Players get lost over there, career wise. There are vast differences in not only gross salary, but net recovery as well. There’s insurance, living cost, considerations. There’s the fact that most of those leagues operate at a quality that’s substandard. The KHL isn’t even what it was when Gio went.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Bingo

It's pressure both ways, but that's the change. The player used to hold all the cards until December 1st but now both have trouble fitting in what they want to get done if the season starts and time starts to tick.

A $8.5M cap hit for Tkachuk becomes $9.1M if he misses two weeks of the regular season. He misses a month and it's basically $10M

BTW Bingo, I don't know if you noticed but Frank Saravelli liked your "RFArmageddon" article so much that he ran the same piece for the Winnipeg Jets (the one team you did not include in your analysis) on TSN.com:

Why every day matters for Jets with Laine and Connor

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I agree that there is some small degree of risk to a really short term.

If the risk is injury, then the player probably wants at least 2 years over 1, as the recovery time for most serious but non career threatening injuries is on the order of months, so an injury in year 1 does not leave them injured and out of a contract

I don’t really expect that there is a very high probability of catastrophic/career ending injury.

I mean, how many players under 25 have actually had catastrophic career ending injuries in the past 10 years.

More to the point How many guys have their career years in their first 3 NHL seasons. That is a fairly long list.

Tkachuk has as great season as his 2nd year and he is looking at a 6x6 this time next year.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I think a single player’s value to team success might be overstated here. Especially a winger.

Going overseas is not as attractive a prospect as you think, either. Players get lost over there, career wise. There are vast differences in not only gross salary, but net recovery as well. There’s insurance, living cost, considerations. There’s the fact that most of those leagues operate at a quality that’s substandard. The KHL isn’t even what it was when Gio went.

For this to be true, then the Flames would be just as good without him this season....yes? No way to know for sure, but entirely improbable.

And I know all about players going overseas, and believe me its not that bad depending where they land. No they wont make as much money and in a case like MT substantially less, but the living conditions for these guys are top notch. Its harder for married guys with kids, but as a single guy, he would be just fine.

Though none of this will happen, but there are options for players that teams dont have, and thats OK.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by transplant99

For this to be true, then the Flames would be just as good without him this season....yes? No way to know for sure, but entirely improbable.

There might be some real estate between the two me thinks.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by transplant99

For this to be true, then the Flames would be just as good without him this season....yes? No way to know for sure, but entirely improbable.

And I know all about players going overseas, and believe me its not that bad depending where they land. No they wont make as much money and in a case like MT substantially less, but the living conditions for these guys are top notch. Its harder for married guys with kids, but as a single guy, he would be just fine.

Though none of this will happen, but there are options for players that teams dont have, and thats OK.

I don’t think they have to be “just as good”. Obviously Tkachuk in helps, but do this miss the POs without him? I think not. And he is looking to be paid like an indispensable man.

As for overseas teams, the KHL playing conditions are atrocious. And the living conditions are as well. Ask Commodore about life in the K. He can tell you about the team missing paycheques from time to time, and the crappy cities that he played in.

Switzerland living is better, but the league isn’t as good.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by transplant99

For this to be true, then the Flames would be just as good without him this season....yes? No way to know for sure, but entirely improbable.

And I know all about players going overseas, and believe me its not that bad depending where they land. No they wont make as much money and in a case like MT substantially less, but the living conditions for these guys are top notch. Its harder for married guys with kids, but as a single guy, he would be just fine.

Though none of this will happen, but there are options for players that teams dont have, and thats OK.

You can’t know what the Flames would be without Tkachuk, but I will offer this remark.

Sam Bennett played his rookie year with Backlund and Frolik, and had similar numbers to Tkachuk (who Gully put in Bennett’s slot the next season, in his rookie year).

Tkachuk saw a jump in year 2, with a top 6 role, while Bennett was given a bottom 6 role with rotating line mates

If Tkachuk holds out, to what extent would Bennett rebound with expanded role and better line mates ?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I have said all along, the negotiation is all about establishing market value and agreeing to term. I don’t expect Tkachuk to take under market value. The Flames have every right to only offer a short term contract which carries risk for both sides.

Isn't this is a significant part of the problem that you are ignoring? "Market value" seems to be very much in flux right now. Just look at the RFA deals signed in the last calendar year—they are all over the map from LeBlanc's one year, $1.0 m contract, to William Karlsson's eight-year deal, to Werenski's three-year deal with the massive qualifying commitment, to Auston Matthew's five-year premium. Of course, Tkachuk and his companion RFAs are all looking at Matthews's contract and expecting comparable compensation and term. But with the current ongoing negotiations the League is having with the NHLPA about escrow, the static salary cap, and the unique situation with so many young players missing from camp there IS NOT a set market. Tkachuk's side can believe with all their hearts that their ask is within "market value," but unless there is a party prepared too pay it, it's just an imaginary number. I think it is fairly clear that teams are much more reluctant to pay than you are assuming.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I don’t think they have to be “just as good”. Obviously Tkachuk in helps, but do this miss the POs without him? I think not. And he is looking to be paid like an indispensable man.

As for overseas teams, the KHL playing conditions are atrocious. And the living conditions are as well. Ask Commodore about life in the K. He can tell you about the team missing paycheques from time to time, and the crappy cities that he played in.

Switzerland living is better, but the league isn’t as good.

No, the KHL is not great...agreed. (A lot of it depends where you are playing though)

But the Swiss and German leagues are terrific places to play and certainly in Sweden and Finland.

Even lower leagues in Britain and Italy are great landing spots for a bunch of guys.

Again, WAY less money but truly great places to go play if you dont have other NA options.

Just for giggles, here is one guy i have known for many many years who didnt want to play in NA unless it was in the NHL though there was no chance he would ever get a shot back then as good as he was. The numbers are staggering and it wasnt great hockey overall...no question.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/p....php?pid=48311

His lifestyle while there was awesome though. The team provided housing/food and a Europass. So his work week was... play Friday and Saturday night. Leave Sunday for Italy or Amsterdam or somewhere in France or where ever with the other North Americans. The rest of the team would practice during the week without them...then they would come back Thursday and rinse and repeat. Didnt make a bunch of money and it was a very short season, but loved his time there. Lots of guys are still doing this. Stajan as an example last year.

[DeluxeMoustache]

From the other thread

Winnipeg made a short term offer to Laine around $5 M per

Originally Posted by MissTeeks

https://twitter.com/user/status/1172185613069672448

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

From the other thread

Winnipeg made a short term offer to Laine around $5 M per

Unless it was for about half a year, that won't get it done.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

You can’t know what the Flames would be without Tkachuk, but I will offer this remark.

Sam Bennett played his rookie year with Backlund and Frolik, and had similar numbers to Tkachuk (who Gully put in Bennett’s slot the next season, in his rookie year).

Tkachuk saw a jump in year 2, with a top 6 role, while Bennett was given a bottom 6 role with rotating line mates

If Tkachuk holds out, to what extent would Bennett rebound with expanded role and better line mates ?

Who knows....but i dont think there is even 1% chance he would reach Tkachuk levels of production. His hockey IQ just isnt at that kind of level IMO and really doubt it ever will be or even get close.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Who knows....but i dont think there is even 1% chance he would reach Tkachuk levels of production. His hockey IQ just isnt at that kind of level IMO and really doubt it ever will be or even get close.

I think you are right, but I'm also convinced that Bennett (our whoever) would not need to replace Tkachuk in order for the Flames to make the playoffs. They were clear of the mark by 12 wins and 17-points. The Flames had a +62 goal-differential. I don't think there is any question they are a worse team with Tkachuk out of the lineup, but I am also quite confident that he doesn't on his own make so much of a difference as to have them suddenly wrangling with Arizona and. Vancouver for a playoff berth. It's still a playoff team.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Unless it was for about half a year, that won't get it done.

Point is, GMs not named Chiarelli and Dumbass are still contributing to establishing the market

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I mean, who cares what Tkachuk does if he holds out.

What I care about is do the Flames even make the playoffs without him?

Do you sacrifice a season in your winning window to send a message to Tkachuk or to avoid having to eat a pick to move Frolik?

Seems downright idiotic.

The best regular season team in the western conference a year ago isn't a playoff team without Matthew Tkachuk?

I disagree.